Excellent job! Thanks for doing that. I know it took a lot of time and thought. I really like your first 5 draft picks, but don't know much about the rest except for Nico Collins. I like the FA signings as well, except I don't know anything about Brieda. I looked him up. He looks like a JAG. What is it about him that you like? With regards to FA, I think (and certainly hope) that JD will sign a better WR than Samuel, but all of the better ones may re-sign with their present team and so not be available. Samuel would make a good consolation prize, but I will be a little surprised if the Panthers let him walk. I like re-signing Hewitt and Poole and bringing Kevin Pierre-Louis back. There's a long list of potential FA CBs. I hope that there might be 1 or two younger CBs who have some potential that JD will sign, but haven't been able to make headway on their present teams because they have topnotch CBs ahead of them on the depth chart. I totally agree with trading Mosley if JD can find someone willing to take on his salary/contract. Question: With regards to the ILB positions, you only have one listed at RILB and three at LILB. Is that a typo? I'm surprised that you have 8 WRs on the team, but like it. I like Ossai, but I'd be shocked and disappointed if the TEs corps stays the same except with Ruckert instead of Brown. We've received practically no production from that group this year, and I don't see how we could go into next year with basically the same group plus a mid-round TE in Ruckert. I think at least one of Pitts, Freiermuth and Howard will be there at the Seahawks' pick in the 1st round, and think JD should take him, unless there is a better WR there or for some reason Etienne has dropped to that spot. Edge can wait until next year. I'm not sure that Herndon can be salvaged. Griffin may not be back with the team. He said that his body doesn't feel the same and that he doesn't think it will ever be "right" again. He may retire. It's not much, but the Jets could save $1.875 million on the cap by releasing him. I'd like to see JD have weapons at TE, WR and RB. I'll be surprised if Chuba Hubbard falls to the 3rd round. I think he will be taken fairly early in the 2nd round. I forgot...I don't think Van Roten will be back. He's been awful.
I absolutely would have gone with Waddle or Smith but I am not expecting either to be available where I would take them in theory. We’ll know more about Moore’s size after the combine, but Tyreek Hill is an inch taller and less than 5 lbs heavier based on Moore’s reported height and weight. If it’s accurate I don’t see it as huge issue, if you can make sure he plays off the LOS etc. One thing I am aware of is that Joe Douglas wants big, physical players, so that may rule out a guy like Moore.
Some of my round by round projections could be off, it’s so hard to know that at this point in the season. It’s also a little about what type of players to target etc, you know what I mean? Also keep in mind this is a multi-year rebuild, so if you feel like 1 position isn’t fully addressed, the Jets still have a bunch of picks in 2022 (even more if they were to do something like I suggest). I do not want to draft a TE in the first round. If you remember that NFL marketplace post I did, TE’s are the cheapest players you can possibly find, even at the top end. If the Jets are desperate to upgrade TE, I would rather spend $11mm on Hunter Henry on a multi year deal than waste the 1st rounders that could be used on premium position players that would cost $18+ mm for middle of the road guys.
In regards to ILB, not a typo per se I was more thinking McGrone would start and the other 3 would battle for starting role. Brieda has some really nice speed for a RB. I think if used right he could be a poor man’s Raheem Mostert, and I think that’s what The 49ers had in mind when they traded for him, and then he got hurt and Mostert blew up.
Thanks for the explanation or clarification on the ILB position, and info on Brieda. I like the idea of another RB with excellent speed. Ruckert looks like a decent prospect, but Pitts, Freiermuth and Howard are all much better, and would more than likely be better than any WR prospect available at that point in the draft, and would add the benefit of better blocking too. With one of those as the starting TE, Mims and Crowder at WR, and a RB who is a good receiver, there would be plenty of targets for Lawrence, and that would keep opposing Ds more off balance. If we could count on Herndon and Griffin to bounce back next year, then I could understand Ruckert, but don't think we can count on either to bounce back. Neither Herndon nor Griffin may even be on the team next season.
