Hey jack..is that a picture of the current setup? or down the road setup..because if it current..none of those things are players at all. Except the most northern feature which will play the part of a blocker.
And let me try to explain it a bit. Yep..you are correct..it swoops down to the Tennesse Valley and goes off the coast and north..north east to HOPEFULLY IF YOU WANT SNOW..just off the coast of MD..and then begins to put the brakes on in a big way. Now..there is a chance that the blocking you are talking about lessens...and the storm just continues to slowly head east...north east. If that happens..snowstorm for VA..southern MD. If it goes northeast snowstorm for northern VA...western MD...northern NJ...southern NY...Central and western Conn...and perhaps central MA. The reason you do not see an eastern NY...or LI or south jersey is rain..but all would get a huge storm.
and the latest trend with both the GFS and the Euro are both south. Heres the bottom line, we can talk about what the models are saying etc but the thing is until the models grab hard evidence..the players actually all enter the USA mainland, no models will have a good grasp other than to spit out major potential. I like that sat. pic though Jack..I need to do much better with my post pictures and will start to do so tonite. Nice stuff.
Wow cman I just looked back and missed you!...sorry bud. Yes..you are in the game. The problem with your location is when the storm really gets cranking...are you too far west? Thats what we will be looking at the next 72 hours. I do believe the snowblower will be used for you..but will it be used once? twice? 3 times? Im the kind of snowblower that does it 3 times for a major storm. Im going to start posting pics of the models in this thread starting tonite..just getting my image account up to date now..lol.
Ok..lets see how this is working out. Here is an image of the latest GFS..as you can see most of the heavy precip stays offshore...not buying this solution at all right now. Later tonite I will post the entire Euro breakdown.
oh..and thanks SJ...you gave me the incentive to stop being lazy and posting links..lets bring this damn thing to the next level!..lol
AND EVERY model loses the storm south..incredible. I still think this might be an adjustment and an area where models lose the storm. Well its not lost..its just south of our area..huge numbers..but south. Lets see what tomorrow brings.
Local local local non network channels now talking about a possible Wednesday storm,,,,,,local networks are now keeping " an eye on it " and I await the " house of weather guys " update !
lol..seems they are 24 hours behind CBG...Yesterday that would make sense..today..the word of the week is suppression. Yes..there is a storm..but all models now keep it south of us. With that said, the models will have their best data starting late tonite ..early tomorrow morning. Lets see what that brings....hello storm? or bye bye winter.
Me and Cman hate supressions,,,,,,,as I said I still have that loving feeling but I am losing that warm fuzzy feeling,,,,,help me get it back Jay give us some Snownews and get rid of that damn supression and get this thing to " trend " and " phase "or whatever it needs to do ! :lol:
Well...here you go..here is how close we are to getting buried..and I will tell you this..if this pans out, VA., DC and parts of MD are going to get friggin hammered...18-24 in some spots. Now, are the models done? I dont think so..not 4 days out. Want to see the Euro go north tonite in about a half hour.
For a minute there I thought we moved to California :lol:,,,,,,,,now Jay get on my shoulders and lead the chant -------,E U R O. Euro euro euro :beer:
Local guys says it stays south,,,,,,says he gives it a 30 percent shot of hitting Us,,,,what says the consistent House of weather guy and the Euro?:breakdance:
Uh oh,,,,models ran and no update from the Jayster,,,,,,I hope this means no news is good news or maybe Jay is out and about today ? Maybe he is getting all his ducks in a row and hopefully giving us ( me ) snow lovers good news about Wednesdays possible storm but I think I am losing that lovin feeling and to quote " Goose " I hate when she does that .
lol...Im here..and will be on night tonite because tonites runs are huge. I will say this..the latest GFS run puts CMAN in the picture. Real borderline. Models have trended about 50 miles north and CMAN needs another 25-50 to get big snows but right now he might get 3-6. Up north..CBG and Brook territory, still need about 100 miles. The models continue to show the storm come off the Virginia coast and then goes up to MD coast and just stalls. The suppression kicks in big time and the storm just stalls..then starts to head southeast? Yes...very rare. Is that accurate? Still have about 48 hours for any major changes...but I have to say..models have been very consistent with this so if this is the final picture, kudos. Will check later models now. And that stupid pic up there? I cant find the edit button when I try to fix it...will fix it this evening and add some stuff.
OK...At least we have another fun 48 hours at least. GFS model just came north..in a big way. Gives NYC a decent thump but now the problem for THEM is temps. The more north the storm comes temps come into play. Storm even hits boston..but its a fine line and cut off from west to east once you get north of Philly. Cman..you are still very much in the game..and by tomorrow...many others might be too. I did always believe this would come north..but I dont know if its going to come as north as I thought.
