Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Yeah...over by Halloween for sure..but not for some areas...very very slow moving once it comes inland and then basically fizzles out.

Really complicated picture...Sandy redevelops a hybird storm off the coast...crazy...but still has winds exceeding 100 mph. Latest Euro has landfall in Central Jersey...and my gut tells me that will change of course.

What it also tells me is this will happen somewhere between Maryland and L.I. and its not going to be pretty...not at all. Bad things to come. Will update more later.

 

Exactly J. Between the digging of the trough from the midwest and the blocking..it has perfect storm written all over it. That causes to enhance the wind field even more than a normal hurricane where the winds closer to the eye are the strongest and fall off dramatically as you move away from the eye. Not the case here. Winds will be felt hundreds of miles from the eye.

There is so much agreeement this far out that its kind of crazy.

Here is a great PARTIAL write up from a very knowledgable person. Will post the link if anyone cares to read all the details:

I am still leaning in the direction of this system being pulled or driven back toward the upper mid-Atlantic coast or the southern New England coast when all is said and done. I base that on the collection of operational and ensemble forecasts that have this system track back toward New England or New Jersey and into New York or Pennsylvania in the end, and the fact that the atmosphere has been given to extremes in recent weeks. There's just so much cold air diving into the back side of the trough, and so much tropical heat and humidity coming northward out of the tropics with and ahead of Sandy, that it seems hard for this system to get brush aside. It can still happen, don't get me wrong. But the evidence seems to be mounting toward the convergence of these two weather systems into an historic storm early next week.

What would happen if the ultimate 'Perfect Storm' scenario unfolds?

1) Destructive storm surge along and east of the point of landfall. Remember Monday is the full moon, too, so we're already going to be at an astronomical high tide to begin with. If the storm hits the coast, that much more water will be piled up along the southern New England coast, and probably Long Island, if not the Jersey Shore.

1a) Extensive coastal flooding and beach erosion. Wave action will build regardless as the storm comes north all up and down the East Coast. Bring this in across the shallow continental shelf, and the waves will build. It could devastate the coastline in a way not unlike Katrina did in Mississippi and Alabama.

2) Destructive winds. This storm will undoubtedly undergo a metamorphosis from a pure tropical system now to something extratropical by the time it would make landfall. What that really means is that the strongest winds will become spread out over a larger area, rather than concentrated near the center. That means a wider swath with gale-force winds, as well as hurricane-force wind gusts, especially if the pressure ends up lower than we see now, which some models have been suggesting for days.

3) Inland flooding. A storm of this nature will still have a tropical imprint all over it. Throw that moisture inland over a stalled front, and squeeze the daylights out of it from the whole column cooling and the process of that tropical air getting thrust up into the higher elevations and over the colder air drilling underneath the storm from the southwest, and you have the potential for 6-10 inches of rain in a 24- to 36-hour period.

4) Heavy wet snow. This may be the least of the concerns in the grand scheme of things, but it is a real threat. With such intense upward motion and high precipitation rates, and with the benefit of elevation, the target area of heavy snow would be central and western Pennsylvania, and perhaps portions of eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia, and the Maryland panhandle.

5) Downed trees and power lines. Add all of the above up - high winds, heavy rain, and, in some place, heavy snow with leaves still on many trees, and there would be widespread trees downed and power lines down. It could eclipse some of the problems with the storm just one year ago in the Northeast.

I am sure there would be more adverse impacts should this storm turn left and slam the coast, but I really, really, really don't want to think about all that. As I stated yesterday, this could become an economic disaster if it unfolds. Forget my petty concerns about whether or not I get to ride for a couple of days. Pure chicken feed. From a meteorological standpoint, this could be a fascinating event. But from a human standpoint, as well as a business and community standpoint, it could be catastrophic.

More updates tomorrow and Friday!http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/a-day-closer-to/620775

 

Once again...we joke about snow storms and stuff...these models are spitting out the worst storm ever for the mid atlantic/ North East...ever. Still 5 days away....but if the models I just saw were to happen..worst storm ever on record. Cant be. Problem is that the same model has had the same storm 7 straight runs..unheard of. Here is a pic

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/...y=no&mo=ecmwf&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=&cu=latest

 

great question:

Ok...if you look at the isobars...the lines that form a wide circle and continue to a much tighter circle until you see the final circle in the middle..just south of NJ, that final circle is the center of the storm.

More imiportantly...the tighter the isobars...or the circles..the more wind. As you can see in the pic the isobars are almost on top of each other....extreme wind way out from the center.

So what you see there is the smallest circle in the middle of all of them...the center...and how tight it is..the strength...and of course the location. Very strong storm.

 

Very interesting spot in central PA cman..sorry..saw your fishing post before and forgot to comment!! Im in and out of here..crazy schedule.

Yeah...central PA could get some snow...somewhere in the area of WV, Western Maryland, Central/Western PA..or Western NY is going to get a snow storm..some will get a heavy slush snow..and just to the east all rain.

Always jealous when I read your fishing stuff CMAN...fresh water...my true first love in fishing.

Its a real tough call where this ends up and who gets what..but here is a tidbit from a very trusted Weather geek/meteorologist..JIL...it really answers your question above:

Sandy will be deepening constantly as she phases with the mid-latitude trough, but her wind field will be expanding as she loses tropical characteristics, and thus her maximum wind speed may remain roughly constant as she moves northward. It is hard to say exactly how strong the winds of this hybrid system will be once it nears New England. It will depend on how strong Sandy gets and what her hybrid structure is like. Regardless, this would be one of the strongest autumn storms to ever hit the northeast U.S., and the impacts would be severe

I bold it because I do not want anyone to think Im that smart...not close...its not from me.

 

If a post does not have a edit quote etc under..does that person have me on block or something? Im trying to comment on Devils Map above. It has none of the models that are in the top 5. Not sure what that is..but only a few models show it that far out to sea.

 

That all makes sense for Jon except the laughing in the end of the post...jon really should take this seriously..and really buy the batteries.

 

Being from L.I. tbird..dont take this lightly my friend. Not where you live. And yes..if you read this part here: but her wind field will be expanding as she loses tropical characteristics, and thus her maximum wind speed may remain roughly constant as she moves northward.

...this high wind field would be caused by many other rare things other than it being a hurricane..because when it makes landfall here...technically, its not.

Lots of bullshit out there TB..but for you? I would be ready. LI could get hammered.

 

Now for some cool stuff. Check out this image after it loads...and watch California..central California..you will see a dark dry slot and then follow it..thats the energy that will pull and merge Sandy into what MIGHT be the storm of a century..or...a chance of showers if they do not merge.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48