I wouldn't be suprised to see kennedy end up being the 3rd player, everything I hear suggests the twins prefer ellsbury to hughes, and if the red sox offer him up the yankees have to counter. a beckett, santana schilling, dice-k bucholtz/wakefield rotation is disgusting. not to mention running out the top 3 in a playoff series, then being able to use either bucholtz or dice-k in relief
If Boston offers Ellsbury the Yankees will smile and bow out. There is as much chance of them getting Kennedy and Hughes in any deal as there is in the Yankees throwing in Arod as the third player and paying his full salary for the next 10 years.
That is not a bad thing. The only good deals Cashman has made in recent memory are the deals he failed to make at all. There is no doubt he would prefer to let Santana go to Boston for scrubs then include Hughes in this deal. Just who would be the big winner in that?
I agree with Moss. Cashman's diminished role must have Boston in stitches at this point. All the work he did over the past few years to get this club younger again is being ruined by a change at the top. People who are dogging the "love" for Melky are discounting something intangible. I'm sick and tired of the statisticians jumping into every conversation to state how much a player is or is not valuable to a club. Stats are great, but team efforts win titles. When looking at the stats for the three guys being spoken of, none is going to win or lose a series with his bat. None can have the same argument made for them as an ARod, who can be responsible for a series-changing at-bat (for better or for worse). Now I know this is somewhat contrary to things I've said over the past couple months, but here is where I would defend my arguments. ARod's supposed locker room "cancer" personality is balanced with a young "core", including guys like Melky, Cano, Hughes, and Chamberlain. When you have the advantage of youthful enthusiasm, you have a different sort of motivation overall on a club. Not to mention, if ARod gets hot in October, he could bring a stripper out to coach third base, and no one would give a damn. If you remove Melky and Hughes, and substitute just Santana, who is significantly older than both of them, and whose numbers took a downturn this past year, you have a vastly different club. Now let's look at the lineup differences. Right now: Damon LF/DH Jeter SS Abreu RF ARod 3B Posada C Matsui LF/DH Cano 2B Phillips 1B Cabrera CF Not too bad a lineup. You have Melky's decent hitting production at the bottom of the order, and a well-balanced lineup. Power in the middle, baserunners at the bookends. Plus, you have a very good defensive unit in the outfield. Melky's range, and arm in center, and Damon throws to Jeter or ARod for the cutoff. Now let's look at the rotation, as it stands now: Wang 17+ wins Hughes 15+ wins Chamberlain 15+ wins Kennedy 12+ wins Moose 12+ wins Yes, this is presumptive, and has no basis in any prior performance, since there really isn't much, but I don't think these numbers are too far off from reality. Right there, we're talking about at least 71 wins out of the starting rotation. (And you really have to believe that these numbers are low for what actual performance will be, but I try to err on the side of caution.) Now let's look at the lineup if we trade Melky: Damon CF Jeter SS Abreu RF ARod 3B Giambi DH Posada C Matsui LF Cano 2B Phillips 1B Now the "heart" of the lineup has gone from 4 (Abreu, ARod, Posada, Matsui) to 5 (Abreu, ARod, Giambi, Posada, Matsui), putting more "power" and less baserunning into the equation. This is the same problem that's been bouncing us in early playoff rounds for years. When one goes cold, the dominoes fall. Plus, if you don't see the significant defensive dropoff with Damon in center rather than Melky, and Matsui instead of Damon in left, you're just not paying attention. Now let's look at the rotation, post-trade: Santana 19+ wins Wang 17+ wins Chamberlain 15+ wins Moose 12+ wins ??? 0 wins (who the hell pitches here if we assume Kennedy and Hughes are in Minny? Clippard? DeSalvo? Wright? Ugh...) Now we're looking at 63 wins from the rotation we can "count" on. Granted, we only need 8 to equal the total above, but that's just this year. What happens three years from now, when Moose is gone, Santana is past his prime, and we have zero youth in the rotation beyond Joba? By getting Santana, we also remove ourselves from the Haren or Bedard sweepstakes as well. Basically, Boston can offer up little to nothing, and we can't do a thing about it. How do you solve all of these problems immediately? You have to view this trade as a "win now" move, so you don't have 2 or 3 years to figure out how to get past the decline in overall composition. Bring in Jones to play center? Yeah, that's a great move. Bring Cabrera in for first? Who do you trade to make that happen now? Besides, who says it would work anyway? If the trade costs us Hughes, Kennedy, and Cabrera, the smart thing to do is walk away and see what Bedard and Haren will cost. Let Boston have him.
