I realize what you guys are saying and intending -- I just don't think we can hone in on any one aspect like that. Only general trends are meaningful there. And I'd probably disagree with the OP, but I do take away from it the following "Tebow's effectiveness is not cosmic luck. There are some tendencies in his game that trend with winning." One clear example -- the guy seems to have no appetite for the short ball. He stands back there looking for a home run. And he seems to have the evasiveness to get away with it. And an extreme aversion to risking interceptions. And a big body to just take off and get 4 to 6 yards. It's a very odd combination of things that happens to be kind of difficult to beat. He only needs to become average as a pocket passer (maybe even 40th percentile) and he seems like a tough combination to win against. If he had a weak arm, it would be different. But if he can get some footwork down, his vision and accuracy will follow. They're kind of all linked.
The packages that they put him in will definitely allow those opportunitys to still be there and for him to take advantage of them. The Jets offense will not stifle Tebow, I doubt there will be handcuffs. They brought him here BECAUSE of his abilities AND instincts. They will tame him a little, give him scenarios and situations where he has to control his instincts and those where its up to him. This is going to be and exciting offense. People, not al,l but the ones who are mindless and believe Tebow is on an unstoppable quest to the promised land with no help from anyone else are delusional though and quite annoying. Mark Sanchez is the QB of this team, Tebow is a novelty. Novelties are exciting, alluring and also unproven. We will see how it works out.
What you don't seem to understand princess is this.... I'm not responding to your BS in the first post. The fact that jake locker is at top of the list says enough to me. I'm replying to your stupid theory that Tebow's low completion percentage is due to his receivers dropping the ball. I provided 4 different teams with similar situations (having at least 2 receivers in the bottom 20 for drop %). I'm not going to post all 32 teams receivers drop percentages as 4 should be enough to disprove your retarded theory.
Stats dot tracks incompletions and tries to differentiate them; poor throws, dropped passes, other(think spikes/throwaways), etc. Here's a sampling of the 2011 year, taking into account that the percentages are a function of total attempts. Experienced QBs | Poor Throw % | Drop % Brees | 9.3 | 4 Rivers|12.1 | 4.1 Romo|13.2|4.4 E. Manning|13.8|5.1 Rodgers|14.1|5.8 Roethlisberger|14.8|5.3 Brady|17.5|3.6 Cutler|18.2|6.7 Young QBs|Poor Throw %|Drop% Freeman|13.4|5.3 Stafford|14.8|5.6 Dalton|15.5|5 Ponder|17.9|4.1 Sanchez|17.9|5 Newton|19.5|5 Bradford|19.6|5.6 Gabbert|22.8|5.8 Tebow|26.2|7.7 Take from it what you will, if anything at all. I just wanted to make the pretty tables.
So Drew Brees had a really really good year if we didn't already know because I think he led the league in pass attempts and he has the lowest poor pass %. Wow. Interesting how the drops go up with poor pass. Maybe there is correlation there, maybe not.
Where did you get those stats? What I found most interesting about that table was that Brady has a "bad throw" rate almost exactly the same as Sanchez. I find it hard to believe. Also, Tebow doesn't throw bad passes, he is just throwing the ball away when he throws bad passes.
The fact that you even have an issue with Jake Locker being at the top of the list, pretty much tells me you didn't even read it. I left him there because he's the only quarterback that rated perfect: 4 Passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown 0 interceptions, 0 fumbles and because he's likely to start again this year. And made it pretty clear in my OP he's an outlier because of his passing attempts. I could have taken it upon myself to place a limit on the number of attempts, and keep him and a number of different guys out of it, but why? The more data the better. It's not like I presented efficiency percentages without attempts. His attempts are plainly visible for you to see and take notice of that. That is the reason I left them in there. Also, I'm not sure if I find it insulting or humurous that you call actual objective work and data "BS" considering your argument. This a chart that shows the turnover % and touchdown % of all of those active quarterbacks in the NFL. There is nothing shady about it. I realize it doesn't sit well with some to see Tebow at the top of the list considering the perception about him, a perception you seem to have bought into yourself, but those are the facts. These are their career and 2011 turnover and scoring percentages. These are two of the major categories that make up the NFL QB passer rating. They just don't include rushing stats and also place weights on yards and interception as well as minimums and maximums. That's just the numbers anyone can get from NFL.com. All I did is put them together on a presentable chart and included the things everyone else leaves out. The theory is what you try to come up with to explain why he shouldn't be there. Anyone can make an argument like yours for any of the quarterbacks on that list as to why they rank good or bad. But in the end, these are the results. And yeah your examples are poor, because they are incomplete and didn't take the time to think it through. I actually do have the data for all the drops for the receiving squads for all 32 teams not just 2 players. Because unlike you, I do actually try to do an objective, complete analysis. So I'm already way ahead of where you are in terms of your examples. It's also not a theory, it's based very much on facts and hard data. And if you want to know hard facts, then Denver ranks 30th in the league with 6.53% of their passes being drops, and Chicago's 28th with 5.92%, while in the Jet's case they are 14th with 4.94%. Now when you factor in low passing attempts, and a bit of common sense, it's not hard to figure out who's completion % is going to be affected the most. And when you factor in throwaways, then we're not even close. Tebow's by far the quarterback with the most inaccurate completion % stat. And that's the issue with Tebow. It's not Tebow that's inaccurate. It's the way we measure him. Unfortunately there's nowhere to get throwaways and drops by week and considering some quarterbacks switch teams, or didn't play a full 16 games, the only way I can apply those percentages to their stats is by using estimates. There's room for error in that case, and therefore I'd rather not present anything that requires estimates. However, I will add, that VanderbiltJets posted some data that pretty much goes hand in hand with what I am talking about: Notice the difference between Tebow's completion % between inside and outside the numbers. He has no issue completing at 65% in traffic, long or short. What those numbers show is an indication of him throwing the ball away...so add that together with the 30th ranked team in drops , and his low attempts per game, and then use a bit of common sense. Tebow will complete passes at a high completion % just like any other quarterback and just like he was very much able to do in college, in an offense built to take advantage of his strengths, much like Carolina did with Cam Newton, and once he becomes more accustomed to reading NFL defenses. Of that you can be certain. But if he would have gone in with that offense, and those receivers last year with the attitude of trying to complete passes, rather than try to score touchdowns and limit turnovers, they probably would have never made the playoffs. But he would have had a nice completion %.
