Ew. Gore is overrated. He didn't score that much last year, he fumbles too often, and he's a much bigger risk to get hurt or break down than LJ is.
that's not even close to being true. Johnson is a HUGE risk to break down this season simply because of the way Herm ran him into the ground last season. Look at the history. Plus, Gore was better than Johnson last season anyway.
That 370 number is very convenient for them. Terrell Davis had a 369 carry season. Oh, my! If he had one more he would have broken down! Not running one more time allowed him to run 392 times for 2008 yards the following season! Similarly, Curtis Martin was not ruined after 368, 369, and 367 carry seasons. Then he had a 371 carry season and got hurt the next year! Those Football Outsiders guys are hot stuff sometimes.
every guy but one (dickerson) who passed that number broke down. say what you want, but it's all there. I'm willing to bet Johnson either gets injured or is ineffective this season.
I think he'll be less effective than he was in 2006 and far less effective than he was in 2005 due to the fact his offensive teammates are not as good as they have been. Say what you want, but I'm not buying the 370 thing. Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown, LaMont Jordan, Kevin Jones, Brian Westbrook, and Carnell Williams all missed some time last year. None had more than 370 carries in 2005. Running backs get injured often. Jamal Anderson got injured in Dallas in 1999 because he twisted his knee. He didn't get injured because he had too many carries the previous season. Kenny Irons is out for the season. He didn't have an obscenely huge workload at Auburn last year. By the way, it is vehemently incorrect to say Dickerson was the only guy to pass the 370 threshold and not break down. James Wilder had 407 carries in 1984. He played 16 games in 1985 and had 365 carries. His average only dropped from 3.8 to 3.6. He played at the same level. Gerald Riggs had 397 carries in 1985. He had 343 carries in 1986. There was not a significant drop-off in his performance and he played in all 16 games. Walter Payton had a 369 carry season in 1979. He led the NFC in rushing the following year. I guess that does not count for it was only 369 carries and not the magical 370! Payton ran 381 times in 1984. The next season he had 324 carries and started every game. His average in 1984 was 4.4. It was 4.8 in 1985. Also, he had 339 carries in 1977. Adjust that for a 16-game schedule and he would have had 387 carries. He started 16 games in 1978 and led the NFC in rushing. George Rogers was an All-Pro in 1982. The prior season he ran the ball 378 times. Of course, he was an All-Pro in 1982 after only playing in 6 games. He did miss 3 games. John Riggins did not have a big drop-off from 1983 to 1984. Let's look at Emmitt Smith now. 365 carries in 1991. Maybe it doesn't count because it is only 365. The next year he carried the ball 373 times and led the league in rushing. The following year he missed two games due to a holdout and still led the league in rushing. He had 368 carries in 1994. In 1995 he had 377 carries and led the league in rushing. In 1996 he missed one game and did suffer a drop-off in play, as did the entire team. Earl Campbell had 368 carries in 1979. The next year he led the league in rushing attempts (373), rushing yards (1934), and rushing average(5.2). He was second in touchdowns (13). The next year he saw his average plummet to 3.8. However, he still started 16 games, had 361 carries and led the AFC in rushing. Campbell did not start to break down till 1984. LaDainian Tomlinson had 372 carries in 2002. I'm still waiting for the breakdown. (He started 16 games in 2003, ran for 1645 yards and also led the league in receptions.) In 1977, Mark van Eeghen had 324 carries for 1273 yards and an average of 3.9 yards per rush. If you adjust that for a 16-game schedule he would have had 370 carries. In 1978, he started 16 games and ran the ball 270 times at a clip of 4.0 yards. Finally, Jim Brown and O.J. Simpson combined to have had three 370+ seasons (after adjustments). Brown had 290 carries in the 12-game 1959 season. The number adjusts to 387 carries. Simpson had 332 carries in the 14-game 1973 season and 329 carries in 1975. Neither suffered a breakdown after those seasons. Again, FO is hot stuff sometimes. They are cuckoo with this 370 thing.
they're not "hot", whatever that means. they have extensive research on this. you can look at all the articles yourself. I'm buying into it because I've seen what they have to back it up. besides, he wasn't great last season anyway. OL is not very good anymore. waters and nothing Huard at QB you'd be crazy to take him top 3, and that was my point
Are you still going to quibble with what I posted above? By the way, I already read the articles. I find the whole thing to be highly laughable.
