Has JD really had any success with Free Agency with Jets? Off hand none really come to mind.

I think he's been "decent" in FA up until this year. That is, he tried to fill holes with talent and not overpay, and not saddle the team with big contracts he couldn't get out, and that seems to have worked. But I said that this FA and Draft were/are pivotal to whether he's on the hot seat or not. I wouldn't expect him to be fired if they don't do better than 5 wins this year, but he should definitely be put on notice for 2023.

 

If Douglas had taken this job in 2013 (when the roster was also depleted, so it's a fair comparison) and put up these results, Jets fans would have run him out of town on a rail. It's sad that the Jets have been so bad for so long that a three year run of 11-39 (his record if we go 5-12 this year) is now somehow okay.

 

The difference is that people finally realized that a true tear down and rebuild was required. Back in 2013 most people thought the Jets were a pretty good team - it had only been 2 years since back to back AFC games - so the expectations were way different.

 

If you look around the NFL at how long it takes teams to rebuild, the view in 2013 was more accurate than the one today.

 

If you keep acquiring good players via the draft you trend upwards. At some point you get to the place where acquiring a few good free agents will make a difference and then you do that to get over the top.

The Jets keep skipping the first part and going overboard on the second part.

That's why we stink.

Because the Jets drafting has been so bad for so long we've all come to the conclusion that the draft is a random process that usually fails.

That's just because we've been so bad at drafting for so long.

 

Last year's draft was a good one by anybody's standards. This year's will reveal a lot.

 

Exactly, and why would he spend big money bringing in FAs when he knew the roster needed to be torn down and rebuilt, and that that would be done primarily through the draft?

 

You obviously don't understand how the best GMs do things. Rarely do they do "high profile signings." They look to build through the draft primarily and supplement with FA and trades. It's fans that look for and want the high profile signings, and that's because they don't understand the right way to build a team.

Recently a couple of teams like the Rams have had success doing that and then going all in signing FAs and trading draft picks to get the last pieces they thought they needed. It worked for the Rams. We'll see if JD eventually takes that approach, of if he sticks to building through the draft.

 

Awesome post! Thanks!

 

If your goal is to have "success" with FA signings, then you need to pinch yourself and wake up from that dream.

Success comes from the draft. Free Agency is where you get backups and fill holes with hopefully not terrible players to minimize the pain while you go through enough drafts to build the team you want. You can spend big on one or two big-time Free Agents who can be difference-makers in a very limited number of positions, and you hope like heck that they don't get injured. But generally, Free Agents take up space while your draft picks are busy making plays (maybe along side the one or two big-time Free Agents).

When we look at the starting lineup at the beginning of the 2021 season (after we lost Becton), were there any current stars whom the Jets drafted before 2021? I don't remember any, but maybe I'm missing someone. If you can't identify any stars in your starting lineup whom you drafted in prior years, that's a recipe for a whole lot of pain. Nothing good is going to happen until you get to the point where you can point to a decent number of strong starters from your prior drafts.

The good news is that, in 2022, we have five players from prior Jets' drafts that could and should be strong starters. Wilson is a work in progress, but if he takes even a moderate step up from his form at the end of the season (eg., the Bucs game), there's good reason to hope. Moore, Carter, and AVT are already strong starters. Becton was certainly a star in 2020, and if he's working hard this offseason, there's reason to hope for another strong starter there. But whether it's 3 or 5 strong starters from prior drafts, that's a huge step up from where we were when Becton went down last year (0 strong starters from prior drafts). And if JD can pull 3 or 4 future stars from the 4 top-38 draft picks he has this year, that's a very solid core for the future.

As for Free Agents over the last two years, take Lawson/C. Davis/CJ Mosely/G. Fant/Tomlinson/Reed/Uzomah/Conklin, and if even half of those guys can stay healthy, that group should have a sizeable impact this year.

I'd be happy with 7-8 wins this season. But if the Jets 2022 draft is as strong as it should be, playoffs in 2023 is a very reasonable goal.

 

Wait, we did have one solid 2021 starter from prior drafts -- Q. Williams. So we had one.

 

No, it isn't the truth. That's just your slant or perspective on what the truth is, and you're wrong imo.

LOL I love how you speak like you're Woody Johnson saying that if he "doesn't hit this draft FA, he is out." I seriously doubt that Woody Johnson thinks that way, nor should he. IMO it would be mind-numbingly stupid to fire JD unless Zach busts and every draft pick this season is a bust. Even then, his trading, his handling of the cap, and the way he handled FA this season is topflight, even if you are unable to see it.

I'm certain that no one wants to turn things around and start winning more than JD. Barring some major catastrophe, this team will win more than 4 games this season. I'm not worried about that in the least. With a year's experience in the schemes, players back from injuries, the talent JD added last year, the talent he added in FA, and will add in the draft, I am confident that this team will win at least 7 games and possibly as many as 9 or 10, unless all our WRs go down with injuries again, or worse.

 

I disagree. If we go 2-15, it won't be because JD didn't bring in good talent. It will be because Saleh and Ulbrich, and maybe MLF don't know what they're doing, or we lost all of our QBs and are having to play someone off another team's PS or have to bring Vinny Testaverde out of retirement.

 

If a 2-15 record, which would make Douglas's record 7-43, isn't enough for you to want him fired (recall Kotite was 4-28), is there anything that could make you want him fired?