I disagree; it's because many of you get pass the CMP%. He is NOT Logan Thomas. A player of his size, athleticism and arm talent who comes from a pro-style offense will get drafted in the first half of the first round EVERYTIME provided they are not criminally inaccurate. CMP% in college is a funny thing. Bryce Petty completed 63% of his passes in college compared to Allen's 56% but their tapes tells me Allen is more accurate. Mayfield is a 70% guy but when I look at his tape I don't see a super accurate guy that throws with great anticipation or ball placement. I do see a guy that has mastered the offense he is running and makes very good decisions with the ball despite his sometimes Manziel-esque flair.
Although there are not too many busts on here; great job on trying to find comps. I agree with your scouting report on every player except Leftwich and athleticism is an oxymoron.
If Josh Allen is a great QB it will be because he learned to play QB after his college days. There are very few QB's that have managed to do this. Kurt Warner is maybe the best example of a guy who fundamentally changed his style and became a great QB as a result. He played in the Arena Football League where the game is much faster and perfected the very quick push release that became his trademark in the Greatest Show on Turf. He also had multiple thumb injuries associated with it that landed him on IR several times, because the follow through on the motion inevitable caused him to jam his thumb on opponent's helm's a few times a year. Allen has a lot of arm talent and athleticism and some very rough edges to go along with that. His completion percentage has been subpar wherever he's played. In high school at Firebaugh, CA he averaged 54.6% completion percentage over 599 throws. He was still developing at that point at 6'3", 180 lbs and so he was not offered any scholarships by Div I schools. Firebaugh played less talented opponents than most of his peers in that QB class and he didn't dominate even in that situation. He went to a JuCo, Reedley College, and completed 49% of his 259 passes there with a strong 26 TD to 5 Int ratio and 7.8 yards per attempt. The strong arm and the weak competition worked in his favor and he -emailed every Div I college looking for a scholarship after his year there. Wyoming and Eastern Michigan responded and he accepted Wyoming's offer. In 3 years at Wyoming he had 649 attempts and a 56.2 completion percentage. The general consensus on accuracy as a passer is that it's something you learn at a relatively young age as you are learning to throw the football. You have thousands upon thousands of repetitions just throwing the ball around with friends before you ever get into a coaches vision lane. You have thousands of reps in high school and college to refine that ability, the fundamental ability to throw the football well enough to complete a good percentage of your passes. It's obvious from the numbers that Josh Allen has a ceiling on completion percentage that is well below 60%. He's going to have to fundamentally change his passing approach to raise his completion percentage to acceptable levels. What he is doing, and has been doing since high school just isn't going to work at the next level. He was a worse overall passer at Wyoming than he was in high school and JuCo. He's likely to be a worse overall passer at the NFL level than he was in high school. If you could give him Julio Jones and De'Andre Hopkins as his receivers he might well be able to make a living just throwing deep to them. That's not the NFL though, you don't find two talents like that on the same roster ever and you cannot pay them for long anyway if that somehow happens. If a team drafts Josh Allen high in the draft they need to know that they can change his current throwing style to become effective at the NFL level. Unless they have a great infrastructure in place to make that happen he is a strong pass in the draft. Likely he should be a strong pass anyway in this class because there are several QB's available whom you do not need to teach how to throw the ball at the baseline level.
What you meant to say is "Guys with this level of a [CMP%] usually get draft later (or not at all), not in rd 1." George was a special thrower in the class of Marino. Unfortunately, he was "special" in other areas too.
You know me, I don't put a lot of stock in CMP%, I am after all advocating for Lamar Jackson. I thought Connor Cook would be a halfway decent QB and he didn't crack the 60 mark. I am not saying he's Logan Thomas, but he could be a supped up version of Josh McCown. McCown was drafted in the 3rd round I believe. Actually, McCown might not be the best comparison, statistically Allen trumped McCown. Allen has made more NFL throws, he can make any throw in the book IMO, that I cannot deny. But its so inconsistent. From game to game, its not there.
Ok, I get it, comparing him to George is extreme, but comparing him to Marino / Rodgers is ok. George had a huge arm, could throw 70 yards going into the wind. He lacked decision making / some accuracy as a pro. Still was a pro-bowler at one time. Odds are, he won’t even be as good as George was. It’s just the way it goes in the NFL. At one time Rick Mirer was being compared to Joe Montana.