That's something I essentially wrote above. I noted he was far more effective in 2005, he was very good in 2006, and he has less help here in 2007.
so you're going to attribute his downfall to his teammates. whatever. same difference. I'm just saying, I think he's not going to have a very good season, fantasy or otherwise. I wouldn't draft him in fantasy unless he slipped to me in the 2nd. Addai, Westbrook, Gore, Alexander, LdT, Jackson as RBs I have ahead of him, plus maybe Manning and others.
I didn't draft him in the one league in which I had the opportunity to draft him. I took Steven Jackson. As for your quote above, you are not doing right by me here. Again, he is not going to be phenomenal this year because the offensive line of Kansas City is no longer a real good one. He will not suffer a drop off based upon the fact he carried the ball 416 times in 2006. Note the difference.
so you're going to attribute his downfall to his teammates. whatever. same difference. I think almost everyone would've taken Jackson over Johnson. The question was more Johnson vs. Addai, Gore, etc. I rank them: 1)Jackson 2)LdT 3)Gore 4)Addai 5)Alexander 6)Westbrook but now Jackson lost his best offensive lineman.
Why the smug repetition? Don't insult my intelligence. It is not the same difference. Their study stated that RBs with a certain number of carries usually get injured or lose effectiveness the following season. They opine that these RBs fall off based upon heavy use from the previous season. They have not taken into account personnel changes that would affect the RBs. They have not taken into account coaching changes. There are many factors why some of these RBs had problems in subsequent years. As I have shown, there are also many RBs who were used heavy and still were effective in subsequent years.
it IS the same difference. I had to repeat it because there's nothing else to say. At the end of the year, if he has a poor year, you'll say it was because of his teammates or whatever, and I'll say it was due in part to last season. The vast majority of RBs who have carried 370+ times have struggled, gotten injured, or both the next season. Larry Johnson is not going to buck the trend. But even if he's awful, you'll say you were right anyway. So it's the same difference and I don't know why you're arguing the point.
It is not but, as you say- whatever. We will see at the end of the year. He may get injured. He may stay healthy. Under each of those scenarios he could have a bad year. You are mistaken. I see you have chosen to avoid post #25.
Why won't he buck the trend (that does not exist)? Because he had 370+ carries last season? What does that mean? Did Derrick Blaylock get hurt in 2006? He didn't have 370+ carries in 2005. I'll have to continue my point later. I was arguing that FO is off base here and then it turned into something else.
No one said a RB has to have 370 carries to get injured. Injuries can happen at anytime. That's just stupid. Larry Johnson will not buck the trend.
most of this is ludicrous. You can't say a guy played less games, and it projects to more carries over a 16 game season. They didn't play a 16 game season and thus didn't get as many carries. You can't use guys who got less than 370 carries either. There are VERY FEW exceptions. Earl Campbell is not one of them. Not every guy gets injured. But the ones that don't, their effectiveness suffers. Your post didn't prove or disprove a thing.
My post proved that this 370 carry thing is a bunch of bullshit. Wow, 369, 368, 367, 365 carry efforts get ignored! Are you fuckin' serious, man?
Okay, that's just two players anyway. You want to discard the Brown and Simpson examples? Fine, we'll throw them out. I betcha they got carries in preseason games. Players didn't sit as much back then as they do now (see Tomlinson with 0 carries this preseason, as just one example). Brown used to play 6 preseason games a year. I'm not researching it anyway, so okay.
