I appreciate the work that went into this post, and agree several conclusions appear warranted. However there is one aspect of it that I wish to point out that may be problematic regarding the implications of how to go forward, with perhaps better results. The deduction made from Smith's poor performance in shorter drops and less time is that Marty's emphasis on such quicker releases was what led to them occuring more often, which might be true. But you also said they did so because they were "afraid to put the ball in his hands." Not sure I follow that one. If a Qb rushes his timing and passes, that would seem to be a recipe for more turnovers, not less. (Perhaps there were other reasons that might have been at work in MM asking Smith to take short drops.) More concerning still on a going forward basis is the larger point, that if true that making quicker throws was what was asked of him, then WHY did htat lead to such poor performance? It's not like they were asking him to do things other NFL Qb's do not and cannot do. Otherwise stated if your OC thinks that limiting your game to what you come out of college being comfortable with is something you can only try to change up by ending up the worst Qb in the league at what you do trying to comply with their suggestions, then two things are clear. One is the answer is not to only do what you are comfortable with. That ends up being far too limiting in terms of overall performance. The second is that you are demonstrating a relative inablity to be flexible in altering your game, in learning how to better peform. I also think we have not necessarily isolated the variable when we see better performances on such metrics as outside passes from seven step drops, among others. My own obeservation is that most defenses tend to play Smith up, load the box, placing less emphasis on the outside. Smith also tends to get sacked more, obviously, the logner he holds the ball. If he can avoid the sack and find an open receiver outside, that might be as much a function of the alignment of the D he is facing and the pass protection he is getting as it is a matter of "playing to his strength". Finally you have to wonder if the reason "playing out of his zone" is such a problem is not so much a matter of what is asked of him compared to his natural ablilities. Perhaps he presses, gets nervous, and THAT is what leads to poor performances. Imo that fits wiht other shortcomings of his game. But I would say my main point is it is far from clear that the best way forward with Smith is to tell him to forget about short drops and quick releases.
great post. My question for you, as I appreciate your knowledge & opinion here is this: is it possible the discrepancy between his failures when releasing the ball quickly vs. more success when taking his time have more to do with personnel than Geno Smith? or likely a combination of both, but possibly a big factor coming from personnel? basically what I am saying is that is it possible the numbers come out like that because he was playing with receivers that couldn't get open in </ = 2 seconds? If you are throwing it to guys who aren't open then your stats aren't going to look good. Conversely... I don't think its a stretch at all to say that receivers are more likely to be open the longer they have to run their routes... also have to factor in when he holds it and then takes off to run and throws it. Those instances cause LBs and Safeties to drift towards him making the receiver come open and would occur past 2 seconds... the reason I question the personnel aspect is because he certainly doesn't look comfortable back there in the pocket and is pretty bad fundamentally in 5-7 step drops, suggesting to me that the numbers don't reflect very well what we see on the field.
Here I will agree with BN, and I think it tracks part of what I was saying about isolating the variable. You can't just say your passing attack will involve a near constant amount of seven step drops and holds longer than 2.5 seconds, since having the OL hold up consistently on such basis is an issue. Defensive alignments also go into this.
His game has always been deep throws...thats an aspect of the game that he is good at. Play to that and the short game opens. Just as you stated, when he starts turning the ball over they make him a short rhythm passer, and it doesnt take numbers to see that isnt his strength. You can see that in the game. But I believe teams just stacked the box against the jets because they werent afraid of the deep throw. Aaron Rodgers is also a deep thrower. He uses that to open a short game. We should see an improvement this season. Don't forget Brees didnt exactly light it up his first few years....not calling Smith Brees either.
I didn't read the article, but did it mention that Geno was statistically the worst starting QB in the league both years he's been in the league?
