It really depends Drew..first off is that storm totals..are through Thursday..because the back end snows will add to this. Again, this will not be the typical dump and run...but a long drawn out battle. I do believe when the final numbers are over a bit higher than that...but that might not help with school closings. What you need is all hell to break lose tonite..and dont count that out.
As the next few days an inverted trough or norlun trough is going to set up..you can google it because it would take 2 pages to explain..basically a rise in warm air from the center of the storm rising northwest off the center. Very important...because you wll be hearing hat word a lot over the next 2 days. Bottom line is every model that spits out precip totals has half and half..meaning NYC gets 4 inches from the coastal and 4 inches from the trough. Will explain more but thats whats going to setup thursday and friday in record numbers for some
Well hell..it sure is hell is getting real windy by me. Does that count? OK...the weather geeks are going crazy down south. What a bust!! weather guys suck!!! LOL...and then you have others rubbing salt in the wound saying...I have 13"!!! Pretty soon they are all going to break out their pencils and someones going to get hurt. See, thats why I would never commit to a blog. Who needs that...All I have to do is come on here and say guys...aint happening..and then run and hide the the NY Knick thread. Still think it will over perform in nj..and cman...keep us updated.
radar shows the precip trying to move north..but except for light stuff, do not expect any real action until tonite....which will mean less rain and more snow and more sticking once the sun goes down. Again, they are calling for 2-4 in my area of north jersey and by friday..i expect to at least double those numbers. Not your typical strong storm..there will be lapses. There will periods of sleet...heavy snow..wind...and the timing again is wait and see.
Great link here..watch the circle to the left dissappear and then reappear to the coast..a transfer of power. Wouldnt surprise me if CMAN gets a let up..and then it picks back up big time for a bit. Also you can see the struggle to get north..real fight..and there lies the key to timing and how much gets by. Great link:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl
and then there is one model I just saw that changes cman over to rain before it ends this afternoon....hmmm..hope not.
While many will receive more snow tomorrow night with back end snow...I thinks its easy to say right now that this will bust for many. Its just not able to get through the blocking. I looked at TWC and their prediction for new jersey, conn and mass and I just no longer can see that happening. Might be jumping the gun and that can change in another 6 hours but its just hits a wall. With that said, major concerns for the Jersey shore because the winds are serious..real serious. It has to be damaging some areas..it constant and eventually be whipped around with rain..and then late snow. Not a good situation for the coast...but inland? Much wind...but at some point you have to look at whats in front of you and say nope. Still think there will be heavy back end snow that will eventually lead to correct forecast numbers...but its misleading over a 48 hour period.
Its so windy in Manhattan that I couldn't get out the door of my gym, i thought that they'd locked it. had to use to my shoulder to get out.
4 pm here and not doing anything yet,,,,,,,,it is windy but no precip,,,,,,,,,,I hope this blocking stuff ends already and hopefully some snow falls,,and hopefully a lot,,,,BUT I just read what the house of weather guy has written and it started off promising but the last post or two has me bummed :sad: Cman I hope it is still doing things by you ,,,keep us posted
Its not that the numbers will not hit..they will up here..its just that the spread is so vast time wise..it will be nice to look at but not the downpour of snow..now thats me saying all of this without even looking at a radar..so lets hope Im wrong. Still think the most impressive snow will be tomorrow evening. Let me check..of course all my clients are beating me up today with my real job..fitting.
Watch as the precip comes off the ocean heading for all of us...and the dry air and blocking laughs at it...and it just disintegrates. Over time will that break down? Checking the profiles...but I could rush for 1000 with blocking like that. LINK:http://www.wunderground.com/radar/r...7&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0
Ok...heres the best way to show the problem..and this is good stuff. Here is a radar from accuweather..nice right? Looks like its starting to come down even in north jersey...wow...so many people are getting heavy rain and snow: LINK:http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar?play=1 But most of that isnt hitting the ground....here is the actual stuff hitting the ground: LINK: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/r...7&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 And there is the problem. Let me see what tonite brings.
Yeah M..and the winds will get worse tonite..you have a huge high pressure to the north...blocking..and of course a cranking storm to the south..and in between those two the winds will howl.
and Murrell and drew...this is for you: BROOKLYN, NY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 411 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013 ...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT... SOUTHERN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF NEW YORK...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...NYC METRO AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. * TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S. * TIMING...A WINTRY MIX EARLY TONIGHT CHANGES TO ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. MODERATE SNOW MAY FALL AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVELING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE HEAVY...WET SNOW...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...AND POWER LINES AS WELL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Thanks Jay!! I'm just so upset about this stupid storm, because almost all of the snow from the blizzard is gone, I was getting ready for spring, and now I have to clear off my front yard in hopes to avoid a flood in my basement...again....
Bust..bust bust. Really sorry guys...but if a guy like me that doesnt get paid for this cant get it right...I feel better that the pro's are going to get killed with this. Not so much in the metro area..but areas north and south of us..huge busts. Lets face it..the models were all over the place and nobody wanted to lock on to the few models that said what big snows? Now its going to snow..and many areas in north jersesy by friday will end up with 2-4 maybe 3-6. Murrell might end up with a bit more? CBG might end up with a bit more with the thursday stuff...but any expert that takes credit for snows over a 48 hour period is desperate...and I surely will not take credit for the numbers hitting over that period of time.
No problem M....Kind of hoping things turn sour too..lol..hey even if you get something..it will be gone by Saturday evening..great weekend ahead..sun and 50's
Believe it or not, we still got minimal snow cover on the grassy areas out here. Jay, there just wasn't enough cold air to feed this thing. Its all good though. I'm ready to get the fishing gear ready for the Spring spawning season. Stripers should start heading north in a few weeks too. Nice to get a storm this winter. Better luck next year! :beer:
