All well and good, and I'm not knocking McDonald because I do think he's going to become the best pass rusher we've had since Abraham, but this TPS stat: "...“true pass sets” (TPS) – i.e. any passing plays in which there is no play action, no screen, no rollout, a time-to-throw between 2 and 4 seconds, and a rush of more than three players." is questionable as far as the NFL goes. How often will he see no play action, no roll outs, no screens and more than 3 seconds to get to the QB? Maybe you can say that his exceptionally high TPS win % simply shows that he has elite ability to get to the QB, but for most other pass rushers who are closer to the mean of 19.3% I don't think it means much.
This is why I don't pay all that much attention to any argument based off analytics even if it supports my team/player/theory. That would be like 10 snaps per game in the NFL. How about we just watch the tape, see his freakish speed, agility, "twitchiness and bend" and hope those elite traits translate...
jamal lewis came back strong year 1 too ... they should def ease him back in with a timeshare role tho
Agree. In the never ending search to quantify what is difficult, if not impossible, to accurately measure, we get lost in the statistical weeds. Stats can show trends and tendencies, and are useful up to a point, but people get too wrapped up in them and lose the big picture. "Forest for the trees syndrome" is what I call it. And this overreliance on stats is particularly inaccurate when it comes to evaluating "outliers" out of which often come the superstars. Not always, but often. People might be shocked to know that Babe Ruth was considered a "poor batsman" because he didn't go for contact like Ty Cobb and the great hitters of his era did. But people completely underestimated the impact of his HR hitting ability which revolutionized the game of baseball. More recently (relatively speaking) we saw the AFL and its "aerial circus" belittled by NFL purists who believed "3 yards and cloud of dust" and a strong defense was the only real way to win in the NFL. It took a few decades but the passing game now dominates football (too bad it took the Jets, one of the great passing teams of the AFL who abandoned it for the ground & pound approach, so long to catch up). Stats measure what has happened, not what will happen. It takes more than that to be able to figure out what to do next, it takes experience, subject specific knowledge, and a feel for the game, to be successful in identifying the best players for your system of play.
He did. I’m not going to pretend to know if the extra couple months of recovery helped… Breece has a lot of college miles on him; I 100% think the FO is doing everything they can to “not run him into the ground”. Starting him on IR would help for roster space, take some pressure off him, and put us all in a position to enjoy a big boost week 8.
I said this to @Borat in the Izzy thread and Jeremiah (who is very close with Douglas) confirms it… the fanbase had Jones rates higher than the front office did (ignore the “wonder where” thing, just the tweeter referencing an old tweet of his saying he met Schefter who told him the same)
I think at this point we will never know for sure what would have happened. I would love to see Jets draft board - maybe Woody can flash it like Jerry Jones did But everything is possible. We could have taken Gibbs, McDonald even with Jones there. Jeremiah is certainly pretty plugged in. At this point I am rooting for McD to be what Saleh and JD said he will be. Gain weight and become Von Miller. The good news is that the Jets are still looking at OT options in free agency, looks like Denver guy is coming for a visit.
Never forget that the Jets Marketing Dept is among the best in the NFL. It's the only thing Woody has done right.
https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/will-mcdonald-has-a-flair-for-the-spectacular https://www.nfl.com/prospects/will-mcdonald-iv/32004d43-4459-9665-e69d-a74762fc7e67 McDonald had 10 career forced fumbles, a record at Iowa St. He also had 34 career sacks, again an Iowa St. record and tied for the Big 12 record. From the first link above: When asked about his penchant at Iowa State for forced fumbles, Will McDonald IV, the Jets' first-round selection from Iowa State, shed light on his mindset in life. "You just don't want to go out there and do you job," he told reporters. "You kind of want to be spectacular at it, so you can make plays. You just don't want to be another body out there. Working on those things throughout all these years definitely paid off." "Everything I did with jiu-jitsu, basketball and wrestling, I take everything to the field," he said. "I'm not just out there trying to tackle people. I'm trying to get the ball out; I'm trying to score a touchdown. I'm using all of that in one category. I feel like I have a big advantage on that towards other people, but I just try to be the versatile player I can be for my team." I think that his ability to force fumbles will be huge for our D. Other teams have always seem to have players that had a knack for creating TOs, and I can't even remember the last Jet defender that had that ability. I also think his speed will cause a lot of offensive holding penalties. I know that right now a lot of Jets fans are upset either because we didn't get an OL or take JSN, but I think in time we could all be very glad that Will McDonald is a Jet.
Trading down takes a trade partner. I think the reason the Jets took the full 10 minutes for their pick is that JD was trying to secure a trade down and couldn't find anyone willing to move up or get value in return. McDonald is an Edge, not a LB, although he may drop into coverage occasionally.
What was JD supposed to do? All of the top OTs were gone once Pittsburgh traded up ahead of the Jets. Was he supposed to reach for an OT? I think he got a steal with Carter Warren in the 4th round. In fairness, you probably posted this before the Jets took Warren.
With the Jets' need at DT, and Saleh's wanting great depth at every spot on the DL, one has to think that the Jets would have taken Kancey if they thought he was a better prospect than McDonald. Evidently, they didn't like his lack of size or something about him. Also, Saleh mentioned that they expect to have more 4th qtr. leads with AR at QB, and so will have more opportunities to rush the opposing QB, and having more fresh pass rushers will be important, especially one with McDonald's speed. He also has a knack for creating forced fumbles, so that could be huge for us. We don't have any D players presently that have been great at causing forced fumbles. Quincy Williams may have been the best we had at that. McDonald looks to do that. I think his speed will also cause a lot of offensive holding penalties.
Excellent post! Thanks! Your point about the quality of the OTs in this draft is spot on! This was thought to be a weak draft, and supposedly many, if not most, NFL GMs felt like there were only 10-12 players in this draft worthy of a 1st round grade. All of the OTs had question marks about them. None were a Orlando Pace (or name your favorite great OT) quality prospect.
I hope that's the case. I like Huff too and as I've already said, you can never have enough pass rushers.
It doesn't matter one iota what the media "experts" think or how their scouting reports read on players. It's what the Jets' scouts, CS and GM think about prospects. The media experts are wrong much of the time. Even scouts, GMs, and CSs are wrong too, but they're right a whole lot more than the media.
Of course the preference these days is that a 1st round pick be a day one starter, but in the not too distant past, many, if not most, 1st round picks didn't start. Most HCs preferred starting veterans over rookies. Every player and every position is different. One doesn't draft a player just for day one of the season. McDonald has the potential to be a true force as a pass rusher and he has a penchant for forcing fumbles. The Jets have lacked playmakers who can create TOs. McDonald can give us one. He will be a starter by next season, maybe even by mid-season. Also, look at how few (relatively speaking) snaps Quinnen Williams has played with Saleh as HC. Saleh wants to run waves of fresh players at opponents. He's not the type of HC or DC who has his starters that play the majority of the snaps every week.
