It’s so hard for me to buy into a Round 1 TE, because you don’t need a difference maker at that position. You gotta have an effective one, but they just need to be reliable and they don’t have to be responsible for explosive plays. I’d rather hit trenches with those picks. The Jets will likely spend a large percentage of their snaps in 12 personnel, not 11. That means that you would pay a guy like JuJu to not play for at least half the game, or you’d bench Moore for at least half a game? Doesn’t make sense to me. Go cheaper at Slot WR because they won’t see as many plays, in my opinion. Run most effectively, the Jets offense will only have 2 WR’s on the field more frequently than many teams. The Jets two primary WR’s for the next couple of years at least will probably be Davis and Moore.
That's the problem in the NFL. There aren't a lot of quality QBs out there running around. It's why so many JAGs are still in the NFL. Which teams really have great backups?
I agree with a lot of this, the main exceptions are this: The QB and C relationship is important, and I’d like to have the vet there through Wilson’s first 2 seasons for continuity. I’d like to draft a replacement but let’s not give our 2nd year QB a rookie C to navigate around. I’d like to upgrade the OL elsewhere so that the OL would look like Becton/Vera-Tucker/McGovern/Teller/Neal in 2022 and Becton/Vera-Tucker/2nd Year Guy/Teller/Neal 2023 and beyond. The other thing is what I said above, I just don’t buy into the round 1 TE. I have yet to see a 1st round TE be worth the pick in the NFL, and while Pitts may be the outlier, there is no Pitts in this draft, not even Wydermyer. I am fine with trading back with one of the 1sts if it makes sense, but I’d like to see 1st round talent at OT and Edge brought in.
Normally, I might agree, but if this system is supposed to be like SF's (and I think it is), then I disagree. In this offense, a difference maker is needed at TE. Look at Kittle and their other TEs. I agree with you that I want no part of JuJu. Going cheaper is what the Jets would be doing with Moore and Berrios in the slot. They shouldn't be using any big money to sign a FA slot WR, or drafting another slot WR. Most of Moore's production in college was in the slot. If we didn't have Mims and Cole, I'd say fine, try Moore outside, but we do, so imo Moore needs to stick strictly to the slot except on gadget plays and maybe an occasional play on the outside.
Good point. My only concern is that are we going to find a C in the 3rd or 4th round that could be even as good as McGovern in the 2022 draft, much less Linderbaum? With the C position being so important, if we could upgrade it, the difference might more than make up for Zach having to learn to work with a new C. I could definitely get on board with that. Again, I understand your reluctance to use a 1st round pick on a TE. If we could find a Kittle or Mark Andrews type in the 2nd round, great, but I don't know that we will, and the position is too important in this offensive scheme and in the NFL today for a young QB. Hopefully, Wydermyer is there at our pick in the 2nd round.
I think that is a little bit of a misunderstood sentiment. It’s true BUT you do have to aim to build a roster that works well with a scheme. Also, you need a QB who knows the scheme well enough that he understands the tweaks otherwise it’s just piling more plays onto his plate to learn and master. It’s just something so much easier said than done with a rookie signal caller and a team in a brand new scheme.