Boston is now offering Ellsbury but has withdrawn Lester. Seems useless. The Yankees have given the Twins until Tuesday to shit or get off the pot. Glad to see that. I'de rather they try to get Bedard at this point anyway. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3138088
I don't know how Boston fans feel at this point, but now I am firmly of the belief that both the Yankees and the Sox should tell the Twins to kiss our collective asses. How much can one man possibly cost? And what if he sucks? These packages on the table now are disgusting in terms of total value for one player. Not to mention, a player that can only have an influence on the game's outcome once every 5 days. I hope the Yanks and Sox both pull out of the process and tell Minny to piss off. Then we can both play the bidding game with each other next November. F the Twins.
For the original package of Lester, Lowrie, Crisp, and Masterson/Bowden I'd jump at the deal. For anything including Ellsbury, I'll be furious if they do it.
Yankees deadline for the twins is tomorrow. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/12/02/santana.talks/?cnn=yes
I heard an interview with Buster Olney this afternoon and take it for what it's but he says his gut tells him the Yankees will pony up Kennedy and trade Hughes, Melky and Kennedy to the Twins for Santana. Even though the Twins love Ellsbury Olney says the really need some pitching. Now with this I think he's talking out of his ass because they are gonna move Nathan as well and likely get pitching in return there. Olney also says that if this gets done in 7 the Yankees would be paying 2 guys (Arod and Santana) over 50 million. I hope for you guys that the Yankees do get Santana because seeing him go to Boston just sickens me. Obviously I'm a Met fan but 1st and formost I have NY pride so fuck Boston and go get this deal done.
The Red Sox would have Santana, Beckett, Schilling, Dice K and Bucholtz as a starting 5, with wakefield and tavarez as possible spot starters, you don't move arguably the best closer in baseball to be your #5 at best. Nathan would be a setup guy and get 10-12 save chances, letting the Sox keep Papelbon and Okajima fresh. They'd have an amazing pen come playoff time. Bucholtz, wakefield and tavarez as long a situational guys, with Okajima, Nathan, papelbon in the 7 8 9 range. edit.. that was based on the hypothetical, I can't see that trade really happening, far more likely is neshek coming to the sox, and Nathan getting moved elsewhere to close for good prospects. Cleveland, Detroit, and philly come to mind as options
The real question then becomes what type of offer do the Red Sox make if the Yankees pull out? A friend of mine in Seattle told me that the Mariners would offer Adam Jones who is thier #1 prospect along with some pitching but I don't know how good their pitching is and what they would offer. I just can't see the Mariners making a legit offer for Santana. I have a few friends in Nashville this week and one of them told me that Miguel Cabrera will be moved either to Los Angeles or Anaheim. If I have to bet it'd be Anaheim considering the Marlins aren't asking for Brandon Wood who will then fill the void left by Cabrera (Orlando). I guess it's gonna be Willits, Kendrick and Saunders or something along those lines. I'm somewhat disapointed as I was supposed to be there for work but sometimes plans change. Oh well next year in Vegas and I'll definately be there.
No way the Yankees will give Kennedy and Hughes to anybody for anything and they already know that. In fact they may pull back Hughes and substitute Kennedy again. Good for Hank. http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10508768 "I'm not going to be played against the Red Sox. That's not something I'll do. That's not something the Yankees should ever do, and that's I think what they're trying to do now," Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said Sunday. "So if they want the best offer that has been offered to them, then they need to make up their minds." "We'll see how it goes, but this is not an act. It's not a bluff. It's just reality," he said. "Because as much as I want Santana, and you can make that clear - for his sake, to know that I do want him - but the fact is that I'm not going to play the game. We've made them the best offer. And at this point, it's not going to get any better. So they can decide. At this point, it's up to them. I don't think they want to lose us in this thing, obviously. Nobody wants to lose the Yankees in a negotiation."
This should come as no surprise. I said a week ago he would never waive it two months before free agency. He would be a fool to do that.
I take nothing hank steinbrenner says seriously, he also said the yankees would not resign AROD under any circumstances if he opted out. Then he rolled over and dished out over 300 million. The deadline is an attempt to call the bluff of the twins. The yankees would be stupid to pull the deal off the table and go after Haren or Bedard. The main advantage of those guys is their low salary, not a real concern for the yankees. Also Cabrerra isn't a great fit in Oakland, so it would have to be 2 of Hughes, kennedy, Tabata, Jackson etc. To get a 1/2 while their rivals now have a free shot at Santana probably for the crisp/lester/lowrie/ bowden package.
He never said that. Stop making things up to suit your needs. He said he would never negotiate with Boras if Arod opted out. Pretty much for the exact same reason. So that it wouldn't be used to raise the price somewhere else. This is the exact same thing happening now and he will pull the offer today if it isn't accepted. I would prefer Bedard. There are no questions about him as there are with Santana and he is cheaper. Haren isn't worth anywhere near what Santana or Bedard is worth so I wouldn't expect a package like that to ever be offered for him.
