I think we are a Mariota away from being respectable, for what that is worth. If he really has the brain to handle the NFL, I'm all in. But RGIII was on his way to a masters degree before he decided to go big. Question is, does Marcus have NFL smarts or is he just smart? I think that is a legit question to ask. If this guy can process NFL speed, he has the physical ability to be a prototype. The way everyone expected Kaep to be. But with a brain and not just headphones.
Maybe my four way trade with the Eagles is not so crazy after all. I had the Rams moving down in the draft in exchange for Nick Foles. Now Rotoworld has the following news: A source tells NJ.com that the Rams have interest in Nick Foles if the Eagles decide to trade him this offseason. Foles is 14-4 as a starter over the last two seasons, but there's plenty of reason to believe he is not Chip Kelly's guy for the long haul. Kelly inherited Foles, he prefers a mobile quarterback, Foles regressed sharply as a thrower in Year 2 and the Eagles could be plotting a move up in the draft for Oregon QB Marcus Mariota. According to NJ.com, the QB-desperate Titans and Texans would also have interest in Foles, who has one year remaining on his rookie contract. The Rams have already said Sam Bradford (ACL surgery) will face competition in training camp.
How about this Jets get - 2016 first (Eagles) - 2015 first (Rams) - 2015 second (Eagles) - 2016 third (Eagles) Eagles get - 2015 first (Jets) Rams get - 2015 first (Eagles) - Nick Foles
The process is, you bring in talent and have them compete against other talent in the same position, choose the guy that can do the job. If that's not good enough bring someone else to compete. A lot of people don't realize how Tom Brady got into the position when Drew Bledsoe got hurt. Brady was 4th quarterback on the team, Brady showed enough promise for them to keep a 4th quarterback in the 2000 season. (Have ever heard of another team that kept 4 roster spots for QB????)During their summer, Brady had had a better camp than all the other QB's, including Bledsoe, and they were afraid if they didn't keep him as the 4th QB, someone else would grab hin. So at the beginning of the 2001 season, Brady was #2 and when Bledsoe went down, the rest is history. The point is they put players competing against each other to win roster spots.
Mariota. Mariota, Mariota. Why are so many people here so sure he'll pan out as an NFL quarterback? I'd give him about a 66% chance to succeed. That's the same as a one in three chance to fail. And I'm trying to be optimistic. What number do you guys see?
I'm not so sure people are SURE he's going to pan out--how can we be about anyone? And it's not a "number" thing, there is no way to put a percentage or odds on him panning out. What's the basis of 66%? At least from my perspective I see a guy with every tool you need to be a top top QB. Supreme physical talent, high football IQ, incredible work ethic, leadership qualities. His only drawback is he needs to learn to play in a pro system. Is that a 5% thing? Then he's 95% because he has every other facet. Is that a 50% thing, then he's 50% to pan out. It's not a numbers thing. I feel really confident about the player. Others aren't- I get that (well, some of it). If he "pans" out like I believe, we'll be perennial contenders. If he's half of what I think, we'll still be competitive. If he busts then we're exactly where we've been for decades. I'll take that gamble. You don't win consistently in this league without a top top QB. _
I think it is safe to say that Mariotta will at least hit his floor of being a serviceable NFL QB. That is good enough for me.
Really? We put numbers on everything. Check out all the props bets for the SB. The 66% is as close as I can get to prognosticating. Everyone here is guessing, some using stats, some their gut, some school loyalties, some similarities or opposites of players they like or don't. If you feel "really confident" why not put an objective number on how confident you feel rather than that subjective mushiness?
Because it's a totally subjective opinion that can't be quantified by a number. What is the basis for 66%? You think he has a 2/3rds chance of panning out? What does that mean? What is that based on? What is that measured against? I have a 100% confidence he'll pan out. Happy? If I'm right, was I 100% right? If he's only 75% of what I think he is, does that mean I'm 25% wrong but you were only 9% wrong? What if your 66% was only 50% of my 100%? Does that make you 18% wrong but I'm 130% right? What's the gauge? Who measures who wins and who losses? And by how much? If you're 80% right, do you win? Even if your 66% was only 50% of my 100%? Why don't I win? Prop bets have a clear winner and a clear loser and an immediate payout. What do I get if I win? Or only SLIGHTLY win? What do you get get if you only SLIGHTLY lose? It's a stupid measure. I think Mariota is going to be an elite franchise QB. So...you think...he only has a 66% chance of that? Sounds like a good number. You should go with that. _
But they don't need a smokescreen. Unless they are thinking about trading down to 2 or 3 to get Winston, they don't need to blow smoke. _
Napoleon used to try to put a percentage on the outcomes of every major decision in his life and in battle. His key number was 51%. If he felt there was a minimum 51% chance of a favorable outcome from one decision he went with it. He died a lonely, exiled man with a proxy wife who didn't follow him to exile or care about him and his only true love had more affairs than fingers and toes. oh yeah- he did almost conquer Europe though
I've been assuming more or less, because there is a logic to it and also I have heard this, that Tampa would be inclined to take Winston. A local player, clsoe enough. Suits their game, and seems more ready for it, and assuming nothing more comes out negative about him. I know the NFL has an issue with domestic violence, but for individual teams looking at someone who in fairness (not talking about what I personally feel about the case against him) has no record and no hard case against him, an individual teams needs and preferences I can see quite easily overcoming objections. But perhaps not. Maybe even Tampa does not want him.
I looked around a bit about this supposed Tampa interest in Mariota. Not sure what to make of it. Someone noted that the Bucs threw out a smokescreen last year that they were very interested in Manziel and obviously did not end up taking him. It's possible they might merely be considering whether some other team (like Philly) would be willing to offer them such a huge trade for the spot that they would do such a deal. Particularly if htey think everyone else (like I have been) think they are set to get Winston, then those who are in effect counting on other trade and draft scenarios who want to get Mariota will not even call them. And here's the other thing - I don't think there's anything close to uniform opinion that the Bucs should move beyond Glennon. Funny considering some of hte pro-Glennon arguments made here. Maybe the Bucs' FO would stick with Glennon if some other team offered enough for their first pick. So there's quite possibly some gamesmanship going on here, but on the other hand Schefter apparently is reporting TB is now leaning toward Mariota. He is not always right, to be sure, but imo he tends to be right about as often as anyone.
Some might say East Rutherford has more in common with Elba than Paris. But that's probably too harsh. Notice I did not say Saint Helena. Heh.
Of course it's subjective, that's what I said in my earlier post, but this is a way to gauge peoples' confidence or lack of same. What's a "real good shot" for one guy might mean a four to one chance, another a two to one, It's only a method to weigh everyone's predictions equally without all the gray of vague adjectives. You don't feel strongly enough to commit to a number? Fine; that doesn't make it stupid to anyone whose ego is so sensitive it won't allow them to be wrong.
