Geno not ready...

Well, I was hoping for Garrard, Mcelroy and then Smith. Now I figure, what the hell, we are gonna suck regardless. Play the rookie, he can't be worse then Tannenhill and now this year the kid will be better. Not another year of Rex and Sanchez

 

Not another year should be our motto

 

All I'm going to say is, if you're going to have him sit and learn this new west coast play book of MM then you better not just fire him next season so our rookie qb has to learn A whole new play book.

 

It's possible the Jets will get a bad injury run and collapse this season. That's probably the only scenario in which Rex and Marty M are not back for 2014. I just don't see another one year experiment at OC, which is what firing Rex would likely do. We already had the experience of keeping the OC on when the HC was fired and that didn't resolve anything for us. It was that OC that took the best two Jets teams of the last decade and capped them.

 

Your points on the turnovers are fair, but....in. 2011 he was number two in the NFL in red zone efficiency, and put up 32 scores.

He is a good QB. The problem is you would expect a guy taken 5 over alll to be at least a very good QB.

Its ironic, that with. Real OC, Tom Moore overseeing the Red Zone offense, sanchez looked like a top 5 player. Yet under schitty and sparano he sucked?


And the Red Zone is an advantage for the defense.

 

Here me out Bway.

Look at the differnce in Sanchez, 2011...where Moore was coaching as opposed to Schitty.

The Jests are better than Tampon Bay. Odds are they win the opener.

New offense no film, thursday night game, NE, second game with china doll Amendola not Welker. Good chance to steal one.

Buffalo.


There is a 75% chance they go 3-0. 85% 2-1.



Rex and tattoo (my suggestion for Nachos new nickname) are likely to cement a long term thing.

Lets face it north of 8 wins...its status quo in 2014.

 

Optimism is a good thing. I think they have a real shot at 2-1 after 3 and they're going to need it given the schedule through 9. I think beating the Patriots in Gillette is a pipe dream. It might happen but I doubt it.

 

The fact that ypu really thought Garrard would see the field is astonishing.

Taking GMac as a relaible second....is mind boggling.

You arent going to like this, but heres how it shakes out.

Sanchez. Plays well under MM. The Jets have a season like their first under Mangini. Which means...they perform to their capacity but well ahead of perception.

( penny gets hurt, jets go 4-12, mangini inherits a 10 win team, gets labeled a genious)

Jets win more than 8, and its unlikely Smith gets on the field before his contract year...unless its mop up duty...Or injury...but Rex isnt a douche like Harbaugh, Rex is old school...if Sanchez got injured, Smith would need to put up 40 a game to keep Sanchez from returning.

 

The Pats game, rex knows the Pats offense,

Pats have zero on the Jets running MMs offense.

And while your point about the schedule, through 9, is accurate, 10-16 is pretty favorable.

 

The difference between Harbaugh and Rex was that Harbaugh drafted Kap, so him benching Alex Smith in favor of the guy he drafted made sense. Rex drafted Sanchez so if by some miracle Sanchez outplays Geno, Rex is gonna stick with Sanchez.


BTW can you stfu and stop jinxing the team. Literally everything you predict the opposite always happens.

 

Regardless of WHETHER Geno is ready to play, he should start day 1. We have nothing to lose--the jets are NOT going to the playoffs this year (hopefully in 2014). Get him as many reps and as much experience possible and that means in the game. Peyton Manning started from day 1 with the Colts and he had a TERRIBLE first year. For those of you who think Sanchez should get a chance to compete, what planet have you lived on the past two years? The NFL DOES measure turnovers and Sanchez has led the league the past 2 years. The NFL does NOT measure "missing open receivers" but Sanchez must lead the league in that as well--the few times guys have actually gotten open he constantly throws too high and sails it way over their head. Seriously, ESPN still shows the butt fumble almost every night and the sooner we move on from Sanchez the better for us and the better for HIM--It was an insane guaranteed contract extension that Tanny gave Sanchez, but it's time to eat that money and move on from Sanchez the way we moved on from Tebow.

