I may be mistaken, but I believe it's a fact that on average, OL do play longer than players at other positions, although I haven't seen anyone claiming that any WR we draft won't be able to play a long time. I dispute your assertion that an LT isn't likely to help this season. That OT is very likely to play, especially with the way the turf and Metlife chews up and spits out OL, and he could be the one who saves the season.
No one is saying drafting a 1st round tackle just for depth. It's for depth this season when Smith is all but guaranteed to miss a number of games, to learn from Smith and Moses this season, and to start next season and be able to play at a fairly high level, at least higher than most rookies are able to do. The concept of needing to draft a tackle this year because we are worried our starting LT is likely to get hurt is totally not dumb, but smart when one has a player like Smith who is 33 and hasn't played every game in a season since 2015 and the Metlife turf chews up and spits OL out like they're nothing. In fact, to ignore those facts would not only be dumb, but be delusional and grounds for firing, especially when that GM has failed to fix the OL in every single one of the seasons he has been here.
In a different situation, I would agree it’s a dumb reason. However, for US, THIS year, we have 2 starting OTs who are both over 30, one of whom is coming off injury in Moses and the other in Smith who is great when on the field, but has missed several games each year for several years in a row…I would say we should have sufficient concern about their ability to stay on the field all year. So to me, it is most certainly NOT a dumb reason. I think expecting both Smith and Moses to play all 17 games, plus hopefully playoffs, would be a dream scenario but chances of that happening are not even close to 100%. To me, hoping they both stay healthy all year sounds a lot dumber than taking a tackle high in a draft that is supposedly strong in that position. I think the tackles most certainly helps NEXT year as neither Moses nor Smith are signed past this year, right?, but also a tackle will almost certainly help THIS year as well. Are there other options for a tackle that will start the year as a backup? Sure. First ones are the guys we already have in Mitchell and Warren. Neither played great and neither would be someone I would want to have to play for 4 or 5 games. Another option is Bahktiari…but shit, that dude is hurt more often than anyone! So not the most reliable. I just see OT as the best option for us in round one, followed neck and neck by WR. Without a 2nd round pick, whatever tackle we can find in round 3 probably is not going to be much of an upgrade over the guys we have, so that option just sucks. Unfortunately, we’re in a bad spot. We need a solid WR as much as we do an OT, but I think you can find a better WR in round 3 than an OT…though to be honest I’m no expert in college prospects so I may not be right there. I strongly prefer OT, but can get my head around WR. The one thing I would really not want to see is TE at 10. You can kind of see this coming, but man unless that dude becomes Kelce or Kittle, I just think that’s such the wrong move for this team right now.
Been following the excellent debate among the various supporters of OT, WR, and Bowers at pick 10. Good job, folks, of pointing out the advantages and disadvantages of each choice! My preference is to take Alt or Fashanu for several reasons. 1) They are left tackles, and I consider left tackle the second most important pick on offense after QB. It seems to me that we've had repeated demonstrations over the last few years that an inadequate offensive line spells disaster for both the passing game and the rushing game. 2) I also think Alt's and Fashanu's upside at their position is higher than the other choices (including Bowers, Thomas, Latham, and Fuaga), as will be measured by number of All-Pro teams, Pro Bowl Games, etc. 3) I think Alt or Fashanu will get plenty of use in their rookie year. Our great starting left tackle has never played a full schedule since the 2015 season, and he missed 14, 6, and 13 games from 2020 until 2022, before missing 3 games in 2023. Smith will be turning 34 in December. 4) The need is greater at LT than at TE or even at WR. Our depth at OT is currently Warren and Mitchell. Their play so far suggests that neither is an NFL starting left tackle. In fact, they set the bar so low that even our current WR 3, Lazard, looks like a more competent, accomplished choice at his position than they do at theirs. Let us remember, too, that Rodgers made Lazard look like a halfway decent WR 2 in Green Bay, and Rodgers can probably do it again if given time to throw. The Jets' TE room is clearly filled with more talent that the current backup offensive tackle choices. 5) The 2024 draft is deeper at wide receiver than it is at left tackle. Even if the Jets are stuck at pick 72 after taking Alt or Fashanu, they will have plenty of talented wide receivers to select, possibly including: NFL Draft Tracker: 73. X. Legette, 76. A. Gould, 91. Tez Walker, 114. J. Polk, 142. B. Rice Great Blue North: 75. L. McCaffrey, 92. Tez Walker, 103. J. Baker, 116. J. Polk, 122. J. Burton, 130. J. Wilson, 146. B. Rice Drafttek: 73. J. Polk, 77. J. Burton, 82. B. Rice, 86. M. Washington, 97. J. McMillan, 102. J. Baker, 108. J. Thrash, 119. J. Wilson, 133. J. Cowing, 134. L. McCaffrey NFL Draft Buzz: 73. J. Polk, 90. J. Baker, 93. M. Washington, 96. B. Rice, 99. J. McMillan, 125. J. Wilson, 130. J. Thrash, 141. A. Smith, 142. A. Gould, 147. J. Cowing, 149. L. McCaffrey Let's face it: the Jets' WR 3 is going to have fewer targets than Wilson, Williams, Conklin, and Hall. It is also questionable whether our offensive coordinator can come up with a scheme that will fully exploit Bowers' talents. Are these things worth giving up a chance to draft the team's first franchise left tackle since D'Brickshaw Ferguson?
