Like I said earlier, I'm concerned about the spring spawning season for fishing. If the water temps top 60deg too soon, spawn will come earlier than my planned fishing trip. The usual spawning season is the last week of April, beginning of May when the last frost is over and daytime temps usually approach 65deg. I have a bad feeling thats gonna happen perhaps on April 1st.
JAY hows that Jet stream looking ? Anything long term down the road that will get us outta this Spring weather and back into winter ?
Sorry for delay in posting but nothing on the horizon until now. Here is a definite for you..but the problem is right now, its north of area. NY state, Conn, Mass are the winners but its getting closer to us. Storm develops Wednesday and comes directly for us but right now, we are on the rain side..starting as snow..changing to rain. To the north, someone is getting over a foot of snow. Thats 100 percent. Does the southern TREND continue with the models? Stay tuned. Big storm. Gut..which sucks this year..says yes. Why? Because in a year without winter, the first day of March would be pretty funny and sad to get a snow storm. But I would take it. Non gut also says trends trends trends..and this has trended much farther south with the rain snow line. Will keep you updated. The biggest difference about this storm is that in the past this winter, some models showed storm..some didnt. ALL MODELS show storm...just where does the cold air hang on too?
JAY welcome back :wink: No need to apologize---------------keep us posted---sooner or later one of these things has to HIT US but it will probably be Easter Sunday or as u say March 1st works. I am sure there is plenty of time for this thing to move a million ways but let us know. I will put the kids on standbye
ps the weather girl on ch 7 ( Amy Freeze ) said that the system coming at us Wednesday does NOT look like much. Lets hope she is wrong :grin:
Have I not warned you about these weathergirls..or weather figure heads? They suck and are about 12 hours behind the models. For the most part these weather figures get their forecasts from the GFS model...for the most part. Ok...CBG....I will give you the best website in the world to follow your own weather. The link will be for Wayne, NJ...but just put your city,state in the box provided. This is the link for the NWS. They are only 6 hours behind the models but use their own judgement and are VERY good. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...KX&textField1=40.9459&textField2=-74.2455&e=0 Now, below, in that site, there is a link that says FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. Great stuff...I will post an example of the reading. Some are easier to read than others..but you get an idea of what they are seeing in the future: LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z ECWMF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM...WHILE THE GGEM IS A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE COLDER ECWMF AND WARMER GFS. THAT BEING THE CASE...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS MEAN HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS STAY CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION SUPPORTS A WINTRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST. THERE ARE SEVERAL KEY VARIABLES WITH THE UPCOMING FORECAST...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE POLAR HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE RESULTANT COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE LEE OF TH APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD BE BETTER RESOLVED IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE UPPER AIR NETWORK OVER NOAM. THUS...THE MID WEEK SYSTEM DOES RAISE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE PREFERRED ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE SUBTLEST OF SHIFTS IN LOW TRACK...NORTH OR SOUTH...WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PTYPE. AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A LARGE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PCPN WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. RIGHT NOW...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST...AND PRIMARILY SNOW INLAND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO THU...WITH PERIODS OF PCPN. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN AT THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LI AND NYC METRO. THESE DETAILS THOUGH ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO LOW TRACK AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN COMING DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRECEDING ANOTHER PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LOW TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE WELL NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THUS THIS LOOKS TO BE A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT. FOR WED AND THU...WENT CLOSE TO ECWMF 2M TEMPS...WHICH IS WELL BELOW MOSGUIDE AND EVEN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW HPC GUIDANCE. HIGHS WED AND THU MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OUTSIDE OF HIGHS WED/THU WHICH SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. Great reading no? And this guy from the NOAA is pretty good. Very understandable. Regardless, thats a great link to follow and take your time and read the forecast discussion for your area. Will be following this one VERY closely and will update you and the rest.
