Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Brook...my man.

Right now, there is a 50/50 shot that either Chicago or Newark might have a bit of a problem. It really depends on whether or not this storm that comes down from the Great Lakes (weaker storm that would be a smaller problem for your Chicago part of the trip) and redevelops off the the midatlantic coast on Wednesday that would cause a problem for Newark.

The Chicago part is more likely...but perhaps at this point not enough for major delays. Wish I could give you more concrete info right now but I dont think the models will fully grasp this setup until Sunday night.

Chicago forecast for Wednesday...very cold is 100 percent:

Wednesday A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13.

link: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...=1&searchresult=Chicago, IL, USA#.Utohq9hOlkg

Newark forecast for Wednesday:
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 23.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 23.

Link: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...p=1&searchresult=Newark, NJ, USA#.Utoh_9hOlkg

As you can see, our local NWS is not buying into the storm that is modeled a bit too far off the coast but latest models are showing a real chance for something.

Lets see where we are in the next 24 to 48 hours and Im sure by Sunday night/Monday morning we will have a good idea bud.

 

Hey CBG.

Right now, the Tuesday storm is pushed back to Wednesday or Thursday and there are a lot of ifs my friend.

Like I was telling Brook, it looks like a chance but right now not even the NWS is buying this coming together. I think it has a real shot and most of my thinking goes by the trends of THIS winter.

Models have shown storms 10 to 14 days out only to lose the idea..or the location. Then around the 5 to 7 day mark, they begin to go back to the original setup. Has happened for every snow event we have had this year.

So, my guess is that either the models start to grasp it again by Sunday night or its not going to happen. Sunday night is the key I think.

Looking long term, saw some really interesting things to keep an eye on and a few things for Superbowl Sunday.

The models starting middle to end of next week are showing a string of 3 or 4 storms in a 7 to 10 day period. So things could get interesting.

For Superbowl Sunday, a few long range models were showing really cold weather with highs perhaps in the upper teens to low 20's.

With that said, looking at both the GFS American model and the Euro model long term...it shows a major change in the cold spell with temps that weekend perhaps getting into the 50's.

Just some things to track as we get closer to the Superbowl.

SO in a nutshell...small disturbance tonight brings us maybe an inch tomorrow morning.

Perhaps some snow showers for Sunday followed by very cold temps all week next week.

A storm perhaps midweek that right now is not solid with the models..but was and we look to see if it returns..showed signs tonight.

Then next weekend a possible storm....Tuesday following..around the 28th another storm..and perhaps the 30th also.

I DID IT AGAIN..I WENT TO QUOTE AND HIT THE EDIT BUTTON..

 

Just read the NWS write up and they have seen the latest model trends for middle end of next week:

THE OFFICIAL FCST IS DRY DURING THIS LATTER PERIOD...BUT THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW FCST A POTENTIAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MULTIPLE ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS BEYOND THE
FCST PERIOD.

Bold part is the interesting part. What they leave out is that the models did have this storm just 4 days ago...and now the latest GFS and Euro runs showed a light to moderate event..that could be even more if it trends back to what the models originally had.

 

A couple things to look at for the upcoming week from the National Weather Service:

Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 18.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 17.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 21.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 26.

First thing to notice is the temps..very cold week. Second thing to show is that they have no faith in any storm this week. Now this could be the case but still think we have a 50 50 shot for a storm Wednesday night/Thursday.

Again, by tomorrow night we will have a better idea.

 

tonight will check models to see if that Tuesday or Thursday storm pulls closer to us but just looked at the long range models again..and again..both the American model and the Euro model showing perhaps 50's for Superbowl Sunday. Way out there but after all the concern etc...that would be pretty funny. This cold wave breaks about 3 or 4 days before the Superbowl. Again..long range models are a bit more accurate with temps than storms but it is still a long way out.

 

now the long range shifted to a possible storm day before superbowl..lol...good stuff.

tuesday might get a couple..thursday might get a bit more right now. Will be on later tonight.

 

models finally coming into line with a possible 2 to 4 event for Tuesday night...more towards the shore and eastern L.I. perhaps..something to watch. Same for Thursday/Thursday night.

 

IM QUOTING MYSELF NOT TO BRAG...BUT remember how I mentioned models have the storm..lose the storm..find the storm? Well this forecast above was yesterday from the NWS and it didnt even have a snow flurry for Tuesday right? Even the NWS has not caught on to the fact that you have to at least put a chance of snow in there because the storm was still on the models..but way south of us.

WELL...THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED BIG TIME FOR TUESDAY. 6 Plus inches for many Tuesday and tuesday night.

Again..not bragging..just a reminder that when the models show a storm..then do not..you still have to track it. I tried quoting myself above but hit the edit button again..truly and idiot.

But you get the point. Model sees storm..model then says what storm? Models then say oh..that storm. Has happened with every snow event this winter.

Let me keep checking to see if the Euro says yes..snow storm on Tuesday Tuesday night.

Brook, right now I do not think this is enough to kill your plans for Wednesday.

 

Storm is now 2 storms from what Im seeing. First is Tuesday and then perhaps Thursday night? And then another 1 on Sunday.

Oh..remember the models long range had the temps in the 50s for superbowl sunday? Well this morning they showed a snow storm for the day before..and the latest models show a snow storm for Superbowl Sunday.

I have so much faith from now knowing the models were right 10 days out with the storm that will hit us on Tuesday that for Superbowl Sunday? By this Wednesday I will give you the models prediction and stick with it..lol.

 

looks like for anything major fjf..but you can still get 2 to 4.

Im surprised local guys calling for only a inch of snow CBG..that sounds nuts now considering the models overninght...let met check NWS.