 

I'm pretty sure that Bill Belichick can get a good idea of what to expect from watching tape of the Eagles under MM with better QB'ing and skill players. I really don't see how that is an edge for the Jets. It is not like the Pats are going to be caught completely off guard by Mark Sanchez running a WCO. Especially given that they will have tape from the previous week and some from preseason. MM has left too large body of work for Belichick to be dumbfounded by a new offense with weak personnel.

The Jets won't exactly have much to go on with the Pats O either, given that they won't have Welker, most likely won't have Gronk, and there is a chance they will not have Hernandez. The Pats may be running something completely different from the past couple years out of necessity.

 

I guess any remaining questions would certainly be answered if the Jets go out and sign another vet backup..wouldn't they?

 

here's the thing, Redzone efficiency is about seeing an open reciever fast enough to hit them during the short time they're open, Sanchez had one good season in that regard. However, overall his red zone efficicency has been horrible often not seeing open recievers and locking on to one reciever. A perfect case in point was the red zone interception last year where, I can't recall off hand who the game was against or the intended reciever, but Sanchez pump faked not once, not twice, but 3 times while staring at the same reciever while that reciever was double covered and Sanchez STILL threw the ball. Now the triple pump isn't the norm, but the play still remains emblematic of Sanchez's problems. He locks on to a reciever and doesn't look off the defenders. You can watch game film on him all day and occasionally he'll do the right thing and briefly look off a defender, when he does he's successfull, assuming he's accurate with his throw.

The problem is Sanchez decides who he's throwing the ball to before the play has developed. I've never denied that Sanchez has the physical tools to play the position, but here'st he thing, all NFL QB's more or less have the tools, some better than others. Whether they're successful in the NFL depends on if they can put it together on the field.

If you watch Sanchez it's clear that the game has never "slowed" down for him, he's often frenetic behind the line and always, even when he has time he seldom seems to see the whole field. This seems to add up to him being indecisive on the field which is most likely why he's almost always late delivering the ball, or holds on to the ball too long.

And those factors are why Sanchez is in the bottom 1/4 of the league in QB's over the course of his career in every meaningful measure. Yes, he's shown occasional flashes of being good, but for every such instance he's had 3-4 games that leave you just shaking your head.

Yes you can blame OC's if you want to, but a good smart QB knows that if your receiver is double covered someone else is in single coverage and you check down. The OC doesn't make you throw in to double and triple coverage, that's the QB's choice to do and that does lay squarely on the shoulders of the QB. An OC also can't tell the QB when to throw the ball, aka an OC isn't responsible for balls thrown later than they should have been.

Part of Marks problem I think is he's convinced himself the pumpfake works so well he over uses it, and yes a single pump fake when used occasionally is very effective in the NFL. However, I think Sanchez uses the pump fake far more than any other QB in the league and I can't think of any QB that uses the double pump fake as often as he does....and in the NFL a double pump fake almost never works, especially when your double pump faking to the same reciever.

Is it possible that Mark puts the mental aspects of the game together at some point? Sure, others have. He's often compared to Breese, Manning and others as a possible "late bloomer". But I don't think that's the case in Sanchez's case.
The other "late Bloomers" when you break their stats down from age before 25 and then compare it to ages 25-26 almost universally showed a 5-6% increase in performance measureables. Sanchez showed a 1.2% increase in performance measurables when comparing the age developmental curve. Granted this is only applying the curve to QB's who've come of age over the past 10 years.

When your indecisive and slow on delivering the ball your throws are going to be off target, this results in fewer completions, fewer YAC when the ball is caught due and higher interceptions. Combine that with locking on to recievers and you get an ugly picture.

