And so Mayfield is automatically in that percentage and is going to be as bad as Leaf? WTF type of an argument is that?
Go back less than six months and all the "Experts" are saying he's a second round developmental player that has and interesting skill set. What happened between then and now? What makes him all of a sudden a top 5 pick?
Just going out on a limb, but I'd say an excellent senior year which culminated in a Heisman and National Title contention may have boosted him a round in value..
Barkley is arguably the best back but I don't think the difference between him and the next 3-4 is that significant. Great draft for running backs. Best case for all of these guys...(my opinion based on a lot of reading....particularly Matt Waldman's RSP....well worth it if you're looking for some fun deep reading before the draft...been reading his stuff for about a decade now. https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/) Rosen - High Floor, Decent Ceiling - somewhere in the neighborhood of Matt Ryan....probably will make a pro bowl or two if they keep the right tools around him Darnold - lower floor than rosen, slightly higher ceiling - Jay cutler consistency in an aaron rodgers style QB....probably some pro bowls with the right tools around him but there will be some ugliness from time to time Lamar Jackson - very low floor, possibly highest ceiling - Vick without all the character issues. His wonderlic is disconcerting but his game tape from this past year makes me feel better about it. pro bowls with the right tools/coaching Mayfield - reasonable floor, moderate ceiling - (Jeff Garcia not Drew Brees) - adequate starter but probably never a pro-bowler Josh Allen - reasonable floor, limited ceiling (Joe Flacco) - adequate starter but probably never a pro-bowler Only one I'd be unhappy with at 3 is allen. He should be a 2nd or 3rd rounder.
I would argue that Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield all have very high floors but only moderate ceilings (which is fine, you can win with an above average QB in the league such as prime Flacco and Ryan), while Allen has a very low floor, but the highest ceiling of any QB (more athletic Big Ben).
I do actually agree with most of your points here, but there's a couple of things to consider: There is a huge difference is the success rate of QBs taken in the first round v.s all other rounds. I posted an article that proved this point some months back and if I can find it again I'll repost it, but citing a couple of exceptions does not prove the rule. For every Brady or Montana, there are scores of busts. The best odds of finding a FQB is in the top of the first round. The short productive shelf life of the other positions, especially RB, argues against getting them assembled and then looking for our FQB. By the time you find your guy - and if you draft him, then add in his development time - your foundation of good players begins to age-out, and that's not even accounting for injuries. Also, if you install a FQB and build the system up around him, then you have much better cohesiveness and production. For example, right now the Jets have a lot of receivers who are suited for deep passing, but not s much for a short passing rhythm approach. If you sign a QB to run this latter system, then you don't have the best receivers for it. Since your QB will be around the longest, it makes sense to build the system and players to his strengths. I agree fully that we don't have the right coaching and system in place, but we can't wait until we do.
LOL Yes, I said that my mind was likely to change some before the draft. Mayfield is still my unquestioned #1. Rosen is now #2. Darnold is #3 and Allen is #4, but I really don't want either of the last two. Barkley is not even a consideration. You need to forget that. Mac isn't gonna take Barkley. You can take that to the bank. He's going to take a QB. The question is which one.
Dude you obviously have NO IDEA what you're looking at when you look at QBs, so you need to just stop with the nonsense. Mayfield a product of hype. ROFLMAO!!! Darnold is a product of hype. He's almost as likely to bust as Allen. He has 1 1/2 seasons of starting experience. You want to talk about odds being against Mayfield. Almost no QBs with that little starting experience in college have made it in the NFL, maybe none. I think the 2017 Darnold is the real deal, not the 2016 version. Mayfield won the high 1st round consideration he's getting by his phenomenal production, accuracy, strong arm, leadership, intangibles, winning the Heismann and the Davey O'Brien awards. No one who has half a brain and knows anything about football would claim that Mayfield is gonna be a bust. No one.
I saw no reports of his getting a reduced role, but if Bowles is reducing Powell's role, it just shows how clueless and incompetent he is. He was the moron that kept trotting Forté out there last year when it was obvious he had no tread left on his tires. Rawls ain't beating Powell out. Crowell is a starting type RB. Powell isn't a starter, but he's a darned good change of pace back. The Jets can pound opponents with Crowell (and he's quite capable of breaking off some long runs), and then bring in Powell with his quickness and speed, and McGuire too.
The numbers look worse if you actually take a look at some QB's who did very well after they busted out of the teams that drafted them. That said the numbers of high quality QB's that come out of the first round dwarf the amount that come out later. There are several QB's who were drafted onto crappy teams, washed out only to be very good to great later in their careers. How long are you willing to wait? Do you have enough in place to develop a QB, all plays into the equation. Still the likelihood that you might actually get a high quality QB drops dramatically after the first few picks. There are 10 to 15 really high quality QB in the NFL. There's a reason Sam Bradford who is a 500 QB has made north of 125 million from 3 different teams.
Have you considered applying for the Patriots GM job? I promise everyone on this forum will recommend you for it.
You said all kinds of positives about Hack, and now Mayfield. When he flops, and he will, don't ever speak of QB's ever again. He is a product of the system. Nothing more. He elusiveness will not be elusive in the pro's, and his arm will prove to be average at best. His accuracy will depend on what playmakers can do for him. Those big windows in college, will be small in the NFL. Rosen is a much better pro prospect, period. His draw back is durability. You loved Nacho, Hack, and now Mayfield. Classic. Haha
