maybe not, but a lot of the guys who play it aren't real football fans. most of the dyed in the wool football guys I know cant stand it. it may not disappear but I can guarantee you these fly by night this is so much fun douchebag crowd that is so into it today wont stay into it forever. they will play it for a few years and once the shine comes off it they will move on to the next new thing. take those guys away in a few years and the daily I think im going to make some money guys away and it will be a very different fantasy landscape.
A Revis restructure is absolutely possible on his end, its the JETS who might not be so keen on doing it. Remember; a restructure is not taking money AWAY from a player, its usually about changing the distribution of their payment in such a way that their cap hit in the next year is less, but they are paid the same amount. So for instance, Revis has a 17 million dollar cap hit next year, all in base salary. Say we restructure 10 million of that. it becomes a signing bonus, so now its equally distributed throughout the rest of the contract. is it worth it? well that depends on just how much it hurts you're long term flexibility. according to over the cap we'd just have about 2.3 million in savings should we cut him in 2017 instead of 9.3 million. In addition his 2017 cap hit increase to about 17.8 million instead of 15 million. So if we're okay with him being a jet through 2017, sure why not? no skin off DR's back, gets paid either way. Its totally possible, maybe even advisable if we want to fit Wilk along with a few others.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2015/10/26/Media/ESPN.aspx a little very light reading on how espn fucked itself completely over paying for broadcast rights of mlb, nba and especially nfl football. don't expect anyone to give these fuckers 1.9 billion a year for Monday night football. I bet its much closer to 1 billion.
Rising CAP $'s helps no one but the players. You still have the same 32 teams chasing the same 20-30 superstars. The ONLY thing that helps a team year over year is smart drafting and a good coaching staff. CAP $ is completely irrelevant.
It's tough. He's steeply declining, but there's just not many options. Problem is he is due $14.1m next year, $14.3m in 2017 and his play isn't worth that.
Speaking of, Wilkerson can easily be retained, its just a matter of getting creative. You can try it yourself on OTC, one of their better features is their cap calculator, really makes it easy to gauge the jets cap situation, http://overthecap.com/calculator/new-york-jets Now lets assume we're attempting to franchise tag him. thats about 15 million, maybe a few more. We also need to retain a few free agents. Notably Fitzpatrick, Ivory and Damon Harrison, with others like Davis, Colon and Powell, under consideration. I'm going to overestimate a bit and say we need 15 million in free agent spending to retain our talent we also have to fit another 6-7 million for the draft, and have another 2 for in season signings. Thats a total of maybe 35 million in spending the we'll need for 2016…And we've got 15 million in space if the cap is 150 million. So we've got to get creative to open things up. Lucky us,we've got loads of flexibility. First cuts, Cromartie has underachieved and Williams has emerged, a tough cut there leaves us an additional 8 million. Cumberland is a ghost, thats another 1.9 million, so about 10 million saved so far.25 million under the cap. Another cut to consider is Giacomini, who would net us another 3.75 million in savings, but let say we keep him. Next is the complicated part, restructures, Lets go with my aforementioned Revis plan where I restructure 10 million into a signing bonus. that saves another 7.5 million. Mangold is restructured, his 2.4 mill roster bonus, and 4.6 million of his base is converted into a signing bonus. this saves about 3.5 million, adding as much to his 2017 cap hit. thats 36 million in savings. Ferguson… cant really restructure him like those two. He has about 9 million dollars of restructure-able cash… which would be converted into a signing bonus split between 2 years (4.5 to each years cap). Thats worth 4.5 million in savings in 2016, and a lot more guaranteed cash in 2017… its just kicking the can down the road. Best bet is to tear that contract up all together and start anew, perhaps redistributing the remaining 20 million dollars worth of cash he's due into a 4 year sunset deal with a decent sum guaranteed. Picture 3 years of fully guaranteed base salaries all under cap hits less than 7 million, thats my dream scenario. That or cut ties and try to replace him in free agency or the draft, saving 9 million entirely, but we're playing with fire by doing that. And oh yeah, we can restructure Marshall for another 4-5 million in savings if need be.( is 2017 cap hit would be just over 11 million, with 7.5 million saved if he's cut) Even WITHOUT a D'brick cut, thats worth 40 million in space, MORE than enough to do everything we need to. So, we've got a great deal of flexibility if we play things smartly. Fitting Muhammad into the jets cap situation is very doable, the question is if we can lock him up long term.
Good summary, but also why I gave Maccagnan a C+. After blowing through a boat load of cash, he failed to lock up a single one of our home grown talents. Macc could have split the cash between new FAs (Carpenter, Skrine, Gilchrist) and locking up Wilkerson AND Richardson. After that he could have used our #1 pick somewhere other than D-Line (trade for a QB maybe?) But now we're stuck doing both.....paying to keep our FAs AND figuring out how to lock up our own talent. Won't be easy, especially if a quality QB comes along.