I don't think we need trenches with the 2nd 1st rounder. we could grab an edge or OT with our 1st pick. hopefully and edge to pair with lawson. for example lets say we keep moses and fant. we sign an OG in FA like you said. we'd be better off with late picks as backups to groom for the future. lots of talent at OG in the 2nd round and OT. remember we have 4 picks in the 1st 2 rounds. wydermyer is the best TE in the draft by a lot. there are about 5 top TEs in the NFL right now like pitts, waller, kelce, kittle, and maybe andrews or hockenson. the rest are pretty average across the board. if wydermeyer can be the next waller type TE it's hard to pass on that. That still allows us an edge rusher with our 1st pick plus if seattle keeps losing we can trade down and still get wydermyer who's expected to go 20ish to the 2nd round right now. as far as personnel goes. that's not correct. according to our snap count last game griffin was in 77% of plays Wesco 25% and brown 2%. that means we were in 12 personnel only 2 plays the entire game. meanwhile at WR crowder was 80%, davis was 72%, moore was 57%, cole was 40%, berrios was 9% and mims 31%. that means we were mostly in 11 personnel. the run scheme of shannahan is to spread the defense and use big WRs as blockers which is why we wanted corey davis and althletic lineman and let the shifty RBs work in space. that means a combo of juju and wydermeyer would likely see over 80% of the snaps each in every game. you can see it in GB and SF too. they run mostly 11 not 12. not sure where you came up with that but if that's your basis, based on the data, do you want to rethink it? I'm all for drafting 2 TEs don'tg et me wrong but 1 later as a backup because all of our TEs are ass right now. the other option is to draft 1 and sign a vet and the TE market is ok. ertz, gronk (though I doubt they don't resign with their teams) uzomah, ebron (who likely hits FA for sure), everett, williams, allie-cox, tonyan, hurst, engram, njoku, giseki, james, and seals-jones are all solid options but i'd still like to pair them with wydermeyer. espcially if seattle pick is top 15 and we can trade down to 20ish to get him and add an extra 2nd rounder
The thing is that neither Cole, Crowder, nor Berrios are on the roster in 2022, and Crowder is pretty damn cheap as it is. Crowder costs just over $5 million this year, and I doubt he’d command much more going forward. For my money, that’s solid value for a guy of his caliber who built a season of chemistry with Wilson. Crowder is much better than Berrios. Unless Mims really turns it around, Davis and Moore are by far the best 2. I’d rather use them and get a legit TE and boost OL. If the plan is for Moore to be outside in 2022, then I’d rather get him his reps there now for experience. The best TE’s in the NFL were all later than 1st round picks. Waller, Andrews, Kittle, Kelce, Gronkowski, Uzomah, even Ertz or Graham when they were elite. 6th, 3rd, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 3rd respectively. The other top producing TE’s this year: Knox, Schultz, Gesicki (3rd, 4th, 2nd) Would you rather have Noah Fant or any one of those guys I listed plus a 1st round pass rusher?
Well using last game as an example is probably not a great representation because the Jets TE1 was out, and their TE’s are terrible in general. Not to mention they played from a huge deficit almost the whole game so rushing wasn’t really a great option. If you take a look at the Titans game, which is probably a better example of the Jets offense: -Kroft: 75% -Griffin: 57% -Wesco: 30% -Brown: 2%
It's a fair point that it's 1 game so lets look at the whole season. jets have had 374 total offensive snaps. now injuries effect numbers so i'll have to account for it best I can so IMO the best way to do that is look at the whole groups rather then the individual players. Our WRs have taken 1015 snaps as a group our TEs have taken 530 snaps as a group that means that on average we have 2.71 Wrs in on each play and 1.41 TEs in on each play. Plus when you factor in short yardage/goaline where we have 3TEs and only 1 WR plus factoring in wesco who plays FB on some plays but gets credit for a TE snap, plus the fact we never seem to use 4WR sets (it's always 3 actual WRs and either a TE or RB as the 4th one) it's clear that we use 3WR 1 TE most often based on those numbers. or 11 personnel. edit: Found a better source that actually tracks it https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html according to this we use 11 personnel 67% of snaps and 12 personnel 32%. that means liek I was saying our base offense is 3WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB which means having a TE1 and WR3 are important positions. which can be filled with wydermeyer and JuJu at the cost of a last 1st and about 12mil a year for juju. we can keep berrios, mims, and smith to round out the WR group and with cole and crodwer out juju only costs 4 mil more then we were paying them
Agreed. There is no first round tightend this year anyways and most are found in the mid rounds. Charlie Kolar from Iowa State has always been my guy, but Iowa's latest stud tightend Sam Laporta looks like yet another winner from that program if he comes out. Kolar is more of a power forward type who shields with his body and blocks well enough to play in line. Haven't seen too much of Laporta blocking wise but he's got good speed. Isaiah Likely from Coastal is another guy to keep an eye on. He's small though and will likely get destroyed early in his career blocking since he plays such inferior competition to what he'll see in the NFL.