Thanks for the Link JAYWAYNE----does this mean you would rather not post anything and have us do our own home/ weather work ? I enjoy this stuff and am going to check it out rite now----thanks again ps keep posting so we can understand the jiberish :wink:
NO NO NO....I love doing this. Just that when you are free...check out that site. Great stuff. Latest NAM model shows the following. The cutoffs are huge and major differences. NYC/SOUTH AND EAST: MIX RAIN SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUM. NORTH JERSEY: SNOW WITH MIXING ISSUES...3-5. NORTHWEST JERSEY: SNOW WITH A BIT MIX....5-8. EASTERN PA/POCONOS...JACKPOT...SNOW 10-14. SOUTHEAST NY STATE: 8-12 CMAN: 6-8 Now those totals will change. Here is the bottom line with this storm. A huge..and I mean a huge..storm will travel along the north part of the country dropping anywhere from 1 to 2 feet of snow in areas of WI. MINN. ETC. That storm will get to about Ohio and shoot its energy to a coastal storm off the coast of Delaware. That storm becomes the major storm and does its thing. While this is occuring...a second storm will form around the same area off the coast of Delaware. You will be hearing a lot of round one and then round two. Right now it looks like round 1 is the big hit and round 2 is not much..but we shall see.
As far as this is concerned CMAN, mother nature will take care of that. From what Im seeing long term, March will be colder than normal and it will all equal out. Just a thought.
So when I take the ferry out to Bull's Island (uninhabited island in the Cape Romain NWR north of Charleston) on March 27 for all day hiking, do I need bug spray or a jacket and toboggan? When I get torn apart by the alligators, I hate to think my meat would be cold. http://www.bullsislandferry.com/ Can't wait, and I seriously hope and pray the weather hold out.
Good. I'm planning on hitting Truman Res. in Warsaw, MO. Lake is perhaps one of the premier fisheries in the country. You already know the deal with spawn. Time to fill the freezer! Fish On!!!
This is like August in the football season. Already have all my passes ready to go cman. Actually going down to NC in April for some saltwater and fresh water. My family down there looks at me weird when I tell them I need some fresh water too. Cant compare if you asked me. Give me my waders and leave me alone. OK..THE STORM....MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE. Looks like a heavy hit of snow for north jersey and easter pa right off the bat...only to turn to rain. We shall see.
Is there an age requirment to be on this site? I actually am not 10...and I do realize I have a problem. I never thought it to be a childish problem...but now that you say it that way.......
I'm waiting for April myself to hit Belmar, NJ for some saltwater action. Nice thing about having lived both on the East Coast and the Midwest, you get a taste for both styles of fishing. All the PartyBoats are in dock right now getting ready for their CG inspections. I think there's only one boat running Macks right now. Got fishin in the blood man. Can't shake it, dont wanna.. :grin:
:rofl2: I really cracked up on that one. Read your fishing post too. Its in the blood my friend. My buddies and me can be having dinner with the wives and it just comes out...."man..its getting close" We have made the decision to do a south trip in the middle of winter because its just way too long in between. Just a little 4 day thing down south. Ok..here is a great model run that animates. Hit the link..then look to the left and hit the animate button. It goes out to 100 hours. Around hour 30 you start to see the storm enter the screen. BLUE is snow...red? is ice...and green..rain. Darker the blue....heavier the snow. Good stuff. You might want to hit the minus sign when it starts up so you slow it down a bit. Its a pretty good model. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
Cool stuff Jaywayne,,,,,if I am seeing it correctly,,,,,,,our local weather guys still don't have it rite. I mean it looks like a mostly snow event,,,especially north and west of the city,',,,,,,,,,,but eventually looks like we all get rain at the end. Kids will be somewhat happy looks like an early dismissal from school,,,,,keep it coming Jwayne
thats where the tricky forecast comes into play. This thing does show a possible problem with icing. Without boring the crap out of you...cold air gets locked in at the lower levels and warm air rises over the top...meaning ice. I think that will be the major problem after a brief snowfall at the very beginning. Where that sets up could prove to be a major problem with significant sleet and freezing rain. At some point it does change to all rain in most parts...but most models are showing that happening at the very end. Late Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon look to be the worst. I will keep you updated.
