Super bowl LIII Thread

This is a tough call. On one hand, the Patriots have been playing lights out as of late, but on the other, LA has a top defense, and is the better balanced team. The Patriots haven't played anybody with a defense that good in the post season. To beat Brady you have to keep him running for his life and get hits on him. The Rams are the team to do it.

With Donald and Fowler, they have to keep pressure on Brady. I feel that Goff can more easily score on the Patriots defense than Tom Brady can on the Rams defense. This leads me to think the Rams will take it, since they are the overall better team. I was leaning to betting Brady at first, but I think this will be more like the more recent Giants vs Patriots Superbowl, than anything else. That moneyline might just be worth it.

 

NE has been dominant in the playoffs against two 12 win teams and the feeling is the Saints got screwed & the Rams shouldn't be playing that's why.

Both the Chargers & Chiefs played not to lose and/or made dumb mistakes against them.

The Rams won 13 games yet are being completely overlooked going into this game I kinda understand why but it's still very surprising to me.

 

Yeah, I think you explained why they are being overlooked pretty well. Many people are forgetting how impressive they actually were in that Saints game. The place was so loud that they could barely even hear the play calls and were instantly down 13-0. That comeback showed a lot of perseverance. They can use that on the biggest stage of them all at Super Bowl LIII. The Rams just need to get pressure on Brady. If they do: they will win.

 

Great point about Kupp. Goff looked like a very confident QB throwing to Kupp and he changes the dynamics of the Rams passing game. Not only was he a terrific option, Goff just hasn't looked quite as confident throwing the ball since he went down. I still think the Rams have the beef on the OL to run inside traps and get the screen game going outside to really hurt the Pats D. I don't see the Rams going 3 and out or having 2 minute scoring drives. They will have TOP something neither the Chargers or the Chiefs had against NE. I still think it comes down to LA getting some discipline out of a very talented defensive group that has shown no ability to contain and not get caught over pursuing. Two weeks and the trophy might get them focused. I really would be surprised if it's a blowout by the Pats. I can see the Rams having a lot of long drives and keeping the Pats D on the field chasing and their D off the field.

The last couple have been real close. Brady had a couple of great moments in the Chiefs game but he wasn't great and was carried by the inside running. Stop the run and push up the middle and the Pats can look ordinary.

 

Excellent points. Could either team dominate the other to a greater than 14 point win? Of course. However, even at their best, all of Super Bowls with the Brady have been close and I think this one will be as well.

It's not like the Rams are a Cinderella team. If they can run Gurley / Anderson combo successfully and Wade Phillips can get the defense to play as well as the talent would suggest, then I imagine the Rams will make a game of it.

 

So what is everyone cooking up for the Super Bowl! Recipes let me hear it! I was thinking of buying the worst cheap onion dip ever with mild cheddar cheese chunks that are getting hard and nasty around the edges and past the expiration date! Maybe I'll throw in some Ritz crackers! In other words not watching!

Signed,
-Mrs. championjets69

 

2001/02 No one thought the P*ts had a chance over the Rams..... hopefully this year is the reverse result

 

One thing that is getting over looked is Wade Phillips vs Brady over their careers. Brady is 6-3 vs Phillips with 21 TD : 7 INT. Brady has had success vs Philips over his career but last time they matched up in the AFCCG when Phillips was with Denver He held Brady in check. He held Brady to sub 50% completion and he threw 2 picks. Straight up - this game comes down to if Suh, Donald, Fowler and Brockers can get any pressure up the middle. If they can, I think the Rams win with ease. If they can't? Forget about it.

 

The difference is this Rams team is much better than that Patriots team was and this Patriots team is not as good as that Rams team was. But that is why they play the game!

Yep. 100% agreed.

 

Officiating played a huge part in that game. The refs allowed the Pats DB's to push and hold the Rams WR for an extended time. The refs will play a role in this game depending on how much inside holding they allow on Darnold and Suh and how closely they are going to call picks on the O.

 

Sam Darnold is playing in the Super Bowl?

 

yep. Ty Law got away with murder that one.... funny how I wasnt as upset then.... granted $ on the +14 point spread may have had something to do with it

 

Have they cheated yet?

 

Thought you might be interested in this NY Times article today about Kupp. Got to give you props, pretty spot on post.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/sports/cooper-kupp-rams-super-bowl-liii.html

The numbers are fairly stark. Goff had completed 68.4 percent of his passes through Week 10 and had a passer rating of 113. In the six regular-season games Goff played after Kupp’s injury, those numbers were reduced to 59.8 percent and 83.9.

Cooks and Woods remained viable threats, but the shuffling of roles created some disarray, and Josh Reynolds, who stepped in as the third receiver, could not match Kupp’s reliability. There was a sense that without Kupp, the Rams went from invincible to merely great.

Coach Sean McVay put things fairly bluntly to reporters shortly after Kupp’s injury. “Anytime you lose a player of Cooper’s caliber and what he’s meant to our offense, you don’t replace guys like that,” McVay said.