Thanks for the explanation. I'd be happy with adding Hunter Henry. I just think that we need a solid TE receiving option. Heading into this season I thought we had two in Herndon and Griffin, now neither seems solid. I understand that you place a premium on value, but I think production and ability far outweigh value. Either Pitts or Freiermuth would be a HUGE weapon for Lawrence. Both could become superstars, and top TEs are paid less than top WRs, so there is value in approaching things in that way, plus again, you get better blocking as a bonus. The trend is going with taking elite TE prospects in the 1st or 2nd rounds. TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, and OJ Howard just to name the most recent taken in the 1st round, and Kittle, Gesicki, and Hunter Henry in the 2nd round. Both Pitts and Freiermuth may be better prospects than any of those TEs I just named.
still think a FA TE and FA RB can be a stopgap. Not sure you find the necessary 10 year starters for OL and WR as we’d find if we don’t address them with Seahawks pick and round 2 pick.
No love for any of the big WRs hitting the market this offseason (A Rob, JuJu, Godwin, or Kenny G)? If we can't get one of those, I would really love to address WR with that Seattle pick. I asked about Rashod Bateman in the draft forum either yesterday or Tuesday. Is he or Smith from Alabama a possibility? We have neglected offensive weapon for years and we just need to tackle it at some point. No better than time than when you bring in a shiny new QB with the 1st overall pick. Baltimore trading for Yannick most likely means Judon will hit the market. Could we also address edge that way or maybe even a Bud Dupree? I feel like there are so many ways this offseason/draft can go. It should be a lot more fun than this dreadful season.
Your post obviously involved a great deal of research and hard work. Thank you! My initial three thoughts, all fairly minor, are these: 1) I am about ready to give up on TE Herndon, and hope we move on from him 2) I hope the new jets coach/coordinator uses the 4-3 defense primarily because we have developed NO pass rush from the jets 3-4 defense for what seems like decades 3) I hope the jets draft a new kicker and don't bring back Ficken. Tired of the old man/retread kickers. Miami spent a 7th round pick last year on a kicker and he looks good.
Great point on Jordan Jenkins. He/his agent announced he was looking for $40-50M on a 4-year deal on the free agent market. Mike MacCagnan WOULD have given that to him, and we'd be stuck with another Trumaine Johnson bad contract. Douglas refused and Jenkins was offered squat by the rest of the league and crawled back to the jets for $5M. The way he has played this year, he likely won't be resigned.
When it comes to Free Agency, I don’t want to invest in big time players at certain positions especially with a GM who looks like an excellent drafter. Look at the market values in respect to the salary cap space used: -Joe Thuney, I estimate $14-15mm for top 5-10 G -Hunter Henry, I estimate $11-12mm for top 5-10 TE G and TE have low market values in relation to other positions, so you can get a very good one for cheaper than middling players at premium positions -Matt Judon, I estimate $16-19mm for not even top 15 Edge -Bud Dupree, same story maybe slightly more $17-20mm -Juju Smith-Schuster, $16-19mm for not even top 15-20 WR You get the idea. Because the league values certain positions more (understandably) in the Jets situation I’d rather invest FA money into the less expensive positions and draft picks into the more expensive. Golladay won’t break free from Detroit, Aaron might be available but Mims looks like the future X, which is what Arob is. The Jets need to look for speed as a compliment. Once the Jets have built a better core in the draft, they won’t really ever need to go big in FA period.
Herndon is so cheap there’s no point to cut him unless he is outplayed by 3-4 TE’s in camp. They could draft a kicker, I’d be fine with that in the 6th round. As far as switching defenses we have talked about it before on the board but the Jets don’t run a 3-4 very often, nor do most teams run a 4-3. There are usually something along the lines of 4-2-5, 4-1-6, 3-3-5/5-1-5. The 3-4 vs 4-3 debate isn’t really a thing anymore. In reality it should be a team of versatile defenders who can align as required by individual game plans.
The WR prospects you referenced are good players, Smith I’d be more interested in because as I said a minute ago the Jets need speed. Depending where that Seattle pick falls he could be available. Bateman has a similar skill set to Mims and wouldn’t diversify the WR corps enough for my liking.
I agree that Herndon is cheap, but he has been a liability this year, no doubt about that. Keeping a player who drop passes and/or fumbles the ball after a rare catch because of a low price tag seems unwise to me. Whatever. I suspect they will likely keep him, but not sure I would after what he has (not) shown this year.