I agree that Geno Smith cannot be miraculously fixed by eliminating short drops and quick releases from the gameplan. My post was more of an indictment of him than one of the coaching staff. Short passing is an integral part of the NFL passing attack. If repeatedly throwing the ball deep down the field was consistently effective, every team would be doing it because it would obviously yield the most efficient gains. However, outside of maybe Arizona with Bruce Arians, every team spends the course of the game drawing the defense up with short throws and runs, then takes a couple shots as a complement to this gameplan. Brady and Manning are widely regarded as 2 of the best QBs of this generation and they are perpetually in the bottom of the league in air yards traveled per passing attempt. The fact that Geno is so inept at exploiting this area of the field is very troubling to me. I think another good way to assess his struggles making quick decisions is through his lack of production in the red zone. In his rookie season he converted touchdowns on 50% of trips inside the 20 (27th in the league) and last season did so on only 36.17% (worst in the league). When you get down near the goal line, every pass is a short pass, the windows are much more cluttered and you're afforded less time to throw. It also takes good anticipation in order to score touchdowns in the red zone, which I also think he's lacked so far (though he was much more anticipatory in the last 4 games of 2014 than I've ever seen him). Getting 7 points instead of 3 in the red zone is the difference between winning and losing games - I can count at least 4 games where red zone inefficiency might have changed the outcome in the past Jets' season - and unless Geno improves on his quick decision making it could be the difference between being a starter or a backup. The fact that he regressed dramatically from his rookie year in this area is especially concerning. I think your suggestion that he panics, or "gets nervous" is dead on. I think it's evident that he has a very hard time feeling the rush, and this causes him to get rid of the ball before he needs to and before he identifies underlying coverages. In fact, this might contribute to his horrible numbers when throwing the ball in the 2-3 second range. I've seen a lot of plays where he has more time to throw than he thinks he does but forces a ball to avoid a sack anyway. As far as your first point of "there may have been other reasons for MM asking Smith to take short drops": I maintain that the purpose of this was to reduce the amount of mistakes he made. While I agree that forcing a quarterback to throw more quickly would 'be a recipe for more turnovers', I think it was also a way to circumvent his struggles with pass protection. As I mentioned, Geno has problems with feeling a rush, especially more so in his rookie season. If he was allowed to take a deep drop to pass, it would increase the chance that he would take a blindside sack for high yardage or even fumble. He was also the most blitzed quarterback in the entire league in his rookie year at 45% of dropbacks (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/05/qbs-in-focus-pressure-and-the-blitz/) so Marty undoubtedly used that fact, paired with Geno's struggles in feeling the rush, to determine that it would be wiser to get the ball out his hands quickly. It's entirely possible that his poor quick decision making is the result of being a young player with little NFL experience, but if he doesn't adapt quickly he could be out of shots before he ever figures it out. Some guys just don't have the instincts/reactions for the position.
When you're talking about stats like that, there are always going to be tons of variables that factor in, and you have to remember that correlation doesn't imply causation. Personnel is definitely one factor that can heavily skew data like that. If Geno had Gronkowski, who can find his own way to overpower defenders and gain separation quickly in the 5-10 yard range, I'm sure he would be dramatically better at quick passes. I think a point that I haven't mentioned yet that might also explain some of the variation between success on short drops and deep drops is his inexperience under center. We all know the narrative that he almost exclusively worked form the shotgun in college. However, the footwork isn't really my concern; it hasn't been perfect for him (especially when overthrowing hot receivers against a blitz) but it shouldn't be too abnormal to drop back to pass. The concern I have is that he has to read the defense while dropping back, which is an enormous change. NFL defenses are hard enough to decipher on the fly, but it becomes far more difficult when you have to do it while on the move, receding from under center, while executing footwork that isn't committed to muscle memory yet. This is why I think he's been more successful with deeper drops. It gives him more time to read and react, and he also has time to settle down once he gets to the top of the drop. Typically, if you're taking a 3 step drop you don't get a "hitch" step because the goal is to get the ball out quickly, so your footwork has to be spot on. On 7 step drops, though, it's more frequent that the design is for you to get a gather step before throwing, which I think also might've helped him. When a quarterback has struggled as much as Geno has, it's impossible to isolate one variable as the sole cause of the problems which would turn everything around if fixed. That wasn't the goal of my post. However, there are many contributing factors and I think I was able to locate some of them. The personnel he played with has a role in these stats, as does your point of scrambling to throw. But ultimately I think quick decision making and reactions have been his main problem for the first 2 years of his career.
its all a matter of time with Smith, literally. he needs time to find receivers, he needs his receivers open, and he needs time to get the ball out even after he's made his decision because he doesn't have the quickest of releases. its not a comforting thought, to have a QB that needs the sun and the moon to operate efficiently. the good ones know how to adapt or have so much talent at their disposal that they MAKE opportunities for themselves. Though he's definitely gotten more used to the speed of the pro's these limitations likely mean he'll never be a franchise QB. luckily for us (and especially Smith) theres a decent chance that an optimal set of circumstances could be made available by this offense as it stands… o-line possibly not withstanding. We've got 3 excellent route runners and a major deep threat who are all perfect to spread defenses out. I'm actually very confident in this offenses weapons, their getting separation shouldn't be a problem. the questions with this O are wether or not Smith can consistently find his open targets, wether or not he'll have the time to read defenses at a speed that works for both him AND the offense at large, and wether or not we have enough to adapt once opponents figure out what we're doing to make Smith work for us.
