I don't think anyone is. I'm just talking about what a normal team would do. I fully expect them to do the opposite.
The Athletic had all their local writers chime in to put together trade packages for Watson. They had local writers brainstorm deals for the Broncos, Raiders, Bears, Niners, Panthers, Jets, and Dolphins. Here is the Jets offer, analysis, and the article's closing paragraph: https://theathletic.com/2359640/2021/02/02/deshaun-watson-trade-offers-texans/
This seems odd on a purely football level but what does this mean for Watson? Are either of those two guys relevant?
Plot twist: the person who he trusts that told him this is Mike Florio. No, but realistically I believe it. And I also believe the Texans just might have the balls to call this bluff but we'll see. It won't end well for anyone if he does sit out but I'd imagine they trade him before it gets that far. There's 5-6 months before this is a possibility.
Time is the #1 problem for the Jets acquiring Watson. I know some people on here disagree, but I think Douglas will have a time limit on executing his off-season plans and I am starting to think the Texans will not cooperate with that, leaving him no choice but to move on. I think the Jets treat Free Agency differently if they have Watson in the fold. So if they don't, they will go a different route then. Meaning Mid-March is the true cut off time for the Jets. With Lawrence being the #1 pick, the Jets know what route they are going with #2 already or certainly by Free Agency.
If they get the deal they want they’ll trade him but I don’t think they will feel the need to trade him for less simply to avoid any temporary negative repercussions. In the end the Texans will be around 100 more years; any potential negative impact of his sitting out will ultimately mean nothing to the long term viability of the franchise. Watson has a much shorter time frame to maximize his playing career so sitting out one year, and his contract tolling because of that, has a much more significant impact on his career nevertheless career earnings. He better be damn certain they will trade him if he sits out.
I'd be surprised if Miami is all that interested in Watson. They should be, but why hire one of Tua's former QB Coaches if they aren't committed to him. They may think he can be about as good as Watson, and that by using all their draft picks they could wind up being better than they would be if they traded for Watson. Their team is a good bit further along in their rebuild than we are and they have a better QB than we do.
story continues to fascinate me From a purely game theory/strategy perspective it makes a lot of sense for JD to at least feign interest. At a minimum it can cause disruption for rival Miami as they waste energy and perhaps harm Tua's confidence as they consider what they may do. Of course if Miami says we're out -- to bolster Tua's confidence, that would just lower the price for us by losing a serious competitor. One can say the same thing applies to us and Miami may be feigning interest to harm us, but Sam already knows he's on thin ice so ... Likewise, if a team provides a haul it would benefit Houston for sure (but they're not a division rival) and while Watson would improve the recipient, causing the recipient to spend more for Watson than what otherwise might be the case benefits us -- e.g., less competition for other FAs, etc. So we should never expect JD to declare publicly that he is out. Even if he told Houston here's our offer take it or leave it, or let us know in the week or we're moving on, you would still expect that to be kept private. Why would Jets announce this (see above); why would Houston (it would just lower offers from others). On a related note, and a question for the NFL contract gurus, is it possible for the Jets to renegotiate with Sam now to obtain a team option. In short, he's at a precipice with his career . Jets might add some money for the current year but in exchange for that money and for the opportunity to show his game, get a more reasonable deal than franchising or whatever. This way if he blossoms under new CS we reap some reward. He could say F-U and bet on himself but that would be a real tough call for him to make. If the Jets step up and give him another change, he should be stepping up in some manner too. If he says F-U to a request like that we could still play him and see what he has for new CS, but it also could mean the end of his Jets career and we dump him. Point being, we're in a somewhat advantageous position to negotiate with him now, but it would need to be fair under the circumstances
As stupid as Easterby and McNair are, you're probably right, but I don't think he would report. I think he would sit out rather than play for those jerks.
I'd rather have Watson than Lawrence. IMO the odds of Lawrence being even as good as Watson aren't great, and the odds of his being better are even worse. I think he'll be a very good QB, but I have really cooled on him and his potential.
Sure, if his desire is to simply make whatever money he can rather than as much money he can, he will certainly find there is money out there and his income will not drop to $0. somehow I don’t believe that is his likely financial goal.
I disagree a bit here. I see people saying some variant of, "the Texans can just wait this out", but that discounts what I think is the single most important factor in making a deal: the immediacy AND certainty of the 2021 draft picks that could be on the table. The reality is the Texans have the rare ability to get nearly immediate return on their trade AND know exactly where the primary pick(s) acquired will land. This is unbelievably valuable in a deal like this, and if they wait too long and lose out on either the #2 or #3 pick in this draft it hurts them more than anything. Normally in big pick packages like we'll see for Watson there's a ton of uncertainty in what the what the value will end up being - that's one of the main reasons why future draft picks are discounted in trades the farther out the go. That the Texans, in this nightmare of a situation, have two viable trading partners sitting at #2 and #3 overall in a draft that has viable QB prospects in those slots, and the draft is less than 3 months away, is a borderline miracle for them. tl;dr There's an enormous value difference between a "1st rounder in a future draft" and "the #2 or #3 overall pick to be used in 12 weeks". The Texans would be fools to throw that away for the sake of pettiness.
But they’d lose the chance to draft their new QB this year. Hurts Deshaun and the Jets of a deal is not done by the draft. All other teams basically become players.
I think Connor Hughes is nuts when he says that it doesn't matter what the Jets have to give up to get Watson. I am opposed to giving up both #1 picks this year. I'd give up the #2 pick and our 1st rounder in 2022 and 2023 as well as the 4th in 2023, and would give up the second 3rd rounder this year, and would even consider giving up our 2nd round pick next year, but I'm not giving up Q. Williams or both #1s this year. Superstar QB or not, they screwed up and they alienated him and they are desperate for draft picks, if other teams want to give up a butt load of picks, fine, but I have limits to what I would give them, and I think JD will as well. I don't think he'd give up 3 of our top 5 picks this year and our #1 next year, nor would he give up Q. Williams.
Don't ever underestimate the willingness of an organization to flex their muscles. He's not the first player to threaten this, wouldn't be the first to do it and won't be the last on either account if it happens. The league has been filled with holdouts. The Bengals told their own franchise quarterback to go pound sand and called his bluff when he said he'd retire rather than play for the Bengals again until they received an offer they couldn't refuse mid season.
