Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

And tell your son the goal is no school next Wednesday. Too bad the real big storm might be on a Friday..but hey...beggars cant be choosers.

 

Here is a good link for North Jersey, NYC, L.I.

Now outside the circle you see nothing. This is a local radar for the above sections. So if it looks like nothing outside the circle it probably isnt when a storm is coming.

Looking at this, sections of North Jersey are beginning to see snow/sleet. That will really fill in during the next 2 hours.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/r...7&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

If Im looking at that correctly...you should either have something starting CBG or about to start any second.

 

I want to live there..badly..very very badly. Problem is that I have two boys. One about to enter college year after...and one about 4 years away from college.

Oh...and I have a wife.

The mention of my name would be a sin in my circles...people would look back on my days in North Jersey and say things like " He was a pretty good guy but wow..."

My immediate family would probably still love me...barely...my kids would see psychiatrists until they allowed me back in their home the Christmas of 2027....tension filled to say the least.

With that said...is it worth it? I want an Island badly.

Pinched...ok..back to the storms.

Yes CBG not a bad job on this one. I even called it for this storm 2 weeks ago. I will take the congrats...but this was a baby of a storm.

Continue to follow next weeks pattern and the EURO did not have either storm..or didnt have a huge storm. Light storm Tuesday..and then Friday.

Will continue to monitor all.

 

Now I posted your local NWS last night right? They were WAY off then. Good for you. Lets see what happens next week.

 

cancelled might be a tough call...will know more by tomorrow.

Something just caught my eye....a storm that will hit the south and was supposed to head straight out to see just showed a big north trend on the EURO model.

Asbury Park gets 4....NYC maybe a couple...and as you head west the number drops...regardless...many will see flakes fly tonite with something that wasnt even predicted other than very south Jersey.

EDIT: JUST REALIZED I DIDNT PUT DATE TO THIS SURPRISE..BUT ITS TONITE!! NOT MUCH...BUT WASNT CALLED BY ANY NEWS STORIES I SAW. We shall see if we get anything tonite.

 

Well...I cant really put my arms around what Woody is doing or thinking..so lets talk weather..its much easier to predict.

The Tuesday event..if we can just thread the needle a bit...has GREAT potential. It also has major bust potential. But those in charge are seeing such great potential that this has been ordered by the NCEP.

Folks, NCEP: "......THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTICFRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA..."

In a nutshell..and I have seen this happen in the past, a brutal...and I mean brutal cold front is coming in during the evening Sunday...followed by a reinforcing cold front Monday night.

The front that comes through Monday night will POSSIBLY..merge with a system to the south and bring us crazy weather. What type of weather?

1. A major cold front with highs in the low 20's and lows in the single digits Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday...wind chills below zero at night. THATS A GUARANTEE

2. The big question mark..does it also develop a noreaster along the front that rides up the coast and gives us snow along with very strong winds and rapidly falling temps? THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE

A big question mark that has the geeks in charge of the Prediction Center concerned enough to send planes to check data over the pacific. Those new updates will be infused into our models by tomorrow noon time. Once that happens you will either here nothing...other than very cold temps on the way..or hear about a potential noreaster.

And of course you will hear it here first!

Oh..and then the fun could really begin with a major storm next Friday.

 

Ok...when I start posting links to models showing future...I officially am buying into it.

Here is what we have. The Tuesday storm is A HUGE question mark. I just think it will be tough to have everything come together. From what I can see..and I hate being pessimistic, is that when a huge cold front is coming through, its very difficult to get a storm to materialize and then carry along the front.

So from what I can see for Tuesday is very very cold air comes through with on and off and at times heavy snow SHOWERS....BUT...

Im waiting for 1am today to buy into the Friday storm because this has special written all over it. Here is a future link:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_186_precip_p24.gif

Classic noreaster for Friday/ Saturday.

Now Im not completely ruling out the Tuesday storm and there are many on the forums that think it could happen..just not buying it. Many times before when arctic blasts come through, the models see more that whats really there..and thats a ton of cold air.

BUT..BUT...I will be totally on board if the Euro shows the same storm the GFS...the JMA...the NOGAPS have just shown...for FRIDAY...and we are now 7 days away so we are in the middle range..and I love the middle range.

At 1am tonite we will officially be tracking the first storm since Sandy if...IF the Euro shows the same storm. Will post as soon as it comes out...54 minutes from now.

EDIT:
This from a very popular forum who is buying into the very possible Tuesday storm...Im saying I dont think so...but Friday is a yes...here is what he says:

Monday Night into Tuesday Potential
The National Center for Environmental Prediction (the United States organization that runs the weather models for the United States) apparently also sees the potential, and the key word here is potential, for a very significant Nor'easter to develop on Monday night into Tuesday. So much so that they just ordered special National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reconnaissance aircraft to go out into the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii to gather data from the system that is projected to reach our area at that time, which has the potential to stir up a very strong Nor'easter, depending mainly upon it's actual strength

 

Euro came out now...showing a real near miss for Tuesday..and just starting to form the Friday storm.

By Sunday night everything should be nailed down for at least a go or not..will update tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.

EDIT:
Its official...the Euro has the storm for Friday. So for the first time since Sandy...the Euro,GFS,NOGAPS,JMA and several other models all agree that there will be a storm for next Thursday night...all day Friday...Friday night.

Big thing to follow is the track. Does it track west/north of us..or south/east of us. Of course we are looking for south/east of us for colder temps.

This has the potential to dump over a foot of snow for many. The first storm since Sandy that most models all agree on more than 7 days out. Lets see what happens.

The Monday night/Tuesday storm continues to look more like many Snow showers not snow storm..regardless, this shower/storm will usher in the coldest temps for this area in the past 3 to 4 years.