It's about 50-100 short of a full season. Point being, it's hard to use the, "Oh, he's been much better since he's been on the Mets," line as a convincing argument when you're not actually talking about a lot of ABs, comparatively.
Ok fine lets compromise he will probably be around the area of 125, but he hasn't gone over 130 for a couple of years and just because he can be at that level for one half of a season doesn't mean he can be able to sustain it for a full season. Considering that he is just the 4th OFer it is plenty good indication of what kind of hitter he is. He is the type of hitter that excels in the 4th OFer role which he started to be when he was for the Mets, he gets overexposed if people ask him toi be a starter for long term. He has had only one full season so it is foolish to say that he can't achieve 120
No, it doesn't mean he'll be able to sustain it for the full season, and I never said he was definitely going to. I said that he's never been under 120 at any point in his career, except for last year, so your projections for him were way skewed to the pessimistic side. Additionally, if you believe in motivational factors, it is a contract year for Abreu. (I don't necessarily believe in that, but all reports are saying that he's in great shape this year, when all reports last year were saying he was out of shape.) He's the type of hitter who excels in the 4th OF role? Um... okay. I was unaware that we had a label for people "excelled" in those roles, or that Endy Chavez is obviously one of those hitters. Seems like you're trying to justify his improved numbers on the Mets after the fact. Sigh. I'm not saying he "can't". If you're going to attempt to turn my own arguments against me, please make sure it amounts to more than just word games. Make sure there's some substance to it. Otherwise, it just seems petty. Shall we recap? You said Ryan Church (age 29), who by your own admission has only had one real full season, has "age on his side" as your reasoning for why you are expecting him to put up better numbers than he has in any extended period prior. I'm saying that things like that are a strange thing to bank on when making these comparisons and projections. Nearly all of your analyses for why the Mets and Yanks OFs are going to be equal are geared toward the optimistic side for Mets performance, and the pessimistic for the Yankee performance. If you're going to do an analysis, take a realistic approach... not the one you'd like to see happen.
It is tricky to look at contract year motivation factors since while you have cases like that, players like Andrew Jones absolutely stink because they must hit it big for a payday, it can work both ways. Much like a reliever who are in games too often and figured out later in the season, Chavez has shown to be the same, he even showed this last year before his injury in which he was forced to play everyday due to our OF injuries, he quickly began to struggle, much like how relievers in the game too long get killed later in games because the batter started to figure him out the same logic applies here. These were your exact words, and all I said was that he is capable of getting to 120 not that he will and since he is going to a more hitter friendly ballpark and his numbers was already in the 115 range it isn't much of a stretch and is realistic. However the biggest point of all of this is that one of the players we are talking about may not even be an outfielder this coming year since the OFers for the Yankees are more like DH players then they are outfielders
As of right now the last thing you accomplished on the field was the biggest late season implosion ever witnessed. Santana is huge but nothing is a given anymore talk some trash when the Mets are actually winning games and when the season is actually underway. As of right now the poopy Red Sox are the champs and everyone else is a loser which is whack as hell I know it pains me to say it. Can't wait for the season though
