Whether this hits or not..I really think this is it as far as snow...but the long term is showing slightly below temps until the middle of March..will keep an eye out. Now the Euro has a few really interesting things. The bad news for snow lover is that this storm looks to miss us up here by about 150 miles and in the past..I would say close but aint happening. Not just yet though. One of the few times Im not totally buying the models because what they are showing is an all out blizzard on the coast of VA and NC...really? In the March? Rarely do snow storms get cranking that far south. What its really saying is the storm will be suppressed by features to our north. I really do not think so. Going by past setups like this I believe the models will correct themselves by Friday/Saturday and winter is going to go out with a bang. How big of a bang is the question. Because no model shows a huge snow storm up this far...Im just going by the way this storm bombs out as it crosses the Mississippi on Monday. All the models show that...but disagree how far north. Anyone from NC/VA/MD/PA/NJ/CONN/RI/MASS/ME are in the game but the way I listed those states...chances get slimmer as you go from left to right. This thing has huge potential and Im not counting it out yet..not even close.
Well Jay I look forward to your updates on this but I am keeping my expectations real low until you say otherwise :beer: I have that warm feeling as in spring and not that warm fuzzy feeling as in SNOW,,,,,sure hope we get at least one more
Local guys Lonnie Quinn and Lee Goldberg both just said that the storm stays south of us on Wednesday,,,,,,,,,,do these hacks :lol: know something " house of weather guy " or are they way off on this one ? Let us know Jay
Well..if you go strictly by models...they are correct. But you cant just do that because you have to be able to say a model is wrong sometimes. Models...when they are reading wrong...are pretty easy to figure out what they are doing. Where they are trending. For instance, many of the local tv mets just use the GFS. Can you imagine that? You can tell by their forecasts..its strictly off the GFS. Its so unprofessional its incredible. Now Lee Goldberg from what I hear is pretty good and actually goes by all models. But heres the thing...the Euro and the GFS both brought the storm north after their broadcasts. In fact...the Euro just showed the storm coming up the coast and stalling just south of NYC and dumping heavy snow and rain for the city and east...and heavy snow and sleet for the near suburbs...and an all out snow storm north of I 80. So for them to just throw out its going to be south..instead of saying right now the models show south..but their are indications it could come north and be a huge storm is just not good on their part. Still sticking with this thing being something to really watch...and the models seem to agree with that tonite. That can change tomorrow but if the models stay the same tomorrow...Mr. Goldberg and Mr. Quinn will be singing a different tune tomorrow night.
and I wouldnt keep expectations low CBG. Here is how I would look at this...right now the Euro..which is a great model...just showed over 2 inches of qpf..liquid. Now the ole multiply that by 10 puts down over 20 inches of snow. NOW..is that accurate? Probably not this far out. But the Euro showed Sandy a week out doing what it did and nobody believed a week out that would happen. The Euro showed close to a foot of snow with that one storm and showed parts of Conn getting over 2 feet and guess what.... My point is, right now? This has a decent shot of dumping over a foot of snow at least for someone...and damn it CBG...Why not us! lol. Keep the faith.
Thanks Jay,,,,I have now come in off the ledge,,,.,I do not have that fuzzy feeling just yet,,but I could easily get it back :beer: I will look forward to the updates and I know as it gets closer to Wednesday that you will get more confident as to what is actually going to happen,,,unless this phasing stuff comes into play again :lol: That said I always have the faith just not that fuzzy feeling,,,,,,lol Stay on it Jay ,,,,we here value your opinion much more than the local wether guys,,,,much more !
All the models have come to some agreement that there will be a big storm and there will be a snowstorm for some. Only problem is that there will be a rain snow line..and a sharp cutoff north on who gets nothing but that seems not to be a worry for interior north jersey. Right now..and I would feel a hell of a lot more comortable talking about this storm if it was Sunday..but right now it looks to be a very heavy wet snow...close to freezing temps so not a real powdery snow. Will give more details tonite on who CAN get what.
Yep Brook..in fact if the GFS model that just came out is correct..we are looking at Wednesday...Thursday...Friday....it just goes off the coast of Maryland and stalls for 12 hours. Reminds me of the blizzard of 96. That run by the gfs was historical...would be one of the great snow storms of all time. And the problem with that is its a model run...1 run...and to be used to compare with other runs. My only concern...and if a storm like that happened it would be historical..is that the GFS and the Euro have shown back to back runs where the storm hits the coast and just spins and stalls..and dumps over 2 feet of snow to many. Doubt that will continue but I find it strange..very strange there is that much agreement and I would now put up a red flag that at the minimum...a decent snow storm will hit many.
and another thing..I mentioned a few days ago that rain would not be a problem because of the southern route this is taking. Thats off the table. This is coming north..and a rain snow line will set up with one side getting a blizzard..and the other getting major flooding. One thing I hope does not happen is this major stalling thing off the nj coast..if that were to happen...major beach erosion...major problems to an area that does not need that now
jil..check out the latest CMC model...this would be one for the record books..and here is the thing..and Im trying to down play a bit...the CMC ALSO SHOWS THIS STALL THING. That is very very unsual for 3 major models to show a storm come out of the Tennesse Valley and hit the coast..go up the coast to around MD and then just sit there and stall..sits and stalls. And for the record..the CMC puts out close to 20-30" for many...mjch colder run for this model so many are snow. I have to tell you..this storm has my attention more than any other snowstorm in years. COULD BE A BUST..COULD...But it really has my attention because of the crawling movement..very slow mover. Those are the historical storms. Again..blizzard of 96 comes to mind...sat off the Jersey coast and just spun itself to death..never moved..just spun out and died. NOT HYPING..but this should be an interesting 5 days..and then..Im out of here! Spring baby.
yeah i am gonna get into model mode this weekend. whats the lunar phase. didn't we just finish a full moon? u r correct the last thing the coast needs is a spinner just sitting around doing her thing.
Yeah..at half moon for this storm. Latest Euro trended a bit south..still think its going to be north. Interested to see where the models are by Sunday morning...then its game on Jil! And this far out even the NWS issued this statement...unusual this far out: THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EAST COAST STORM WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STORM COULD BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GENERATE THIS POTENTIAL STORM IS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. AT THAT TIME...DETAILS OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS WILL START TO COME INTO FOCUS. WHILE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS STORM, ANY ATTEMPT TO QUANTIFY IT IS WAY TOO EARLY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... link:http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...al_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook
So, I'm trying to understand all of this. It seems to me that there may or may not be a huge storm in the middle of next week; and, if it does, it will likely affect those further south moreso than north. I went to weather-dot-guv and I see this satellite shot right up there on the main page, a copy of which is below. And what I'm taking from this discussion is a concern that This Thing Here will swoop over through the Tennessee Valley, through Virginia, Delaware and so forth, and may hover Right About Here. Or may not. Because the thing is taking its sweet time developing and we just don't know yet. Am I understanding all of this correctly?