 

I hope so. But after reading this it looks like the cheaters will win again this time with the running game. I hope the Rams can stop them.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...england-patriots-strategy-nfl-super-bowl-liii

One of the most staggering things about the New England Patriots’ two decades of domination in the NFL is that, Tom Brady aside, their success isn’t built on a raft of superstars. That’s not say they haven’t had fine players: Randy Moss and the late Junior Seau are already in the NFL Hall of Fame and Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Adam Vinatieri will probably join them. But more than anything, the Pats’ five titles since 2001 have been about the team as a whole. And that’s down to the single most important person in the NFL: Bill Belichick.

The head coach’s ability to zig while others zag has kept New England ahead of every team in the league for 18 years, and led to a mindboggling period of sustained success that should be impossible in a league that is designed for parity through a salary cap and draft system. Belichick’s genius lies in his refusal to wed himself to one overriding philosophy. He’s a shape-shifter, constantly evolving his team’s style – and that flexibility has been on show this season. As modern schemes have expanded the field and the focus has been on the dominance of quarterbacks and smaller, more mobile defensive players, Belichick has returned to an old-school, power running system

According to a recent study, New England are the third-heaviest team in the league. And that’s by design. Belichick, an economics major, is constantly looking to find market inefficiencies to exploit. He has had great success with quirky schematic innovations, but, for the most part, he takes tried and tested methods and adopts them.

The brilliance is in the timing. Belichick reintroduced the 3-4 defense to the league back in the early 2000s. When it got too popular (thanks to the Patriots’ success), he switched back to a 4-3, where he could unearth some cheap gems. He was also an early adopter (around 2011) of the up-tempo spread offense that’s become ubiquitous in 2018. And he helped change the meaning of what a two tight-end team looked like, using Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in ways we had never before seen: plodding tight ends were out, pass-catching polar bears were in. Naturally, Belichick now pretty much ignores that tactic. The Patriots have played a total of 12 downs with a running back and two tight ends on the field, far and away the lowest total in the league. What used to be the team’s base strategy is now an afterthought.

Belichick saw a new way to take advantage of opposing teams and morphed. As defenses across the league have evolved to counteract spread offenses, they’re left vulnerable to run-heavy teams. So Belichick’s Patriots have poured resources into developing a sturdy offensive line to power that run game, including the huge left tackle Trent Brown, who stands at 6ft 8in and weighs a hefty 380lbs. They’ve also concentrated on developing the deepest, most flexible running-back room in the league. Sony Michel was the Patriots’ first-round pick in 2018 – a cardinal sin among the more analytically minded who consider running backs less important in an era dominated by the passing game. The other New England running backs are made to feel like they matter too: James White and Rex Burkhead both make north of $3m while fullback James Devlin is the fourth-highest earner at his position in the league. All of them play a bunch of snaps, and they’re routinely deployed together in any number of pairings – the Patriots have used two backs on 36% of downs this season, trailing only the San Francisco 49ers.




Mike Reiss

✔@MikeReiss


A feel for Trent Brown’s size as he arrives for interview. Biggest takeaway from the interview: He says he has comfort level on left side as well. Calls himself an excellent pass protector who gets after it in the run game.


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12:23 AM - May 4, 2018

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Belichick still uses his crown jewel of course: the same quick passing game we’re used to from Tom Brady is still humming along, and it was needed in the fourth quarter and overtime of the AFC Championship game with the team’s season on the line. But the Patriots’ late-season revitalization has been fueled by the offensive line and running game as much as anything else. Prior to their Week 11-bye, the Patriots averaged 108.5 rushing yards per game, eclipsing the 100-yard mark only five times in 10 weeks. Belichick doubled down after the mid-season break, committing to a strategy that would work during the bad weather of December and January. In the last eight games, the Patriots have churned out an average of 160.3 yards per game, rushing for over 100 yards in all but two games.

Sunday’s Super Bowl is the culmination of Belichick’s grand plan. No team symbolizes where the sport is going as much as the Patriots’ opponents, Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams: young, fun, and innovative on offense; explosive and light on defense. The Rams are the lightest team in the NFL. And it shows on defense, particularly against the run. LA are the 28th-ranked defense in the league in rush defense DVOA, despite having the best two-man tandem in football playing along their defensive line.

Belichick’s bet that a ball-control ground game was the Patriots’ best path to clinching their sixth championship has already paid dividends. While Brady and the Rams’ high-flying offense will dominate discourse this week, how LA’s defense stands up to the Patriots’ ground game will prove decisive on Sunday.

 

Thanks Biggs. Kupp was such a multi purpose weapon, he was a good run blocker as well as they ran a lot of 3 WR sets. Excellent route runner too. McVay would find ways to put him on a linebacker (see Vikings game). If he were in the game, I would've picked the Rams. Goff hasn't looked nearly the same.

Good luck with that one McVay.

 

Hopefully the Refs let them play as well. Talib and Peters need to get a read on what the refs allow them to do in regards to how physical they can be with the Pats WRs. I would test it early and be all over them.

 

Great article, I just take issue with this one sentence. Analytics is about maximizing your competitive advantage, not staying away from running backs because all the cool teams are doing it. If you discover that running backs are now undervalued, you invest in them.