matsui, damon, and abreu were all hurt at some point last year and they still managed to outproduce the mets outfield....and thats not even including melky....
I'd rather have L-Millz out there, but Omar saw fit to trade him to the Nats. Church is what he is, he wont kill us, but he wont win any games on his own. I don't think anybody was 'busting a nut' over him.
You shouldn't compare injuries with what the Mets went through in the OF last year, because it isn't even close
As for this argument, the outfields are basically equal. Beltran will probably outproduce everyone by a decent margin. That gap will be nullified by Abreu playing more than Alou. And the combined effort of Church and Chavez will equalize things with the combined effort of Damon and Cabrera.
No I didn't fail to mention him, he is specifically the one I meant that would be outproduced by a decent margin by Beltran especially since he is getting older, without him the margin between Beltran and the rest is substancial
Matsui was banged up all year long last year, and still had an OPS+ of 123 compared to Beltran's 126. Beltran should out-produce him, but it's not anything close to a sure thing that it will be by much.
You are forgetting that he is getting older and is much more likely to get hurt for a longer period of time, and Beltran was banged up most of the year as well so your point is moot.
Since people have been bringing up OPS+ this post is inaccurate only in that using the career OPS isn't a good indicator of next year stats, as I stated in the post above Beltran has been dinged up for most of last year which is the cause of his OPS+ being 126, other than the weird year in 2005 most of his stats have average closer to 135 the last 5 years, Matsui if healthy is still going to be 34 so it will probably be likely that his OPS will probably reach mid 120s again, while Abreu has been a decent player he still doesn't have the power to even get to 120 again, Damon may if lucky sniff 110 but that is closer to homer level optimism, and Cabrera will be lucky to get to mid 90s. Alou when healthy could reach low to mid 130s, he was at 138 last year. Chavez will probably be a couple of 5-8 points behind Cabrera, and Church is capable of getting to 120 since age is on his side. Most likely due to Alou getting hurt again it will wind up being even.
No it's not. You have no basis on saying that Beltran will outproduce Matsui by a decent margin other than the fact Matsui is getting older. From the beginning of the season this year, he won't be the every day LFer and will DH much more, which should, if it has any effect at all, keep him fresher than ever before. And besides, Matsui will start the year 33 years old playing DH the majority of the time, while Beltran will be 31 and expected to cover a lot of ground every single day in CF. The age issue is being overblown. So, while Beltran should and probably will be better than Matsui, there's really nothing that says he will outproduce Matsui by a wide margin.
even if what you say is true in reality his numbers haven't been that much better then this passed year even when he was healthy, although I never did say it was going to be a wide margin just a decent one about 8-12 OPS+ difference
So what you're saying is that Beltran was awesome... except for all those times that he wasn't. But then you say this... What are you basing that on? Last year was the first full year in his entire career where he was below 120 (at 116). And it was mostly due to a horrid... and I mean horrid... first half of the year. And that was (allegedly) mostly due to a not-quite healed oblique injury. Abreu's OPS+ in the second half was 137, and was over 150 for July and August. When he's right, the dude can still mash with the best of 'em. I mean, you could make a better argument that Beltran is less likely to get to 120, based on the fact that he's already done it several times in his career. Well, that's above his career average, so I don't know why anyone would expect more than that from him. Now, this, I don't understand. Say what you will about how high you think Melky's ceiling is, but you have a kid here who has already posted OPS+ numbers of 95 and 89 in his first two full years at the MLB level... but he'll be lucky to get to mid-nineties? You're saying that it is more likely that this 23-year-old outfielder will regress at the plate as opposed to develop? I don't know man... your entire scenario doesn't seem to be the likely one... it seems like you would need nearly everything to turn out best-case scenario for the Mets, and worst-case for the Yanks in order for these predictions to be true, just based on what these players can do/have done. I mean, you're talking about Alou getting to 130's again, even though he's 42... but Matsui is "getting older" in your eyes? Endy Chavez has a career OPS+ of 76 (!!!), is as up and down as they come, and at 30, what you see is probably what you get. Church (at 29) has "age on his side" and so is capable of putting up a better year than he ever has... but, again, Melky is "lucky" to get to mid-nineties.
Nope what I am saying is the years that brought his OPS+ career number down was the years where he was just developing into the years where he was now, and as for 05 he had went through an adjustment phase like what Arod went through and based on basically his entire career that was just an outlier year. He has yet to get back his HR stroke from 2 years ago, until he gets back to that which seems unlikely all of those high 135+ years that he had in Philly looks more like an illusion than anything else, and the first horrid half was due to more than an injury or else he'd be mashing 25+ HRs a year He could until he forgot how to hit with power after that HR derby, and don't do something you are accusing me of and forgetting the bad times of the year. not a chance, like I said the years you are basing that on was much earlier in his career. Ok then I meant to say that he was likely to get mid 90s even if you bring Damon down to a 100 and bring up melky to 100 the argument is still the same. Alou has been doing 130s and he was close to 140 at 41 so that isn't being too optimistic to see his OPS+ drop 7-8 points due to age. And like I said earlier even based on his career that his ceiling is probably 130 so even though you claim injury for him he probably won't improve which is what I meant by getting older. Chavez has a career OPS+ of 76 but since he has been with the Mets it has been much higher. and he was even above 100 2 years ago so seeing him break 90 isn't much of a stretch. Church is going from RFK to Shea which should help his numbers a bit and that gets him above 120, and he was over 130 in 2006 so "is capable of putting up a better year than he ever has" is just flat out wrong. These outfields from both teams still screams even. And that isn't even bringing up the fact that one of these players for the Yankees may not even be an OFer next year.
Phil Hughes was throwing a no-hitter in his 2nd start, before injuring his hamstring. As for that ERA over 3 comment... Hughes: A: don't feel like doing the math, but its under 3 AA: 2.09 AAA: 2.20 Minor League Total: 2.03 Chamberlain: A: 2.03 AA: 3.35 AAA: 0.00 Minor League Total: 2.45 Kennedy A: 1.29 AA: 2.59 AAA: 2.08 Minor League Total: 1.87 Buccholz: A: 2.61 (worst A ERA of the 4) AA: 2.62, 1.77 (2 separate seasons) AAA: 3.96 (worst AAA ERA of the 4) Minor League Total: 2.46 (worst minor league total out of the 4)
You do realize that OPS consists of more than HRs right? As I said, last year, after getting his stroke back, he put up an OPS+ of 137, and had months where he was hitting the heck out of the ball. HR or just long doubles, doesn't matter. And we weren't talking about him finding his 135+ days. You said, "He still doesn't have the power to get it up to 120 again. And considering that last year was his first below 120, and that it was isolated almost entirely to the first half of the season... well... that's just bullshit, plain and simple. No. I'm not doing what you're doing, because I'm not saying, "Hey forget about that bad season or two or three." And I'm not saying, "Abreu can and will have an OPS+ over 130 because of that second half." I'm saying that he had a bad half of the season, but within that season, he also had a ridiculously good half. And it was the second half of the season... so it's not like you can say his OPS+ 130 days are behind him. To sum up my point: I'm not saying Abreu will perform at such and such a level... I'm saying it's foolish to believe he can't because of last year. All the evidence says otherwise. You don't even have a full season's worth of ABs for him with the Mets. That's hard to say. You're right... I'm sure you want him to have another 196 AB season.