First of all I understand your points and am in general agreement with all of them. To be clear this post and your subsequent answer to BN add that you are not sure exactly why we see these problems, or to be even more clear what the if you will proportional mix of factors is from what are the likely causes (with emphasis on the multiple). For example I recall discussions back during the regular season, even some from last off season, discussing the impact of his lack of experience under center as a factor. No doubt that affects both his ability to read the D as well as his comfort with pass protection (where he is in the pocket relative to his blockers, where he might best go to avoid the rush) - but which factors are more signficant than others? That is hard to answer since with so many variables it is nearly impossible to isolate each relative to others. Back to last year and the WHY Marty appeared to be encouraging the quick pass, and despite what I just said about isolating variables, it makes complete sense that Marty did that in order to address Smith's problems with feeling and understanding his pass protection. Like you said there were too many times when he looked like he could not make good use of holding the ball longer - if he's going to throw it away or take a sack, better to keep him on a rhythm of short timings, and short passes. But, as you also noted, this came at a cost since the production was not there. As for the nervousness, I would like to add it is not merely some psychological factor of something like performance anxiety. I think given Smith's problems, the whole range of them, it would be very surprising if he did not get nervous back there. In other words I dont think his nervousness is separate from his problems, and can be isolated from them and seen as a cause of the results that follow. The actual condition or situation is more dynamic, with the nervousness TIED IN TO the problems he is having, the problems causing and reinforcing his nervousness, which then exacerbates his performance problems. If that is accurate then, unfortunately, it is not merely a matter of having him calm down. I am glad you brought up the issue of red zone performance as well, since one can at leat try and make a plausible argument that between the twenties, or more accurately until he gets to the oppnent's 25, he is almost an acceptable Qb. But then for all the reasons you mention he breaks down and the Jets end up either attempting a fiedl goal or turning the ball over. In the end I just see too many problems to overcome, too many problems that are tied into each other, cannot even begin to be separated out and dealt with individually.
It's not about time - It's about making quick reads and getting the ball out of his hands on time. Most of Geno's mistakes have come when he holds onto the ball for too long and tries to make a big play. With more offensive weapons, the hope is that we will be able to stretch the D and create mismatches to exploit off the line of scrimmage. With a better D, the hope is that he will be less inclined to hold onto the ball, and accept that punting is better than a TO. Brooks did a really good job of highlighting Geno's strengths and weaknesses, and I think his statements comparing him to Hasselback were encouraging. I think we might finally have a coordinator who will put our QB in a place to succeed rather than jamming him into a system where he is asked to do things he is not comfortable doing. In Geno, I see a young QB from a spread system who has made a lot of boneheaded mistakes but has also shown flashes of being really good. This is his make or break chance, as we won't extend him if he doesn't significantly step up his game. Above all else, I really want Geno to succeed, because that will be good for the team. If he fails, we are just that much further away from success.
while i agree with your assessment of the teams quick passing game, i am not prepared to write this off as an indictment of geno during rex's tenure, every qb that has played has had issues in the quick passing game ... rex repeatedly instructed his OCs to make the offense extremely risk averse. in turn, teams would sit on every short attempt whether it was by sanchez, mcelory, geno, or vick. imo, that made the offense just as risky by virtue of predictability i dont have the stats on it, but im pretty sure were near the top of the league in percentage of INTs returned for TDs since rex arrived. thats a direct result of teams sitting on the quick passing game
I don't bother reading articles like this anymore. I stopped reading when he compared Geno to Hasselbeck holy cr@p. Enough talk. SHOW ME ON THE FIELD IF Fitzpatrick doesn't take the job away first..
So here is the question, who would you rather have right now? Sanchez or Geno? I would take Tebow over both of them. That's how bad they are. I hope Bryce Petty breaks the cycle in a few years down the road because we have only had Namath, O'Brien, Testaverde, and Pennington in the last 40+ years. We are due a good QB, damn it!!!!
Maybe because, last I checked, football games are determined by more than just 1 player. There are 11 guys on offense on the field at a time, and 11 on defense. Football is a team sport, not even the great QB's can win without help.
he was terrible on the road and pretty decent at home his rookie year. because of that i had hoped it was just rookie road struggles and that with a year under his belt and some experience he wouldnt struggle as much on the road... but then last year it was the opposite, sucked at home but was good on the road and continued to throw the ball away. im just hoping he can be below average and not terrible and not turn it over a ton. if he does that we can win some games