Richardson technically couldn't be extended till this january (rookie contracts are set in stone until the end of their third regular season) but your point stands. I'm not sure just WHAT the hold up was with Wilk as its not exactly like he has to prove himself, and it'll only be harder and more expensive to retain him in the future. Were they THAT far apart in negotiations?
Richardson can't be locked up until after the 2016 season per the CBA. They had to spend a lot of money this season. Wilkerson has to be a case where he's looking for more money than the Jets think will work on future caps. They clearly had the cap space to pay him whatever he wanted this year but as the Fins found out paying a DL a huge amount doesn't guarantee anything.
Paying the DL a lot of money can work but it depends on the players and scheme. If you want to invest a lot of money/picks into the DL, you have to go with a 4-3 defense, with a disruptive 3-technique tackle, and 2 outside pass rushing DEs. That's when the D-Line can shine, and that's how that 2002 Tampa Bay team was built, and the two Giants Super Bowl winning defenses that abused every elite NFL QB on their way to the championship. That kind of D-Line will consistently generate enough pressure to cover up any deficiencies in the LB corp and the secondary, and will deserve large contracts. Makes no sense to invest that kind of money into large heavy 3-4 DEs that despite being very good at their job, aren't going to get in the QB's face nearly enough to impact the game on a regular basis. With Miami and Suh, it made some sense on paper, with Cameron Wake, but he went out for the season, and Suh is just an ass.
Let's see how the Richardson outside experiment goes. He's got the best motor I've seen on a Jet's defensive lineman since Joe Klecko. Maybe he can pull off the outside rush position and set the edge and let Mo stay at 3T with Williams at the other end. The Jets might already have their 4-3 if that works out.
After Richardson's issues I'm just finding it hard to trust him anymore. If I'm Mac I have to ask some difficult questions; do I REALLY trust him to stay out of trouble from here on? enough so that I can trust him to be our DT for the next two years while Williams takes over for Wilkerson? How replaceable is Wilkerson anyhow? and at what point DO I invest in the D-line? Because if its not Wilk, its Richardson a couple years from now at an even more expensive rate or else an impractical cycle of not investing in Great D-lineman after their rookie deals. Its easy to balk at Wilkerson's potential cost out of principle, but is it practical in practice? Wilkerson is a proven commodity on and off the field, THE best 3-4 guy not named Watt, and unlike Watt he's got free agency on his side boosting his cost. He's worth 15-17 million wether we like it or not, and we are better off with him than not, like it or not. I'm not gonna reject Wilk because Suh didn't work out or because we have Williams and Richardson. If anything Richardson is our most expendable asset because he's proven to have an immature streak…maybe we should see if Jerry is feeling risky and wants a top DT for their first while we get a blue chip OT and another pick, but thats a conversation for another day. Its a possibility that this is all a moot point for 2016 and we retain everybody anyway.
The point about Richardson being risky due to the maturity issues is well taken. However he's probably the only guy the Jets have right now who might be a dominant player on the edge. Williams looks like a strongside end in the Shaun Ellis mode, maybe a bit better than that. He might also figure out the first step and leverage and become a 14 sack guy, which would be even better. Mo is a 3T who could also play the nose. He's a very good 3-4 DE as well but unless he's J.J. Watt/Bruce Smith good at the position there's no way he's worth $15-17M a year. The way he plays right now he's worth a solid $12M. Paying him 30% more because he's a free agent right now is probably not in the Jets best interests given the other talent available.
He'd be paid 12 million some 2-3 years ago. The asking price is just gonna keep going up unfortunately. Frankly Houston was smart in that they locked up Watt before he even sniffed free agency, meanwhile we whiffed on the early bird special on Wilk. Watt would be worth several million more than the 16 million a year he got if he did have free agency on his side. Wilkerson is worth less than that hypothetical price, but more or about the same than Watt a couple years early without an outside market to fudge his price. Its the nature of the business, making a franchise player contract is a lot less expensive when you've got a couple years to control his rights. Signing a player on the edge of free agency is a whole different game. Though you're absolutely right, maybe not playing that game at all is right move if he's not willing to accept a preconceived appropriate price tag. …Of course it won't EVER get better when it comes to paying these guys. All I'm saying is it'd be nice to retain a surer bet on the field now before things get even HARDER for us. I mean if you think that price is high, wait till its Richardson's turn in a couple years with his added risks. The extra millions now might not look so bad in tomorrows market, in a lot of ways its about finding that kind of deal with you're top stars.
I just want to use the extra money to revamp the right side of our OL. A RG and RT that are NFL ready whether it be draft or FA should be at the top of our Offseason wishlists.
Even if Wilk wanted $2M/yr more than Macc wanted to pay, the $8M he handed Cro would have covered it nicely. And don't get me started on the $100M he gave Revis.
Revis got $70M. 16-17-15-11-11. He got $39M guaranteed in the first 3 years and nobody really thinks the last 2 years are real. He's going to be 33 and 34 in those years and probably back on the market unless the Jets win a Super Bowl in the interim, maybe even if they do.
