Now the above model is the NAM model which is a short range american model. Here is the GFS..the longer range American model. You can see the difference..but the one thing that sticks out big time is the path of the secondary storm that drops snow from North Jersey into New England. You can see this storm has strengthened big time from its previous runs. Its worth keeping an eye on now. If you took that map verbatim, and go by people on our site that I can remember and sorry if I forget some..my brain is dead tonight...heres what you would have: CMAN: 1-3 Brook and me: 4-5 FJF: 5-6 CBG: 5-6 RPO and JStokes: 5-6 Jonnyd: 5-6 Drew and GG and FAZE ONE: Fine line but 3-6 GD: 1-2 JX: 3-5 WW85: 1-3 (Im on a roll here bud...all the way out to Ohio!..lol) Marshall...the grand winner so far: 6-8 Again, I know I missed some but you guys can easily see what you are getting...just testing my brain to see if I remember where everyone is. Lets see what tonights later models do.
lmao, good call CBG i will stay in my lane from now on and leave the forecasting to the expert. this would be exactly how it should be, back doored a white christmas and than a dusting turns to this to get those 2' of snow in a week. sneaky winter we are having
NO NO NO!! FJF...You were dead on..you did great..hey...I totally agreed with what you said and couldnt have said it better bud. Again, these are 2 model runs back to back bringing in higher amounts...the big question or questions is this. 2 Questions. 1. Both being American Models, did they pick up on something thats not really there. I mean, the players for a decent storm at least were always there or as we talked about, we wouldnt have kept following this..so are these 2 models picking up on the players better now that they are on land. or 2. If its the start of a trend, are we sitting here tomorrow night or Sunday morning saying FJF is now going to get 7 to 10....and up by Marshall 7-12. How much water can you get out of a sponge....depends if theres any water in it to start with. There is...but is this change a temporary miss fire by 2 American models or the start of something a bit bigger..as has been the case ALL WINTER. You were dead on bud...and keep thinking outside the box..you were dead on and did great.
Back in early winter when this late trend started CBG...you were given a very important job by me...very important. It was a single job. The job was when I forget...and give up...no matter what the maps were saying, when a storm was modeled more than 8 days out, to remind me about trends....lol. And reading the above post by you, you get an A+ buddy...A +. That is the post of the year...if we get the snows. Now..very important here...NOBODY is saying this is back on for over a foot of snow..nobody....but an interesting trend started late in the game here..48 hours before this storm and that is really cutting it close...lol. Nice job both CBG and FJF. I feel very safe taking my vacation in the summer.
And a snapshot of the Canadian Model. The dark blues are pretty heavy snows..if the picture continued, it rides up the coast giving Conn,RI,Mass.. a burst of heavy snows. Again, 3 models now but the question is temporary relapse or trend:
Well, that would certainly suck. I'm travelling to the Long Branch area tomorrow but I'm going early enough that I should avoid any issues.
thanks guys...see ya tomorrow.. Euro came closer but no cigar..but as george costanza once said...i think it moved.
yes...backed down a bit i think but just looked at 2 short term models. Looking at it right now..2 to 4 event? Let me check. FJF..checking Euro now.
In the old old days I would just be getting in the shower to go out later,,,,nowadays I am pooped and ready for zzzzzzzzzzzzz Back on topic,,,,,sounds like not Much happening,,,,maybe Jay is in the weather lab but from his last few posts more likely he is in bed,,,,,,,,,what's on the menus for Wednesday ?
Wednesday looks like it might be backed up to Thursday/Friday and it looks to have temp problems for here..perhaps not up by you and FJF. Borderline..but all models still have it in varying degrees. We shall see. Tomorrow nights storm is a baby it seems...1 to 3 maybe. The biggest problem its having instead of being at least double is the Appalachian mountains. Some storms when the come directly west to east which this one does, fall apart over the mountains as seems to be the case here. Sometimes they keep their umph and drop more so we will look at the radar and see.
Jay first off,,,hope u r feeling better buddy,,,,keep the updates coming and let us know about thursday,,,,ps tonite 1-3 or not even ?