The Jets really like Berrios, so I believe that he will be re-signed. Supposedly, they like Cole as well, although he hasn't done a lot, but he's cheap. I agree that Crowder is a lot better than Berrios, but after Crowder was forced to take a pay cut this year, why would he want to re-sign with the Jets, particularly when they have Moore and probably Berrios? I love him, but don't think he has built a lot of chemistry with Zach yet. Hopefully he will over the remainder of the season, but again, I'll be surprised if he has any interest in re-signing with the Jets. I dont' think we need 3 WRs who are slot WRs, and Berrios will be re-signed. IMO that would not be the best allocation of resources or best use of talent. I don't agree that Moore should play outside. I think he is better in the slot and that Mims should be playing on the outside. Even if we didn't have Mims, I'd think that Moore belongs in the slot and we should draft an outside WR. We're just going to have to agree to disagree on Moore. I know that traditionally TEs were not taken in the 1st round, and if we can get a great one in the 2nd round or lower, awesome, but TEs have become more and more important in the NFL, and they are very important to rookie/young QBs, and in this offensive scheme. I don't believe in blindly following any draft dictum or formula. Rules are made to be broken and there are exceptions to every rule. I haven't done any study or analysis on Wydermyer or any of the other TEs yet, but know that I have read and heard a lot of positives about Wydermyer and his potential.
Let's just sign more free agents. They're so marketable and we're not going to win anything anyway. We can probably run this sad racket for another 5 years before the fans really riot and the NFL steps in.
You really have a problem with Wilson after 5.25 games? You gotta have a little patience with a rookie QB, otherwise Josh Allen and Kyler Murray might be MVP candidates for teams other than the Bills and Cardinals.
Well, I think you absolutely need 2 slot WR’s. If you lose 1 to injury, you need another one who can play a similar role. I just think where we differ really is the belief that Moore needs to play inside. Of course he will take some snaps there, but it’s just wasting his talent if he’s there full time. There is a reason elite slot receivers make around $10 million and elite outside guys make around $20 million. At Ole Miss he started out in the slot because DK Metcalf and AJ Brown played outside. If the Jets had them, I’d say fine, keep him in the slot. As far as whether Crowder would want to come back, he only took a pay cut because he knew what his market would be like. He’ll go wherever he has a good contract offer, he won’t turn his nose up at the Jets.
There would be two slot WRs, Moore and Berrios. Cole can also play in the slot. I don't understand why you think Moore's talents would be wasted in the slot. Please explain. Were Edelman's and Welker's talents wasted in the slot? Have Ju-Ju Schuster's talents been wasted in the slot? In the slot is where the Jets can utilize Moore's talents on Jet sweeps and the gadget plays as well as where he will likely be matched up one on one with a LB or S and be a great mismatch. Yes, he's a great route runner, but he's smaller than most of the CBs, so he is the one at a disadvantage at times on the outside. You may be right as to why Moore started out in the slot, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he should move outside. That is where he has the most experience and probably comfort and confidence. This is where LaFleur's and Saleh stubbornness and inflexibility are really hurting the Jets. They've made up their minds that Moore should play outside. He's largely been ineffective there, but they refuse to alter that plan. The Jets need to put their best (and hopefully young) WRs on the field. I understand wanting to get Crowder on the field because he's so dependable. If I were the HC, I'd bench Davis. He disappears in games, can't get open, falls down, and has dropped waaaaaaaaaaay too many passes for my liking. He'd be catching 100 passes a day from the Juggs machine until his hands were blistered if I was the HC. I'd start Mims over Davis. In that scenario, I probably would play Moore outside some so that Crowder could play this year, but I wouldn't re-sign him even though I love the guy and he's been a great Jet. He isn't the future, at least not the long-term future.
counterpoint. he hasn't been ineffective. When I rewatch film he's open a lot. I seen a metric a few weeks back that had him top 5 in average yards of separation per route. The issue has been pressure on zach where he has to escape and misses his throwing window when he's open. I tagged you in a GVR article where ti shows corey davis wide open for a 60 yard TD but GVR let pressure in that ruined it
