Yes. But as I also have said any of Wilson, Lawrence, and Lance are in contention for being the top dog of this class 3 years from now. They are close enough that situation will now decide it.
Well, only two of them have national championships. The other scrubs are backup material. Lately, I've had visions of Douglas and Saleh taking Fields and its kept me up at nights. But with the Jets being the Jets and losing much, much more than they have ever won. I can see this happening
This is an interesting tweet. And in those 2 games, Lawrence lost to Ohio State and Fields lost to Alabama. I think it shows you why it is hard to project how these guys will play in the NFL, where many of them will walk into opposite situations than what they had in college.
We're going to start seeing this more and more especially as they look to completely standardize on relaxing transfer rules. They've already essentially done it and provide waivers pretty liberally so players don't have to sit out a year if they transfer. Fields, Hurts and Burrow got waivers. Didn't work out for them but KJ Costello and Kelly Bryant did the same thing as grad transfers.
My vote is Fields. I wanted Lawrence so bad he’s truly going to be a gem as long as Urban Meyer doesn’t ruin him like most QBs he’s coached. The reason I like Fields over Wilson is mostly based on a more sound body of work. Wilson is a one year wonder that has had shoulder issues and hasn’t played against anyone or with anyone. Fields has showed since high school he can play. He has toughness, leadership qualities and raw talent. In a run heavy Shanny type of offence he’s really a perfect fit because he has awesome deep ball accuracy off play action and he can move his feet. Too me it's not even close. Fields is the guy. Trust me a watched every game and I’ve been his biggest critic over the Indiana/NW games but that’s just a few bad plays that happen with a good scheme on D.
Mac Jones I expect to look a lot like C.J. Beathard the first few years in the NFL. Then when the game slows down for him his upside will be a weaker armed Kirk Cousins. Where would you draft that? For me that's a late 2nd round value.
Thanks for sharing but I think its a meaningless tweet honestly. They were talented because they had good QBs that could get their playmakers the ball. I also think you could use that logic and apply it to nearly every prospect. 2020: Did Burrow at LSU play against a team with more talent? Hell no. Did Herbert at Oregon? no. 2019: Murray at Oklahoma? No. Daniel Jones at Duke? Yes - but he sucks so maybe the logic is flawed.
I think it is meaningless in terms of if a player will be good or not, but I posted it because it shows you how these draft experts and scouts can get it wrong on players due to the talent around them. That was always my worry with Lawrence and Fields. Clemson and Ohio State are just that much better than other schools. The most extreme example is Mac Jones with Alabama. On the counter point, they still had to play well and did. It's just hard to project how they will play at the NFL level and talent around them and their opponents is part of that struggle in figuring it out. It was one of the reasons I was excited to have Sam Darnold. I felt he carried USC more than a usual college QB does. That did not translate well to the NFL though, as he clearly could not carry the Jets. You just never know.
Good point as well. Oklahoma State and Georgia this past year are good examples of this. Georgia had a CFB playoff calibre team but started Daniels too late because of their love for Bennett and it bit them. They'll send 5-6 guys to the NFL. This is also a yearly issue with Wisconsin. Oklahoma State was missing the quarterback as a part of their QB/RB/WR trio along with a good defense and bounced to the backend of the top 25 as a result.
Cool. Now Dan should do a video on all of the high INT QB's who are no longer in the league or became career backups. It'll be a way longer list.
Listening to Dan, I am actually even less optimistic than before about Sam's chances to be a great player. He found 3 examples in NFL, and two of them are not even valid. Big Ben had 37TDs to 10 INTs in last year in College. This is not comparable to Sam's 26/13. And Matt Ryan had 28 TDs and 9 INTs in his 3d year in NFL. If Sam had that, we would not be talking about his replacement now. Really the only close comparison here of someone who struggled with TOs from last year in College to 3d year Pro, but still became FQB is Brees. Sam has major odds to overcome here.
Chris Simms on PFT March 3rd; 1. Zach Wilson 2. Trevor Lawrence 3. Mac Jones 4. Kellen Mond 5. Justin Fields 6. Trey Lance Says Zack Wilson is really, really special and there's separation between Zack and everyone else. Zach is the clear cut, #1 QB. Thinks TL still goes #1, thinks the Jets will dive to the podium for Zack. This is the same Chris Simms who said (at the time) "No way Sam Darnold should go #1 overall, Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the class". Simms said he was mocked and ridiculed after claiming Lamar would be better than Sam. Edit: Sims added that Jets would be CRAZY to trade for Wilson/Watson with Zack sitting there. Edit: Watch Simms for yourself...he has TONS to say about all of these QBs: BYU’s Zach Wilson, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence top 2021 NFL Draft QB rankings | NBC Sports
I have the same top 2 with Wilson slightly ahead. Wilson over Lawrence is not shocking because Lawrence is not a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck.
Simms has historically been one of the most accurate predictors of QB prospect success, this carries weight.
At this point, I wouldn’t bash anyone for their quarterback rankings heading into a draft. I feel like by now we’ve seen enough instances where the third or fourth drafted quarterback ends up being the best in the class and the odds on favorite ends up behind them that you shouldn’t write off anything being impossible.