If Alt falls to 10 then we have to take him. After that, Bowers would be great, but I really prefer to just trade down. Sent from my genius mind.
Bowers' floor is clearly as a good NFL hybrid TE, and there's some chance that he may end up being a unique target with productivity rivaling Tony Gonzalez. That being said, I think drafting a franchise left tackle is a clearer path to the Jets long-term success. An interesting recent development (and this is bound to swing back and forth until draft day) is that Fashanu is getting some better evaluations than Alt in some circles. For example, Baldinger (whom we have to admit knows a thing or two about offensive line play) describes Fashanu with these words: "lots to like . . . length . . . strength . . . experience. Great prospect in an OT loaded draft. Never go wrong building in the trenches." In contrast, his take on Alt seems tepid in comparison: "He's a good player. To me, he's not an elite athlete. But he's smart and tough and can move." 2024 Chargers Draft Prospects: Offensive Line
That makes sense. In everything I've read about Alt, it talks about how flawless his technique is and how he never makes a mistake. I don't recall ever seeing a scouting report that talked about his athleticism. Conversely, they talk about Fashanu's athleticism and size, but say that his technique needs work. With Fautanu, they say what a mauler/brawler he is, and how he never stops fighting, and it's amazing how well he has done with such raw technique. The thing one has to consider is which is more important at this point, technique or athleticism, and is the player one who will keep working to get better, or will he coast and try to get by on natural ability or is his talent already maxed out. With the possibility that if the Jets draft him, Alt may have to play a number of games this season means having the player that's more NFL-ready with a solid technique would be better, but that also means that he may have limited upside, whereas Fashanu still has a lot of upside and could be better than Alt in a couple of years, but might struggle more this season if the Jets draft him and he has to play early. We've seen good examples of both sides of this coin in the NFL. Antonio Cromartie had a ton of talent, but never really developed his technique and became disciplined. He always just got by on his natural ability. He was still very good, but with his size/speed/athleiticism could have possibly been an all-time great if he had worked more at it. The flip side of that is players who come in and are very good their first few years in the league, but then as bigger/stronger/faster players that they have to compete against come into the league, they don't look quite as good. Both will probably become very good (if not great), solid, topflight OTs in the NFL. It will be interesting to see who winds up being the better pro.
It's truly interesting to look at the different media scouting services and mock drafts, and how they rate prospects. They're all over the place at many, if not most positions. The rankings for WRs and RBs are particularly nuts. At RB there doesn't seem to be a consensus best RB. I saw one that has Audric Estimé as the top RB and another one that has Braelon Allen as the top RB, then on other sites they were ranked down in the 20s. Here's an interesting spreadsheet I ran across while trying to find YAC stats on the WR prospects: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...fxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?pli=1#gid=1244172747 I can't vouch for the accuracy of the statistics quoted there, but if accurate, they are very interesting.
Good comments and questions. Everything I know about Fashanu leads me to believe that he will exert himself to the max to improve after he is drafted. For example, does this comment sound like a guy who will take the easy way out and/or goldbrick it? "However, Fashanu — an academic All-Big Ten honoree majoring in Supply Chain and Information Systems — chose to return to school and get his degree." Olu Fashanu's Draft Profile | Penn State, OT Scouting Report (profootballnetwork.com) Fashanu turned down certain first round money to stay in school and graduate. I'm not saying that Alt won't bust his ass to succeed (with his history and his dad's setting the family tradition), and that's why I'm thinking that both can be franchise left tackles for whatever teams draft them.
Thanks for the interesting and informative spreadsheet. One part I found particularly helpful was the listings of RAS scores for most of the prospects. It seems to me that the combination of college productivity and RAS is a fairly good predictor of NFL stardom. Of the two, I'd still tend to lean more heavily on college productivity. For example, while Jamar Chase had a 9.82 RAS and Tyreek Hill had a 9.39, Cooper Kupp had a 5.0 RAS.
Sure, there was some scatter among the WR big boards I looked at, but I was a bit surprised how much continuity there was in the WR rankings beyond the big three. (The RAS scores on your spreadsheet seem to be basically okay, but very slightly off. Here's a link to more reliable RAS numbers: :2024 Draft WR Prospects: Relative Athletic Scores (RAS) – Combine Edition - Steelers Depot) Almost everybody agrees, for example, that Thomas, McConkey, Mitchell, Pearsall, and Worthy will all go before the end of round 2. And there is only slightly more uncertainty about prospects like Legette, Coleman, Corley, and Franklin (although I think Franklin is generally over-rated). This leaves a large grey area for the Jets to consider at pick 72. I think there is reason to believe that many of the other receivers in this draft will have some NFL success. They include Polk (good productivity and RAS of 8.81), Walker (decent productivity and RAS of 9.92), Burton (attitude concerns but good skills and 9.08 RAS), J. Wilson (9.69 RAS), and R. Wilson (8.55 RAS). For draft dark horses, we have some RAS heroes, including C. Johnson and McCaffrey (both 9.42 RAS), Gould (8.84), McMillan (8.6), and M. Washington (8.57). In any case, I think the Jets can get two promising third WR options in this draft. Eyeballing highlights, my guess is that both Polk and Walker will be early starters in the NFL and available at pick 72. But l would hope that the Jets have more astute evaluators checking these guys out!
I found that spreadsheet on Reddit and the poster who put it together said that he took most of the info from the PFF database, and he came up with a few stats on his own based on PFF's info. I think that Thomas and Mitchell will go in the 1st round, maybe McConkey and a few others. I think that Leggette will go fairly early in the 2nd round, and could even sneak into the end of the 1st round. I agree that Franklin is overrated. I hope the Jets have zero interest in him with his 10% drop rate. Leggette, Roman Wilson, B. Rice, and several others have drop rates under 5%. Those are the WRs I hope that the Jets are targeting.
I disagree. IMO there's a wide disparity in rankings after the top 4. Look below. They're all over the place. I've made it so it's easy to see iwth color coding. Some WRs are listed in the top 10 in a couple of the ones below, but then are in the 2nd 10 in most of the rest. Burton is #10 with PFF, #12 with NFLDraftBuzz, #18 with the Great Blue North, and none of the rest even mention him. WR Rankings PFF: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Mitchell, McConkey, Franklin, Wilson, Pearsall, Burton (only 10) Fox Sports: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Coleman, Franklin, Mitchell, Wilson, Rice, Corley (only 10) Walter Football: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Worthy, Mitchell, Leggette, Coleman, McConkey, Pearsall, Wilson, Franklin NFLDraftBuzz: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Mitchell, Franklin, McConkey, Leggette, Coleman, Wilson, Worthy, Burton CBS Sports: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Baker, Franklin, Coleman, McMillan, Pearsall, Polk, Leggette, Corley Sports Illustrated: Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Thomas, Mitchell, Coleman, McConkey, Mitchell, Franklin, Leggette, Worthy, Corley, Walker, Polk, Rice, Wilson, Pearsall The 33rd Team: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Coleman, Thomas, Franklin, Mitchell, Polk, Walker, McConkey, Worthy, Legette, Wilson, Pearsall, Rice, Corley, McMillan ProFootballNetwork: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Mitchell, Worthy, Polk, Coleman, McConkey, Wilson (only 10) Great Blue North: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Mitchell, Worthy, Franklin, McConkey, Leggette, Coleman, Corley, Pearsall, Wilson, McCaffrey, Walker, Baker, Polk, Burton Connor Rodgers/NBC: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Franklin, Polk, Pearsall, McConkey, Mitchell, Coleman, Worthy, Wilson, Leggette, Walker, Corley, Baker, Thrash, Burton, Washington, Gould TheDraftNetwork: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Coleman, Leggette, McConkey, Worthy, Mitchell, Wilson, Thomas, Pearsall, Franklin, J. Wilson, Cowing, Rice, Corley, Baker, McMillan, Polk, Thrash
I only watched Penix and Odunze in the championship game, so I’ll be the first to admit I’m NO expert on those guys. But I do always like to watch the college playoffs and see which players shine in their biggest games. I did all the way back when I called Vernon Gholston to be a bust when he was a full ZERO in his championship game. I think it holds a bit of water. Great players play Great in their biggest games. Based on that ONE single game, I would say I want no part of Penix at all. And honestly, Odunze didn’t pop out and impress me much watching that game live. He did get wide open a time or two if I recall, but just my initial reaction after watching that game was (1) I would NOT draft Penix, and especially not in the first round, and (2) I wasn’t over the moon on Odunze either…I’d probably take one of the tackles over him at 10 overall. Granted, no scientific backup to my initial gut, and I could be wrong…those were just my two impressions because I specifically wanted to see those guys play as I knew WR was a need and figured QB is somewhere in the need list as well.
I hear ya! I had heard about them, but hadn't seen either of them play until the semi-final game. Penix was awesome in that game, and Odunze had a very good, if not great, game, the championship was a different story. I agree with you with regards to how players play in big games being very important. As great as Curtis Martin was in his career, he was not a great player in big games. Players are human and they can have bad games, but if a big-time prospect has a history of not playing big in important games, then I want no part of him.