I meant accuracy, or more frank - consistent accuracy. It’s not like Allen was asked to make difficult throws in that offense and it’s not like his Wr’s dropped a lot of passes. I think his 56% is well deserved + He will need to improve to make it as an nfl qb. Also agree George had a special arm, like Allen. Doesn’t mean it will always translate.
I've said it countless times on this board, a QB who is not natural accurate can be "schemed" into a a 60+ CMP%. Michael Vick whose CMP% was 53% in his 6 years in ATL was 60% in PHI, as high as 63% in that one great year he had in 2010. He didn't learn in jail to be more accurate. Andy Reid simply provided him more "lay-up" throws. Favre and McNabb are other examples of not naturally accurate passers who cross that 60% barrier thanks to the scheme they played in. In addition to the above, accuracy is not a major red flag for me with Allen because it seems to only come into play when he is throwing the ball too hard and off platform. Something he had do a lot in Wyoming because of how little separation the WRs got and shoddy protection. When he is not trying to throw the ball at 100 mph while off balanced, he is pretty accurate.
Stop right there. Based on the bold, I already know you have not watched a lot of tape on him or, worst yet, you don't know what you are watching.
The counter-argument to Allen's accuracy problems is that he was a true three sport star in high school, starring on the football, baseball and basketball teams. It's possible that he spent more time perfecting his curve ball and 3 point shot than he did his throwing motion and passing accuracy. It's possible that the thing that made him stand out on a football field was how hard he could throw the football and how far. That still begs the questions of how are you going to make Josh Allen a better passer than he currently is and who exactly do you have on staff to do that? Obviously if we had somebody on staff that could fix the problem of air-mailing too many throws we wouldn't be drafting a QB at all this year because Hack would be playing QB for us. Seriously, how do you see the Jets taking on a project like Josh Allen and succeeding with it? Gotta pack for a trip. I'll be back later this evening.
You "make him a better passer", or in TGG terms, improve his CMP% by scheming easy completions. Also you have him continually focus on tempering the ball (i.e., arm strength is not needed on every throw). He is NOT Hack; he is NOT suffering from chronic mechanical and footwork problems.
Sorry you disagree. I’ve watched the tape. How many NFL type throws does he make from the pocket? The answer is not many. How many times does he throw a WR open with an NFL style anticipatory throw? The answer is not many. How many times does he vacate the pocket and keep his head down instead of surveying the field? Way too many times. Can you name a starting NFL qb/offense that threw the ball as little as Wyoming? Nope, they were protecting this kid to give themselves a better chance of winning. When he was asked to throw more (sophomore), he threw too many picks. With all said, I’m not saying he doesn’t have talent. He does + highest ceiling in this class no doubt.
i didnt watch a ton of josh allen this past year, scratch that i didnt watch more than 40 plays of josh allen this year. and i dont even remember what he did, how he did or how he looked, iirc i saw some of a game that he played late night on a saturday in the snow. but im not even sure about that. the thing that people have to understand is that offense really can dictate completion percentage. if he was throwing the ball down the field like he played in oakland during the 70s and 80s then he isnt going to have a 70 percent completion percentage. if he is throwing check downs constantly and his backs are his main targets then it should be expected. does he put the ball where its supposed to be? does he put it on the back shoulder across the middle vs a zone? does he lead the back on a swing route? is he leading the guy on a slant vs man with no safety over the top? is he throwing hitches to the proper shoulder? that is how you judge accuracy, its not about completion percentage. ive explained this a million times with our guy sancho who loved to throw the swing route to the back shoulder and complete it for a gain of 2 instead of 8 simply because he was inaccurate. the bottom line is that its still a complete and total crap shoot and how he processes and makes decisions will be far more important than accuracy or arm strength, the amount of time and effort he puts into game planning and watching film so he KNOWS what the other guy is going to do in every situation is FAR more important and shit today they KNOW you are game planning and looking at tendencies so they adjust and you have to be able to know what they know that you know and adjust to what you know they will do to adjust to what you know that they know haha
