After the Milano Crunch hit on Zach and during the ensuing Bills possession, Allen scrambled up the middle and JJ caught him and slammed him face down into the turf. That was the start of the flaky play by Allen. As it turns out, Jermaine Johnson seems to really enjoy physically abusing Josh Allen. I like that.
Stud: As strong as we are running behind AVT/Becton.... Dud: I saw far too many runs to the left. 3 in a row at one point that went nowhere.
Just to add to the Quincy Williams STUD He was targeted 10 times and only allowed 1 first down and it wasn’t even his fault. He was electric. Didn’t miss a tackle either
As long as we're talking about risk/reward plays here would anyone care to revisit the last play of regulation? Tie score. Two seconds left to play, following the Bills field goal the Jets come out for first and ten at their own 25 and take a knee. What if...? The Jets take a little extra time and come out and start to line up in protection mode to take the knee, but those aren't the guys on the field? Surprise! Instead it's the guys who would be used for a hail mary and they spread into that positioning. The Bills had no timeouts left and couldn't stop the clock, would they be prepared to defend a bomb - who do they have on the field? Would they jump offside? (Actually that's probably the smartest thing they could have done). Would they commit a pass interference down near the goal line? What if the pass only went fifty yards and they got called for pass interference? A field goal wins the game! What could go wrong for the Jets? A bad snap fumble? The defense would probably be confused as to whether to rush or drop back into coverage giving Wilson more time than he had all night. We all remember his pro day pass that got him the job and guys have been calling for it since he got here. An interception? No problem unless it was run back 80 -100 yards. Tell me I'm crazy but I see the upside at about 99 1/2 percent and the downside at about a half.
and i get that, but we don't know the situation in full. i'm not going to risk my RB against drs orders to win 1 game. his long term health is more important.
not gonna lie, when allen fumbled the ball, i felt it could have been a concussion. he had the eyes that looked lost. IDK if he was shook or suffered a mild concussion
From LinkedIn: According to ESPN, only 9.7% of Hail Mary attempts are completed. Between 2009 and 2020, there were 193 attempts with 16 produced touchdowns. In 2021, there’s been a couple. NFL Next Gen’s Stats web site calculated a probability of 9.9% to complete the one from Saints against Washington in October of this year. So, although rather improbable, there are still 1 chance in 10 to complete it. Is it worth trying? And are the teams lucky when they make the touchdown? That's a lot more than "close to zero" and it's just for scoring the TD, so the chance of a downfield penalty setting up a field goal attempt expands the success rate, probably dramatically. An offsides just makes it so you take the knee the second time around. For some perspective, last season there were 56 onside kicks attempted with a success rate of 5.3% and the fear of someone getting hurt will do little to curtail that play.
The relevant percentage would be the percentage of plays that result in a score in any fashion (including a FG after a penalty) from a team's own 25 yard line when the defense is in prevent mode. That is far lower than 10%. The team that made a mistake by not being bold was Buffalo - when they won the toss in OT, they should have opted to kick, since in that circumstance the only way they lose without getting the ball back is if the Jets score a touchdown on their first drive (or on a kickoff return, but we know that kickoff returns are basically gone now), something I think we all agree would not be very likely for the Zach Wilson-led Jets against a good Buffalo defense. The most likely outcomes by far would be that the Jets would punt, and then Buffalo would only need a FG to win, or the Jets would kick a FG, and then Buffalo would only need a FG to keep the game going and a TD to win it. In other words, exactly what happened for the Jets, for the same reason (an excellent Jets defense stopping Buffalo and setting up the chance for the Jets to get the ball back). If the Jets would have won the toss they probably would have opted to receive (because that's what you do), and IMO that would have been a mistake, so I'm glad that Buffalo won it and made the mistake for them.
But that's just the point, they would not have been expecting anything other than a kneeldown, especially if the offense did not hurry onto the field. and once they saw it they could do little about it with no timeouts left unless somebody had enough presence to just blast across the line before the snap. I agree with your call on Buffalo's choice to receive. I don't think there's enough use of the element of surprise today but understand that often it's the team trying to pull off the surprise that screws up its own timing or communication.
Spot on. My father said this to me as we were sitting in the stands. There was such a slim chance that we would have went down and scored a TD.
I did say yesterday that fortune favors the bold... but I just happened to be watching the end of regulation when I read your post and saw that the Bills had their defense set for just that situation.
While the defense did play great... the last drive by the Bills to take the lead was kinda soft. No real pressure on Allen and Diggs was singled the entire drive.
What drive are you talking about? The one where we were up 16-13 with 1:48 and we let the Bills toe the game?
Not sure if you noticed it or not, but it was weird seeing Ulbrich consistently bring pressure on that drive. They were going for the kill and kept bring a corner or safety or the edge. They still held them to a 50 yarder to tie the game, just bad luck it doinked in.
I'll watch it again. But I will say our defensive series in overtime was stellar... as was Xavier's punt* return. *leg whip my ass
The biggest thing with Quincy is consistency. He had great games last year and other games where he disappeared. We need to strap AirPods into his ears during games and let him listen to Thunderstruck all game long.
