But I’m not. See, your second part of the equation — the building of the team around him, is pure speculation. I’m not talking about the potential to build around him (because the potential to fail to build around him is equally as possible so you’d have to also give that equal merit and consideration). I’m talking about the teams current state. Watson is more valuable to a team where he appears to be the sole missing piece to a championship team, like the 49ers, than a team who still needs to add pieces around him to get to that level, like the Jets or Dolphins. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t make them instantly better but it doesn’t mean he ascends them to SB contention. And if he makes a team a SB contender on his own all those picks they give up aren’t as relevant as they are to a team that still needs picks to add players to the team with Watson.
I agree. The last few days I've been against giving up both 1st round picks this year, and not over spending, but Tannenbaum is probably right. If Watson goes to the Dolphins, the Jets are screwed. They'll spend another decade not winning the division because they'll probably have 3-4 losses every season to the Bills and Dolphins. JD has got to find a way to make it happen or we have hope/pray that Watson will be traded to the Niners or another team in the NFC.
Glaser is quoting what Watson's cap charge is for Houston, NOT what it would be for the Jets. I think Cimini and the others who are saying there will be 20 teams bidding on Watson are idiots. There's no way with the cap being lower this year that can or will happen, plus many would have to trade their whole draft and several starters to beat the Jets' best offer.
Would you still think that way if Watson went to Miami? If he does, the Jets can most likely forget about winning the division for the next 10 years. Between playing Buffalo and Allen 2x a year and Miami and Watson, the Jets will probably have 3-4 losses a season in the division. Field or Wilson might develop into a QB near the level of Watson or Allen, but there are no guarantees. I'm not willing to forget about the Jets being a playoff team for the next 10 years. Either the Jets have to get him or we have to hope that Watson is traded to an NFC team.
If he presses too hard, however, he'll probably wind up paying way too much for Watson, when he can get him for less.
I totally disagree. He'd have to WAY overpay to do that. We can't afford to do that, and there's no reason to do that. In terms of draft capital, no team can offer more than we can. I'm not worried about competition, and I'm sure that Douglas isn't either. He's not the type to panic. (I'm not saying that you are panicking, just that if Douglas is afraid of competition and way overpays that he will be guilty of panicking.)
So you understand that Watson, on his own, would drastically improve the Jets after getting bottom of the league production from the QB position. But you’re unwilling to consider the $80M in cap space and the 5 top 100 draft picks the Jets can use to fill out their roster, not to mention the improved coaching. On the other hand, you say that the 6 win 49ers who are going to lose significant members of their team to free agency along with valuable members of their coaching staff, and have close to no draft capital after a Watson trade would become a Super Bowl contender. Not a great argument.
I’m simply referring to the salary; but considering the jump to $30 million in the following year I find the difference between $10 and $16 million for a QB of his caliber rather negligible and a tremendous value at $16 million regardless which is the crux of the point.
If you don’t see a team that went to the SB two years ago and suffered a significant amount of injuries this year as different than the Jets I’m not sure then you are judging the teams thoroughly.
This is why people like Mike Tannebaum failed In the NFL. They allow emotion to drive their decisions. Instead of being critical and using logic to build a winner. No way you overpay for Watson. No way you allow the possibility of Watson going to the Phins to dictate your course either. As soon as you do that, we will fail. I don't think Joey D will fall for that trap. Play your hand, don't overstep, stay in your lane, and become a winner despite it all. Big off-season ladies and gents.
I wonder if Joe Douglas is grinding out 18 hour days huddled up with his scouts and coaches watching thousands of hours of tape on every potential draft pick, or if JD says "Fuck it, all those picks are going to the Texans anyway, lets golf and throw back some cold ones!!!"
Depends on your definition of overpaying. That definition also changes team to team. “Overpaying” to the Panthers is probably something that makes perfect sense for us.
Garoppolo will not be part of the trade package. His cap hit is $26.4 million for 2021. The Texans don't have cap space for that. They're already almost $18 million over the $205 million cap, and the expected cap is what, around $177 million? The Niners aren't getting the deal done with just draft picks. They can't even do it with Bosa. Bosa's cap hit will be $19,826,073. Maybe they can do it with some younger, cheaper players. Fred Warner is their MLB and a rising star. His cap hit is only $3.384 million. Maybe include Deebo Samuel, whose cap hit is only $2,099,279.
If Watson goes to Miami we fail as well, regardless of how good Fields/Wilson/Lance winds up being for us at #2 and the rest of our draft picks. We're not winning the division for the next 10 years with both Watson and Allen in it.
this isn’t about how I judge teams. I think the 49ers would do really well with Watson. You’re not being consistent in your argument. You don’t want to consider the Jets ability to improve through free agency in a clear buyer’s market or the draft capital that would remain after the Watson trade. But you aren’t considering the 49ers stand to lose most of their secondary, their franchise player, Bosa, is coming back from a serious injury, Dee Ford might not even play again next year, and the guy that built their defense is gone. And they have to resign their all pro LT. And they have very little cap space and even less draft capital after trading for Watson.
They can't beat the Jets' offer on draft capital alone, and aside from Fred Warner and Deebo Samuel, I know of no other young players that are good enough that Houston would rather have them than the Jets' draft picks.
Kittle, Bosa, Aiyuk, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw, Arik Armstead and even Garoppolo. They are loaded with young talent. I think Garroppolo sucks but he's a decent bargaining chip considering Caserio drafted him.
Watson isn't better than Dan Marino and Marino wasn't that much of an obstacle to us over the years. We were our own obstacle !