Mark is probably a perfect example of why you should never draft a QB with one year starting at QB as anything but a mid to late round developemental QB. He lacked experience coming out of college and he lacked a track record in college. In a lot of ways Mark represents the failing of the previous administrations overall draft record, drafting guys for their tools and not their track record in college. Granted they hit it big a couple times, but when they did hit it big it was usually because, in part, the player had at least a two year track record in college.

Can mark put it all together? Sure, anything is possible, I could hit the powerball tonight! Though I grant Sanchez's odds are better than my 2.00 ticket hitting the jackpot..but not by all that much.

I am convinced of one thing though, if Mark is going to turn the corner it will most likely have to be with another franchise. In almost every case of a late bloomer it took one or more changes of organizations for the player to finally put it together.

 

Forgot to address, one year as a top 5 in one specific category does not make a QB a top 5 QB in anything but that one category, when you look at the whole of the QB that season he was still a bottom 1/3 of the league QB in every other measurable.

 

I hear what you're saying and don't disagree. However, the point made earlier was that Tom Moore was brought in specifically for red zone offense and Sanchez excelled in that one area. That was the only time in his 4 years that he was able to work with a competent OC. Maybe, and its a huge maybe, he will progress now that he gets to work with a real OC full time.

 

Here's the thing about the outlying redzone factor in Sanchez's case, and with statistics in general. You have something called "outlyers". That is when you get a statiscal variance that is well outside the normal for that particular player. Then you factor in that TD rate can be reflective not only of the QB play but the team play in general.

Case in point, most teams don't respect the Jets passing game, they have little or no fear of the Jets passing game and know the Jets under Ryan have been a primarily ground and pound team, especially inside the 20. Teams routinely stack the box against the Jets meaning the passing game SHOULD be better than it is and has been. But if you look at Marks overall game in 2011 he was still bottom 1/3 to bottom 1/4 in almost every measurable. Granted he did have his best completion percentage, about 2% better than his previous career high, but still within a normal fluxation value for NFL QB's based on the norms for that particular player.

So what do you make of a player who under a "better OC adviser" only spikes one one category, and I might point out the most volatile of all QB stats, in touchdowns and redzone percentage.

It's worth noting that of I believe 20 redzone passing TD's that year, 14 of them came from inside the 10 yard line, and 8 of those 14 were inside the 5. Yes they still count as redzone points, but they're not the difficult redzone points that are between the 10-20 yard line where the Jets drives often fizzled. And, as Pointed out previously, inside the 10 teams were focused heavily on the running game since that had always been the teams trademark.

Now here are a couple of interesting facts, all but one of Sanchez's TD throws from between 10-20 came against 3 teams, Jacksonville, Oakland and Buffalo. The latter two teams gave up more passing TD's than any team not named the Vikings. Jacksonville in that term was a middle of the pack defense in 2011. In fact, and this is important, only 5 of Sanchez's 26 TD's in came against teams that were ranked higher than #16 in pass defense in terms of passing TD's allowed. 14 came against teams that ranked 22nd or lower in passing TD's allowed. In short, Sanchez fed on teams that were focused on the Jets running game but were also bad pass defenders to begin with. But against teams with average to good pass defenses he only threw 5 TD's in total.

So in By far Sanchez's best TD season 11 of 20 redzone TD's were inside the 6 yard line, and of those 11 inside the 10 only 1 was against teams ranked higher than #22nd in pass scoring defense. Infact of all the Redzone TD's he had that season, the 20 mentioned, only 4 were against teams ranked higher than 16.

So yes, a Sub average QB put up a lot of points against the leagues worst passing defenses, but against the average or good defenses he only put up 8 TD's in total, redzone or not against teams ranked #16 or better, 5 if it's only teams better than #16 in defense.

So yes, that number looks great, until you look at who they came against, and more importantly who they didn't come against.

 

Smith is our only hope. Better to play him now.

 

Only if he's ready to start and beats out Sanchez. Otherwise we will turn him into another Sanchez, especially if we throw him into an offense with dismal skill players and a rookie OLine