Tim Tebow is extremely inaccurate. You arguing otherwise is a joke. "It's the way we measure him". You sound like the parent of a stupid kid who just doesn't get it. WATCH THE GAMES. And please explain away the chart below showing Tebow having the highest "bad throw" percentage. Let me guess, it's the way we measure him. Young QBs|Poor Throw %|Drop% Freeman|13.4|5.3 Stafford|14.8|5.6 Dalton|15.5|5 Ponder|17.9|4.1 Sanchez|17.9|5 Newton|19.5|5 Bradford|19.6|5.6 Gabbert|22.8|5.8 Tebow|26.2|7.7 Funny how the guy with the highest poor throw percentage has the highest drop percentage. I wonder if that has anything to do with his shitty wobbling ducks.
I have watched the games. Every one of them. You go back and watch them. And I'm sorry but I have never seen a "poor throw" stat sheet, and they are certainly not official. Unless John Fox and all the other coaches passed down their grade sheets, play book and receiver routes, I have no idea how you even begin rating a quarterback's throw without knowing the plays. You can pick out drops, touchdowns, and interceptions, and possibly throw-aways, but beyond that, I think I'll just stick with incompletions and official NFL numbers. Those seem to fall along the lines of TQBR, where ESPN analysts start taking it upon themselves to place weights on what they consider to be correct/incorrect plays like "clutch plays". In fact, maybe whoever posted it can explain it because all I see are results, with no explanation of the definitions or the criteria they used to determine what a "poor throw" is.
Those stats were provided by stats.com, or STATS LLC who provide statistics to most major sports leagues including the NFL. I'm going to trust my eyes and STATS LLC over your ridiculous arguments. You have zero credibility in my eyes after trying to argue that Tim Tebow is not an inaccurate passer.
Well I'm going to trust NFL.com and the NFL over your eyes and STATS LLC, and I think everyone else will too. My numbers are from NFL.com. Quarterbacks get paid on these and they are defined in the NFL rule book. A touchdown, interception, fumble or incompletion is an actual DEFINED statistic. They are tracked by the NFL based on the RULES of football. Everything I posted comes from here: http://www.nfl.com/ Please point me to the official NFL "poor throw" definition. I'd love to know how they determine a "poor throw", "underthrow" "overthrow" without actually knowing the plays. That would be fascinating for me to see.
Looks like the perfect storm for Tebow's completion percentage , bad throws AND a ton of drops . So as usual when it comes to Tebow , everybody is right . He sucks, he is great, he can't throw , they can't catch, it never ends with Tebow
Not really but I did post a video of him running ( limping) in a 20 yard TD in high school on a broken leg ( bone snapped clean) and him staying in the rest of that game that was pretty cool.
Wouldn't you agree that it's easier to catch a ball when it's a tight spiral hitting you in the hands in stride than when it's not a precise spiral? The Broncos receivers will drop much fewer balls this year because they will be precise spirals hitting them in stride for the most part and they'll be a lot easier to catch than a wobbly duck they have to stop or otherwise adjust for.
Except that's a generalized perceptions that ALL of Tebow's throws were bad spirals. Which is not true, if you actually go back and watch. The perception is created because TV stations like ESPN, pick out those 2 or 3 plays and play them over and over and over and over...which just keeps the whole cherade going. Why not show the other perfectly thrown passes over and over and over? Tebow threw a lot of great spirals and perfect passes. The majority of his passes were great passes and tight spirals. But everyone talks about it as if it's the other way around.
No one ever said they all were. Did the receivers drop all the passes? The problem is that this is the NFL and NFL QB's rarely pass the ball as poorly as Tebow does on a regular basis.
