Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

sorry guys...late dinner with the wife then I couldnt get on...checking now.

 

Couple of weird things with the models...lets go backwards first. This storm is going to hang around for a while if the models are right for central NJ north. Seems to me that once the main storm goes through..hangs around with on and off snow until Friday? The lower hudson valley seems to get half of their snow Thursday/ Friday...yet the storm starts on Wednesday.

Mass is the jackpot right now..but many are close. This is from the Euro. The GFS went a bit south and the Euro went a bit north so they are locking in..late..but locking in. Let me check out the particulars now.

 

lol...this is a real tough one..although they all are this year. Here is what I mean:

Euro: 3-6 inches but it stalls the storm and throws snow back into the NYC metro area until Friday morning. Are the numbers low because of rain/snow mix issues? probably.

GFS: 6-12 depending on location. Again, stalls the storm of the coast of L.I. and has higher liquid numbers meaning that all will have some rain/snow issues until it turns to all snow after sundown WEDNESDAY night.

NAM: LOL...well..its the NAM. Sometimes its right..and sometime it spits out stupid numbers. 10-18 with NYC on west being the winners in our area.

The other models: JAP huge blizzard for our area. NOGAPS big snowstorm for our area. And the disagreement goes on and on.

So what do we do...and whats right and whats wrong. Lets first talk about agreement..and their aint much boys and girls.

The storm starts sometime Wednesday morning but all should be fine because it comes in like a lamb and goes out like a lion. Along with mixing issues most will have an ok time getting around...except perhaps CMAN who is south and again, we will use him to tell us what mixing issues he has having down there to help us up here.

When the sun goes down is when the storm really gets cranking and when all the question marks start. Most west of NYC will turn to snow and right now, I would go with MURRELL having the best chance to getting a lot of snow but we can narrow down a bit more tomorrow. Wednesday night is when the huge number line will come into agreement.

Then Thursday rolls around and many north of Central NJ might not be out of the woods. Almost all the models show the storm doing a stall..or a loop d loop and keeps it around until Friday morning.

Where does the rain snow line set up and How close to the coast will this storm actually come is the big question and anyone putting out numbers is soooo full of crap...but a gun to my head would say that north jersey gets 5-10 AT LEAST and NYC gets the same IF the transition to snow happens. CBG could get more because he will have less mixing issues.

Murell could get 8-14. CMAN is a really tough call because there is a point in the storm when it transitions from VA to the Jersey coast before it explodes again. Its very safe to say he gets 6 but thats a cop out. He could get much more.

Will have to wait until tomorrow to see if the models lock in better than tonite because even though they have better aligned, they are still WAY off from agreement.

 

One of the things that just has me baffled and trying like hell to stay conservative is that my local NWS for north jersey, NYC, Southern Conn etc doesnt even have a Winter storm watch up yet. Better yet...it doesnt even have a hazardous weather outlook for a storm thats less than 36 hours away. Nothing. It will in about 2 hours but a storm is less than 36 hours away and they are not even warning people about a possible heavy wind rain even worst case scenario.

It just tells me Im missing something and have to tell you...Im not. Not bragging at all...im an idiot compared to them but sometimes they are so worried about being too aggressive instead of telling people a real crappy storm is coming.

Ok..thats my rant and with that said Wednesday night and Thursday things will really go down hill and regardless of how much snow, its going to be real tough getting around and some will lose power..and thats being conservative. Lets see what the models do tomorrow morning.

 

and one last thing, those that live along the coast of NJ...are they telling people about major beach erosion and at least moderate flooding? This storm sits off the jersey coast for a good 24 hours and telling people on Tuesday for a Wednesday event isnt good.

You have about 2 or 3 major events a year and if your wrong, so be it. Areas from nj coast, L.I. Conn, RI, Mass are going to have incredibly strong winds and heavy precip for an extended period of time. No Sandy..not even close..but still something people should be concerned about.

Ok..rant over.

 

lol...and one more. Here is the forecast for beach haven, nj. No joke.

Tuesday Night A chance of rain, mainly after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 35. Windy, with a southeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Rain, mainly after 7am. High near 41. Very windy, with a northeast wind 32 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night Rain before 5am, then snow likely. Low around 35. Very windy, with a north wind 33 to 38 mph increasing to 39 to 44 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

What that basically is saying is that its a low tropical storm for over 36 hours. Thats a big big problem for the coast.

 

the friday thing is if the stall thing sets up...not sure about it...but several models show it..and most models show very slow exit. I wouldnt say moderate snow until friday...but lingering yes.

Here is something I have seen over the past 24 hours and really needs to be watched and can keep amounts down from phily to nyc.

The storm cuts through va. strong..and then transfers its energy to the coast. What happens is as it get close to philly...the precip begins to lighten..and the real storm takes over off the Jersey coast then moves north east and gets stronger. So areas from phil. to nyc could...COULD...get lesser amounts until you hit Conn when the storm rekicks in and dumps heavy snow again.

Something to watch that could keep totals down..incredibly...for CBG, brook, me and to a lesser extent CMAN...but i do believe cman will get his snow.

Now, Im not leaning this way because it really makes little sense but thats what the models show.

 

and they could be right CBG and they have no idea why they are right..they probably think because the storm stays further out to sea..and thats not the case.

Im getting a bit more positive but it still makes not much sense becasue I have never ever seen this before. As I mentioned..its the transfer of energy from one center to the other center that will screw NJ out of big snow storm. Its as if the storm falls apart then rebuilds and does that while waving to NJ passing by. Seriously, thats what the models show.

It has nothing to do with being to far east. Not the case at all. Incredible. Lets see if that plays out because right now, you have a band of heavy snow from VA to CMAN and then it cuts off to 3-6 from philly to NYC and then regroups to give MASS over a foot. Bizarre to say the least. We shall see if there are any changes.

 

EDIT: I had a post up here trashing a local met who has a blog and he was soooo wrong..but I took it down. Not into that crap. Im tired. lol.

He basically stated exactly what I said above...that the storm is too far east to give us heavy snow. Thats lazy and not the case.

It just reforms while passing us by. If it slows down, it will bomb out and give us much more snow...not because it came closer to us. Its plenty close enough.

 

I think we will have a good idea by later today but this storm screams of NOWCAST...seeing whats happening to your south hours before it come in.

Just so you see how people like myself cant wait for this winter to end..here is come stuff from very good bloggers:

First, like I mentioned, here is a guy that has it right. This has nothing to do with the storm being too far east:

even NAM is weaker for both of us than 00Z and not good to not have GFS and EURO on your side inside 30 hours... i think both of us end up in the area where the storm is reorganizing cutting down on snow totals but not all the action..

And of course the frustration with models all disagreeing:

Bring on the 60's i'm tired of this winter..Hopefully this is the last winter threat of the season..It's to the point i cant give my friends/family a detailed forecast 12-24 hrs from an event..0

Lol...heres is one thing IM 100 PERCENT positive about. Some people are going to get a lot more snow than was is projected and I have no real idea where the sets up until it starts to kick in. Anyone that says they know is lying through their teeth and gums.

 

Yeah cman believe it or not..that will tell alot for what comes north.

Murrell...Im no longer sure about that number but I wouldnt dare to guess. These models are truly all over the place and Im really hoping that by 1pm today there is a clearer image. I would say your area can really over perform..in fact many still can. Im just not buying this 2-4 for all of new jersey right now..it just doesnt add up.