The 68 pick is worth 250 pts according to the Jimmy Johnson chart. That would get the Jets from 18 to 13. There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that the chart is inaccurate in terms of value represented by the picks and that lower round picks are actually undervalued by it. Here's one link that is going to have so much math it will make just about anybody but Statjeff's head explode. http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_JQAS_NFL_Draft.pdf Trying to read it made my head explode and so I have no clue if it's accurate or not but clearly something that Jimmy Johnson made up to further his trading strategy isn't likely to be more accurate so it's a good counterpoint to look at. To cut to the chase, it suggests there is very little actual difference in the value of the 18 and 13 picks when you look at player achievement over the course of their careers. The actual value difference between those two picks according to the study is less than half a 7th round pick. This fits my bias towards not trading up and so I'll bow to it. It also suggests that if you can trade down and give up Tavon Austin for E.J Manuel and Kiko Alonzo you are making out like a bandit but I think this is clear to all of us at this point. The Fins went the other way and made a trade up to the 3 last year, albeit a very cheap trade up. They got Dion Jordan. The Raiders got D.J Hayden and Menelik Watson out of the deal. This should be a no-brainer win for the Fins but it's still not clear who got the better part of the deal.
You could say the same thing about the Alabama game(s). Manziel was dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand during the LSU game is if I remember correctly. I think you said it best ir paragraph. Nobody really knows where he is going and whether a team will fall in love with him or not.
If Manziel drops to 18 there are NO options other than to run up to the dais with our card and take him. _
Disagree wholeheartedly. He seems like a head case who's not mature enough for the NFL. There's a lot more to being an NFL QB than eye-popping college numbers or winning the Heisman as a freshman. I would be thrilled to watch him fall to the Jets, have fans clamoring for him, and watch him go right on by to #19. Maybe he'll be amazing. I just think he's going to be a tremendous bust.
That's fair. The flip side is (i) what some view as immaturity is actually a confidence beyond the norm in his own incredible talents and (ii) this league is driven by superstar QBs and you need to go and get one. He's either going to be a superstar or not, you don't win by "building" around a mediocre QB and hope to get by with defense. Look at the playoff teams left--not one of those guys is mediocre. We're grooming the next Andy Dalton. I'd like to groom the next Russell Wilson or Drew Brees. _
I totally agree with that, but I'm not sure what gives you the idea that Manziel as anything like Brees or Wilson other than being short. Let's start with the fact that Wilson and Brees are not on the same level. Wilson has a ton of potential. I like Wilson a lot. I think he's got a great knack for the game, is very talented, and has a very high football IQ. All things that I think will help him succeed in the NFL despite his height. But I'm not ready to put him on the level with Brees, and quite honestly, I don't think I can say that Wilson is automatically going to be a better QB than Geno. He had a better rookie year with a better surrounding cast and from all accounts, he studied his ass off. He's done great, but (for the most part), the Seahawks have not asked Wilson to put them on his back. He puts up rock solid numbers, but they're game manager numbers. He's as good of a game manager as there is out there, but that's still what he is at the time being. I would take Russell Wilson over Geno in a heartbeat right now, but I don't think his ceiling is any higher than Geno's nor do I think putting Wilson on this team turns us into a Super Bowl contender. Throw Brees out the window for this argument. Everyone wants Drew Brees. Drew Brees is an amazing QB, who profiles out similar to Wilson in his game study and preparation, but he's just been around for so much longer and he IS the offense in New Orleans. So yes, he's everything that everyone wants in a QB and then some. He elevates the play of the players around him the same way Peyton and Brady have always done. I'd put Rodgers up there too. But that's just it. I'd say there's 4 QBs in the league right now that everyone wants. You're hoping to land that 1 QB that vaults you to the top 1/8 of the league. The chances of hitting one are so small that I just can't think along those lines for a player that comes with red flags. You see confidence. I see Ryan Leaf's attitude. I don't remember Brees having that mentality coming out of Purdue. I know Wilson didn't have that mentality. The two guys you mentioned are known for being students of the game, hard workers. Maybe you know a lot more about Manziel than I do, but media reports have never really shown that side of him. Just a super talented kid that hasn't quite matured yet. Maybe kind of like RGIII? So sure, I think there's potential for him to be a superstar, but I'd rather get a guy that is known for his work ethic in at QB, not the superstar with video game college numbers and a history of rubbing people the wrong way. Which again, Geno comes off as more like the latter from what I stated, so I'm not advocating anything more than giving him some more time, but I think I just see too many red flags with Manziel's hype. He's too cocky, too proud of himself, and I think if you don't have some humility coming into the league, it's tough to be a true leader on a team.
Welcome back JStokes. I agree with you. If Manziel is there at 18, we should grab him. But he will be picked in the Top 5 most likely.
Watch his Manziels highlights before anyone says we should take him...they are absurd..absolutely absurd. I have never seen anyone with pocket presence like him and his ability to keep plays alive and make plays. I really like Geno and would be happy if he is our guy of the future but if we go for Manziel I would be thrilled. Qbs are like pitchers in baseball you can't have too many and they are worth their weight in gold for trade value.
Tim Tebow is unstoppable on the football field, an absolute force of nature. That's what all the highlights of him said. I think Manziel is a great talent but I have no idea at all if that talent will translate to the NFL. Nobody does.
Excellent post. I agree with much of what you say. That said, I'm torn on Manziel. The kid has a ton of talent. I hate his attitude, but do think he could develop into a very good NFL starter, if not a star. OTOH, I could see him alienating his coaches and teammates too. I could also see him getting broken in half by some of the big, fast DL in the NFL, even with his instincts, quickness, scrambling ability, etc. He hasn't played against DL and LBs in college week in and week out like he will in the NFL, and that doesn't even include speedy blitzing DBs who can hit like a ton of bricks. My opinion is likely to change several times between now and the draft, but at this point, unless the Jets just absolutely hate him, I think that if he drops to #18 and Idzik is anywhere near as committed to his BPA philosophy as he claims to be, they'll have to take him if they aren't blown away by a trade up offer by another team.
Except his teammates REVERED him and he became so much more of a leader this year even in the face of adversity. The Wilson/Brees comparisons are thrown out there obviously because of the height thing, but some Geno apologists will inevitably throw out there the Flutie comparisons to shoot him down. He's not Flutie. He has better legs than either Brees or Wilson but not quite the arm of either but he also has some talent that defies comparison for either of them--a he's a guy with an innate ability matched with legs and arm talent. Nobody knows what he's going to become, I just want to have a true franchise guy rather than build around a flawed low football IQ guy. Pretty passes whilst under no pressure and with feet set does not make a guy you can count on long term. Give me a guy who can make pretty passes with no rush and feet set AS WELL as a guy who can create on his own and I'll be happy. _
Fair points. Maybe it's just me, but I prefer a guy with humility and a desire to learn. Maybe I'm wrong about Manziel's personality, but I don't see that in him. And maybe he was a great leader at A&M, but it's different being a leader over freshmen and sophomores as opposed to being a rookie in the NFL. Unless you prove yourself worthy of being full of yourself immediately, they'd turn on you in a heartbeat I'd bet. I would think that an NFL vet would prefer a humble rookie who wants to improve over what I perceive to be Manziel's hubris.
The Manziel talk is compelling, but IMO, it's a moot point. Johnny Boy will be a top 10 pick, as long as he doesn't do anything else stupid in the next 4 months.
I think our problem, from afar, is not really having any idea how he's actually perceived by players and coaches and people around him. We may perceive him as a d-bag but he might actually be a guy people rally around. Or we may perceive him as a great leader and he might actually live up to the d-bag hype. I don't think anyone knows whether he's a guy that has "a desire to learn" or a guy who thinks he knows it all. His persona may be masking a deep football desire. Or not. Some folk hate him here because they perceive him as an a-hole. Do they really know? Haters gonna hate and there is a fair amount of people out there--and here--that are just hoping he fails because that's just the way they are. Folks like to see stars up on pedestals fail for no reason other than they don't like them. I would like nothing more than to see a guy come in here, take this team and town by storm and become THE man for the Jets for the next 12 years. Not happening I know, he's not falling to 18 and we're not moving up for him, but man wouldn't that be nice to finally have a star franchise QB giving you a shot to compete every week, that you can't wait to see what he's going to do next? _
He lives on the edge, so he could become a knucklehead, you never know. That Manning camp shit didn't help his rep.