Like I said, no point to cut him until training camp at least, you don’t have to keep him through the season if he struggles at that point.
Thank you for doing this. I'm curious about a few things if you don't mind me asking 1) no vet back-up QB? maybe bring in fitzpatrick for a 2nd go around. do you plan to run tlaw as the starter? 2) why release lewis over GVR? lewis has been better and the difference is only 2 mil. 3) I don't think Nico lasts that late. seems like 4th round would be his bottom out but a possible 3rd 4) why draft heavy on defense? I'd lean towards the offense more. you have a Lber in the 2nd and an edge late 1st. I think edge isn't good after the top 2 guys. I'd rather grab somehting on offense with that pick and save edge for another year 5) no cj mosely? Why trade him for nothing? he'll be very cheap this year and can anchor the defense for us. we also wouldn't save money by trading him.we would be eating 6 mil from the signing bonus and saving 5.85 mil in salary. it's pretty much a wash cap wise. I'd keep him on to help build the young defense. I think people forgot how good he is. 6) ficken over castillo? I think castillo may take his job 7) no WR1 in free agency? allen robinson would be great. so would juju or galladay. galladay likely will get resigned but I see juju and a-rob hitting the market. pair one of them with mims on the outside, crowder in the slot, and 2 rookies as the 4 and 5. maybe keep berrios and then 1 more spot to fight between the smiths, doctson, and UDFAs Overall though looks pretty good. thanks for the time and effort
1) They used a 4th on Morgan to be a backup for a few years, not to wait 2-3 years and get only 1 year out of him as a backup. I’m sure someone will be brought in to fill out the 90 man roster but I would be confident these would be the 2 opening day barring injury. Maybe they’d want a vet as an extra “coach” but if you have a good coaching staff what really is the point? I suppose they could do another year with Flacco. 2) I can justify a $3.5mm backup Guard, but not a $7+mm backup Guard. If I’m not planning on either starting, I’m keeping the cheaper one. 3)Maybe you’re right about Nico, it’s hard enough to estimate that in a regular CFB season let alone this weird one. 4) I want players to develop on offense and defense. Go all offense, only offense will be ready to really compete in 2022. If you wait till 2022 for all defense, defense won’t be ready to go till 2023. So enter 2022 with a good offense and shit defense? Still a losing team. Go balanced at the top in 2021, means balance in 2022. Add more in a balanced 2022, they accentuate already developed players on both sides, giving you an actual shot in 2022 with a balanced team. 5) This is their only chance to move Mosley. If they keep him, he might be good, and he might suck. Either way, you keep him it means you hit 2022 with a 30 year old LB with a $17.5mm cap hit you can’t get rid of. Even if he’s good in 2021 it’s a bad long term move. 6) It’s a kicker, if you have a major preference, mentally swap them out because they’ve been relatively interchangeable IMO. If they want to keep Mann as the KOS and Castillo as the PK it’s whatever to me. They could also go K in the 6th if there’s a good one. 7) Mims plays the same role on offense that either Smith-Schuster or Robinson play, with less proven but more upside than either. The Jets need a Z receiver, a field stretcher, not an X receiver like Mims/Robinson/Smith-Schuster... Even Golladay is the same type of player. You need diverse talents and skills in your WR corps, not all big dudes. The Steelers have an excellent framework for the WR position. It’s why they keep letting good players move on.... All the way back to Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress, and now Smith-Schuster. They have a damn good framework for drafting in general actually.
1) i agree on morgan but i feel a vet to mentor tlaw would be smart 2) Lewis is playing really well. grading out as an average starter at LG. only GVR is weak on the line. why would you not start lewis with thuney? that would make our o-line very good 3) yeah covid has made this draft wonky for sure. 4) IMO defense typically picks up the game faster then most offense (outside of RB) we can stll go D after the top 4 picks or maybe 1 CB in the top 4 picks but I want to set lawerence up to suceed. even if the D is a year behind it's better then ruining lawerence IMO 5) i get that. hes a huge hit in 2022 and after that we have an out. it would save us a ton in 2022. still trading him for a mid pick and no cap gain just feels odd to me. I don't disagree with you though since we aren't competing in 2021 6) was just curious. I could go either way. just didn't know if you preferred one or not 7) i get that. makes sense. man i miss robby
