lol...and will be cursing me as we freeze our balls off the next 45 days...well...lets just see! lol.
Loved the write up and all the pictures. Good stuff jay. i am betting on all snow for me in the h.v. assuming 84 is the rain/snow line. agreed?
Jay and FJF ,,,a few questions,,,,,when do you think it begins ? After midnight ? Earlier ? Is there a lot of wind associated with this ? Should I get the generator ready with petro on the side ?
Thanks FJF...wife told me a few days ago I was being to technical and to tone it down...so Im trying. Its harder then in here when we had some great back and forth...but thanks. Yeah..you are really on the borderline and I think you will be all snow and maybe a few hours of sleet in the end. I think everyone gets sleet...even much farther north then you for an hour or two. Thats how these storms end..when the precip lightens up, the dynamic cooling from the storm stops..and then some sleet..could be wrong.
For you up there CBG..would think around 1am? close to it. Yes..for two reasons..it will get pretty windy and you are in a spot for icing. So why not be ready bud!
Thanks Jay,,,will you guys be online late during this mess/nowcasting? Jay your write up on the site was good today easy to understand,,,a question myself and people who read it probably have is when will it change over but that is probably something you cannot answer without nowcasting or looking at the current radar
Jay 4pm in bklyn tomorrow what's it look like? Wet or ice,,,the old man has dialysis,,,,,almost impossible to change appointments
Will be nowcasting from 10pm till around 2am and then back up at around 9am. Brooklyn at 4pm will be ok..but there could be some surprises. Changeover will be south to north...and a real tough call. Almost impossible but a guess would be north jersey around 8 to 10am? Your spot around the same? FJF 11am or noon if at all? Very hard call but will be much easier late tonite bud.
you didnt see my model for Super Bowl Sunday yesterday FJF? Look back yesterday..it would be recording breaking from Colorado to Maine. I have a model run up on the site from yesterday...will post it again tonite.
FJF...went out on a limb in your area...in fact..ready to bump it again. Im really bullish for your area and beginning to get more bullish for CBG spot. Really beginning to think you get close to 10..if not more. BROOK....also beginning to think you get over 8.
don't know how i missed that. that looks too huge to really happen. now checking the hourly at TWC they are saying snow starting early, mixing around 7am back to snow around 10am. makes no sense. what do you think jay?
Its possible FJF...especially the changeover and then back to snow. Remember we talked about the counterclockwise rotation of a storm..so when it gets close, the models are suggesting it will pull some warmer ocean air back into the equation. Where I might be wrong is I continually have been saying once it changes to sleet it will be the end of accumulations. I still believe that...but what the weather channel is saying is that once the storm pulls even with us and starts to pass us...counterclockwise rotation...it will begin to pull in colder air again. Sooooo..the big question for your area is that changeover. Does it happen..and when does it happen..because by 7am tomorrow, you could be looking at 4 or 5 inches already..and all you need is several more hours of snow to get to 8. I think your area will be getting close to 2 inches an hour at some point. But does that come during the changeover? Does it even changeover? I know im going on and on here but heres the one thing I have learned about quick moving storms..sometimes the speed of the storm just outraces the warm air..and the changeover come well after most of the damage has been done...and I THINK that will be the case with this storm Have seen it so many times.
Hey Jay I have friends on my face book page asking me whats going to happen, I tell them go to the your site and then in a nutshell give em the monarch notes of what you are saying,,,,but fiends down the jersey shore are asking me what to expect,so either type it here or put it on the site if not there already,,,,keep em coming
