After looking over everyones posts and messing around with the yahoo playoff simulator. I think its absolutely necessary the Steelers win on sunday. For one thing, we need the bengals to lose two games. If the bengals and jets both finish 11-5 the bengals will still have the tiebreaker over us. But if the bengals lose two of their remaining AFC games the jets can still lose to the Giants or Eagles and still win the tie breaker with the bengal and jets both at a 10-6 record. Also adding to this, if the steelers win on sunday over the bengals then it puts more pressure on the ravens to win the division reducing the chance they sit their starters in the last game against the bengals, something we may be in desperate need of.
For some reason, I am just not sold on Cincy. I know its been 12 weeks, but I think cincy will lose three out of the next 5. Steelers, Ravens, and Texans. I also think Jets will lose against Eagles or Giants. Jets will end up 10-6 and Cincy should end up 9-7 or 10-6, while we win the tie breaker if Cincy loses those three conference games I mentioned. Also, the Broncos can be a pain in the ass as well. Not a Tebow fan and I don't think this will work out much longer than the way it has been for him. I think Denver falters as well. I think these are two teams playing well above their talent level. It will even out by the time playoffs roll. Jet will get the 6th seed and will possibly play Oakland.
I'm with you on Ciny ... I think they lose at least 6 games and maybe 7. I'm not worried about Denver either. The biggest problem we have is Tennessee. it was a killer for us that they came back against gutless Tampa. Even if they lose to the Saints for their 6th loss, we still need them to drop one against Buffalo, Indy, Jacksonville or Houston ... not exactly Murderer's Row. Especially since Houston has no QB and they get to play them in Week 17 when you never know who will sit. If we both finish 10-6, they're in and we go home based on our 5 conference losses against their 4. This is by far our biggest concern. I can't believe nobody is mentioning it.
Well if everone is 10-6, cincy is in... So we have to win out, because one of Cincy/Dnever/Tennesee is going to be 10-6, and in each case we lose. The only realistic shot (without tons and tons of help) for us to get in, is to win out. Unless everybody collapses around us. Cincy would need to lose 3 of 5, denver and tenn 2 of 5 gainst not great teams. All possible, but it certainly would be better if we just ended t 11-5 regardless.
The Jets best chance to make the playoffs this season is that two teams in the AFC North finish 10-6, knocking one of them out before their superior tiebreakers get compared to the Jets. It's a pipedream to think the Bengals will finish 9-7 or worse at this point. They'd have to totally collapse to do that and one thing that's clear about the Bengals this year is that they're fighters who have not had a blowout loss all season. They're going to go 10-6 or 11-5. We need another AFC North team there at 10-6 to knock them out or get knocked out by them.
Yes we do, if you assume the Jets go 11-5. Oakland will be 7-5, if they lose. They will need to lose another game to not win the division, which means 10-6, or worse.
The problem is, if the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Steelers probably don't have 2 more losses in them. San Francisco, sure, but Cleveland and St. Louis probably aren't beating them. The best chance the Jets have is for Cincy to lose both of its rivalry games. Week 17 might not matter for Baltimore, so hopefully they drop one of their next 4 games to keep Pittsburgh within striking distance, or Pitt beats SF. The chances of Pitt losing 3 more games than the Jets is nearly impossible (CIN, CLE, at SF, STL, at CLE). If Pitt, Cincy, and the Jets are all 11-5, it looks like the Jets are left out. The easiest path to get in is if Cincy loses twice to PIT, HOU, BAL, and the Jets win their AFC games. Everything else is window-dressing probably.
The Bengals aren't going to lose to Houston with a revolving QB. They're not likely to lose to Baltimore at home at the end of the year. If the Jets chances come down to those two games we're probably screwed at this point. Realistically the tiebreakers are so messed up for us at this point that we're probably screwed no matter what. One scenario that fixes a lot of that is to have two teams tie-breaking without the Jets involved. Having two of the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals at 10-6 is the best path because it just doesn't matter how they got there, the fact that they're tied for a wild-card at 10-6 probably gets us in.
Perfectly happy if this (although I would rather see the Giants get in over the Cowboys but whatever).
I tell u folks as long as we beat the giants in fairly convincing fashion - i could live with losing out on this tiebreaking non-sense.
yeah that was a tough call, it all came down to a cowboys x giants and, given the way the giants usually suck at the end of the season, i chose the cowboys to win it
oh yes thats right, in my simulator, cincy would lose to both the ravens and the steelers, therefore finishing 3-2, but yes, cincy finishing 4-1 is VERY possible, even more now that the texans lost schaub. well damn, those are gonna be some tough 5 weeks
honestly I'm mot sure if anything you just wrote here is correct. especially the part about us losing 10-6 tiebreakers to Cincy and Tennessee. what are you basing that statement on? I'm pretty sure it's incorrect on both counts based on common opponents. I think the Buffalo-Tennessee game this week might decide our fate. if Buffalo beats them for their 6th loss we'll be in pretty good shape.
I dunno, maybe it's just me but I don't think the Titans will be an issue. They definitely lose to Saints IMO and playing Bills and Texans I think they lose at least one of those. That would leave them at 9-7. It also may help that they play Texans in week 17, which gives the Texans time to get their act together. And the Bills may very well be out for blood this coming weekend after their loss to us. Broncos definitely don't go 11-5, is there really any way they beat the Pats? I don't see it. And between Bears (despite Cutler being out) and Bills I see them losing at least one, going 9-7. I think Cincy is clearly what we have to worry about, because they MUST lose 2 AFC games if we go 10-6 (our loss would have to be to an NFC team), or any 2 games if we're 11-5. But this is a team that barely scraped by the Browns last week. Very likely they lose to Ravens and Steelers IMO and Texans is a possibility. If we go 11-5 (clearly optimistic) we more than likely only have to worry about Bengals dropping any 2. But the way I see things playing out our chances really aren't much worse at 10-6. Again, that loss can't be AFC (Fins or Chiefs). Yes it sucks that we must have the Bengals lose 2, but I think the chances aren't bad at all and it does help that their most likely losses are all 3 AFC teams. This is my understanding of the situation at least, but please correct me if I made any mistakes. Honestly at this point, although I'll be following the other teams in question, I'm mostly paying attention to us.
You guys have way more faith in the Bengals than I do. Someone said it's a pipe dream for the Bengals to go 9-7. Really? You think it's that farfetched they lose to superior teams (Bengals, Steelers, Texans, don't care that they don't have a QB. Their running game and defense are still great.)
