I'm not sure where that idea about talent being maximized comes from. Talent wise our defense is miles better than a lot of teams giving up less points. We give up 22.2 points per game exactly the same as the Patriots. Now how many Patriots would start for us? Wilfork over Pouha, Mayo over Scott, and Chung (if healthy) over Smith. Some might make a case for McCourty over Cro. This defense isn't overperforming it's talent, it is playing at or below it, and getting no scheme pressure which is supposed to be Ryan's specialty.
10 wins will get someone in, but not necessarily the Jets. If the Bengals, Titans and Ravens. or any 2 of those win 10 each we are going golfing on the tiebreakers in all likelihood.
the bengals still have to play the steelers again, then the ravens twice, the titans would almost have to win out.
The Titans would have to win exactly the same number of games as us. We have identical records. 5-2 gets them in over us. Not saying we can't get in, but the idea that 10 wins gets us set is not really true. Bengals schedule is not that tough. They have CLE, ARI, @STL, that should get them 9, then they need one out of @BAL, @PIT, HOU, BAL to be in the playoffs. The big advantage the North Teams have is a 1 game lead in the standings, and significantly better conference records. 11 Wins is likely the Jets magic number, 10 is doable if both losses are to NFC teams and we get some help.
