The Bengals would be a good example for this argument. Their O-line is 21st in the league but their offense is 5th in scoring, 1st in YPP, 1st in completion, and 7th in passing yards.
And they are resting Burrow because he took a bad hit last week and they are afraid he’ll get hurt this week.
I understand what WAR means, but I don't think your argument is coherent. The WAR numbers I cited are for top 10 players at a given position - or said differently, how many wins a top 10 player at a position gets you versus an average replacement-level player at that position. Top 10 is arbitrary of course, but it's a decent enough proxy for "better than average". With that in mind, regarding the bold - that's not what WAR indicates. WAR indicates that the drop off from an elite WR to an average one is a larger drop off than any other position other than QB. Doesn't it make the most sense to thus prioritize elite WR's? Since the price you pay for not doing so is larger than with almost every other position. I think you're overthinking this. Regarding the CB example - you're saying you want 4 guys who you're confident can play but in the next sentence you say using first round picks on CB's discourages that? I don't get it.
I want to respond but probably will wait until tomorrow, since I'm watching all of the games. I can make myself more clear when I have time.
After seeing the barn burner btw Buffalo and Mahomes, the question must be asked Do we need a S like Hamilton to beat top tier FQBs? We may not realistically have to ask that question in 2022 but to have that piece in place in 2023, 2024, 2025 etc could be a difference maker.
I will be totally shocked if JD takes Hamilton. Very good safeties can be had in the 2nd, maybe 3rd round. We don't need Hamilton over great players at premium positions.
I would also be shocked but definitely OK with it. What great players do you like at premium positions of need that would be less shocking at #4 if we can’t trade back and the 2 top edge are gone?
Based on the quality of safeties in free agency, I think the more likely scenario is paying for Marcus Williams or Jesse Bates.
Exactly. Even if he might be the BPA at his position. The priority should be playmakers (CB or WR or DE)
True, but part of the reason Chase had such a great first year is because the two receivers behind him are also very good. The Bengals' 3rd best WR this year had 300 more receiving yards than our best WR. Hamilton is very much a playmaker imo. Great ball skills and great in aggressive pursuit of ballcarriers.
Here's a couple of those plays, pretty sure it was ND's first game of the season. The first is a good play on a ball that probably never should have been thrown; the second is an amazing play coming from the far side of the field to grab the INT on the near sideline. Notre Dame's Kyle Hamilton Picks Off 2 Passes Against FSU | ACC Must See Moment - YouTube
Well, there is no WR worth the 4th pick value wise, not close…so is either one of the two DEs if there or the CB Stingley, or OT as a long shot.
I would rather take a safety with the 4th pick that had a 80%+ chance of being a top 5 Safety than pick a WR or Edge Rusher that had less than 50% chance of being a top 10 at their position. WR position is tougher to predict than S. If top 2 Edge are gone at 4, I am for taking a 2nd/3rd tier in the 2nd or 3rd round. The more I research, the more I like Hamilton and Sauce Gardner. I also like N Dean as LB -- another low risk pick.
