That's correct. Most QBs and coaches who have bad first years end up being bad. Most coaches and young QBs fail anyway, and the odds are worse when you have a bad full season in the books.
Every successful coach in the league was a rookie at some point. The best was terrible as a rookie coach (BB).
For every BB who was bad to start his career and became elite, there are 20 coaches who started bad and never became good. Saleh might turn out to be a good coach, I'm just saying odds are he won't - hence "likely" missed.
Saleh took over a 2 win team for Christ's sake. And given the history of all coaches, most don't become "great." I feel you need to give Saleh more than 18 games. If you go by history then you could have made the same statement about him before he coached his first game.
Was not going to post thus week after Sunday. Predictable that the yahoo's would be calling for firings. It takes time to build a winner. Talent plus experience equals success. Hang in there.
You are correct ….. way too early to be talking about hot seats. The Jets are far from a finished product but they are looking a lot better on paper today than two years ago. JD hasn’t been perfect. I’m disappointed in the OL which is supposed to be his pride and joy however there have been untimely injuries. Wilson has injury issues….The defense is looking pretty good at this point though …
Not at all lol, for the same reason that expecting a young QB to improve as much as Josh Allen did is unrealistic. Exceptions to what generally happens don't make the general rule invalid. If you play the lottery enough times you'll eventually win, but that doesn't mean you're ever likely to win with any single ticket.
And Josh Allen didn't miss 8+ of his first 18 games either. Zach isn't on any type of Josh Allen trajectory so far.
Josh Allen is only one case. Go through the league of starting QBs and how many were good as Rookies?
That's my point - in the vast majority of cases young QBs who have bad first seasons never end up being good. The same goes for coaches who have bad first seasons. I'm not saying there aren't exceptions, I'm saying the exceptions are meaningless because the overwhelming majority of QBs/coaches don't work out. It's the same as winning the lotto and then using that as justification to go around telling everyone to play the lotto because they'll win too. I'm looking over a list of starting QBs and it honestly appears a fair number of them were either good or decent as rookies. There are some who weren't, and those are generally the below-average starters.
Sure some coaches start out shit and become fine, some QB's the same. But NYJ and lots of people on this board are far too slow to jettison once the evidence is in. We kept Sanchez 2 years too long--Schotty too as we were all so scared of changing offensive gameplans yada yada. Thus far there is no evidence that ZW is going to be successful--geez I just saw his BYU vs Costal tape the other day--how the F did we think this guy was pretty sure thing? Sure Saleh is one of the most likable guys and he's put likable and professional guys around him. But can they compete with the sharpest NFL minds? Thus far except for one play the OC came up with on that pass/lateral last year he's shown nada. Who the F is our offensive line coach? What the hell happened to our Left side Sunday?
If Zach doesn't come back and figure out how to play hero bowl JD and Saleh should not be back next year.
He's played 13 games. Once you start firing coaches after a season and giving up on your first round QB after 13 games, you've truly become a clown shoes organization.
I am starting to think it was more Brady than Bill. At one time I would have said the opposite but the last 2 years is proving Brady drove that team.
I see it the same way pretty much Zach is like 50/50 if he pans out to me after a bad rookie season but there is hope… OL should be much better than it is after three offseasons, but should also improve as the year goes on Saleh is also like 50/50 to me…may improve and turn out ok but hard to point to anything concrete on that yet again, trying not to over react to one game, but it’s so hard because it’s just more of the same shit we’ve been seeing, but I do think we’ll improve this year…I do think both Zach and the OL should improve as the year goes on, and I hope Saleh gets his shit together but none of those are a sure bet quite yet not saying give up on Zach or Saleh yet….not enough time yet, but they both need to show signs that are tangible and not subjective soft stuff this year. what would that mean? For Zach, I want to see improvement in the key stats like completion rate, yards per game, TDs vs Ints, etc. can’t be the lowest ranked QB in the league again. No more excuses. for Saleh, we can’t keep having double digit losses which are even worse than the final score indicates because we score a garbage time TD…we were down 24-3 until late in the fourth quarter last week. No more of these…we need to see some wins, but we need to be at least competitive in our losses…
I am arguing you are creating your own outcome and looking at the data wrong. Most new coaches struggle because they go to bad teams and are never given another chance so the data is flawed. Same with Qbs, you go to a bad team as a high draft pick and the team moves on before the QB develops into a competent QB. Jimmy Johnson was supposedly this great coach why did he fail in Miami? Why did Joe Gibbs suck when he came back? Bowles is going to be successful this season is that because he so much of a better coach or he has a better team? Geno Smith looked pretty good last night he sucked as a Rookie and could never get another chance. To say any player because they suck their rookie year will never be good is crazy. There is example after example of a player having a bad rookie season then playing well. No, I can't get behind they had a bad rookie season they will suck as QBs or coaches. There are just too many other factors that are more important to success or failure.
Always thought it was Brady more than Bill. I'd take the best QB of all time, or just in the NFL at that particular time, than the HC with the same credentials any day. Pats fans deep down knew it too, and living in Boston at the time you could tell
