If you've identified a QB who you believe can be your true FQB, unless you have proven QB development system that can make any competent college QB into a FQB (and AFAIK NO team has developed this), you're taking a huge risk in not taking that QB with your earliest pick. Yes, we can look at all the examples where QBs drop to later slots in the draft, but how often did teams miss their QB because a team ahead of them took him? Most teams never admit this so we can't know, but one example that cuts close to the bone for the Jets is Brett Favre. In 1991 Ron Wolf was the Personnel Director for the Jets and really wanted Favre. The problem was that they didn't have a first round pick that year. Their earliest pick was the 7th in the second round. They tried to make a deal with St. Louis to move up ahead of Atlanta to take him, but at the last minute the Rams backed out and the Falcons took him. When Wolf went to GB though he was able to trade for him. While some might say this reinforces the idea that you should wait to take your QB later, it actually shows the risks of doing that. The inability of even the "experts" to properly evaluate QBs should prove that their "declarations" about where so and so QB should be drafted are highly questionable. IDK if Lance is the real deal, but he has a lot of things going for him, so if the Jets think he's the FQB they want, they should use the #2 pick - or if they can be assured that no one will jump ahead of them, maybe trade back a few spots and take him - but regardless of their "assurance" that would still be a big gamble.
it's also how the giants wasted the 6th overall pick on jones when they could have traded way down and still got him or even took him in the 2nd.
I get it.My preference would be to trade down & hope hes there & if not take our chances next draft class. But If the scenario is we’re taking(reaching on) a QB at 2,no questions asked..Im taking the guy i actually believe in as a prospect
With all due respect, Jones is no where near the prospect level of someone like Fields. QB starved teams would reach for a QB, sure, but we are talking about different level talent in this QB class.
i'm not saying he is. what i was replaying to was someone else who said if you identify your take him regardless if it's early. So i pointed to a team who did that, the giants and took a 3rd round talent QB 6th overall and it hasn't been working out well
Fields is officially in the draft: https://nypost.com/2021/01/18/justin-fields-officially-declares-for-2021-nfl-draft/
First, do the Giants consider that he was a "wasted" pick? Second, if you don't believe that you can identify a good potential FQB, that's a big red flag there about your scouting and acquisition methods, IOW, you're basically saying, "I'm not 100% sure this guy is going to work out, so I'll trade back and take him at a "lower" slot and hope like hell no one else takes him before I do". Keep in mind that a FQB is THE MOST IMPORTANT player on the team. If you don't have one, your priority has to be getting one, either in the draft, or FA/trade. If you don't have the conviction in your selection, you've got a bigger problem than not having a FQB. And yes, teams screw up and pick the wrong guy all the time, but whether they took him at #6 or #36, it still would've been a mistake, just like the Bears taking Trubisky at #2. But the point is, regardless of whether they were wrong in their assessment or not, they identified their guy and were right to "put their money where their mouth was" in using their highest pick on them.
As of now I think they are undecided but leaning towards that yes. DJ could be out after this season along with gettleman at GM. as far as identifying a potential FQB and actually landing one are 2 different things. If it was that easy every team would have one and there would be no busts. All the experts said we had one with sam and that trubisky was one too and wentz. now all 3 of them may be released/traded etc. The other option your not seeing is what if the jets feel none of the QBs this draft are FQB? The draft is about getting value and building a team. not landing 1 position. if you can get your FQB and an extra pick why wouldn't you? your basically saying it's never worth the risk even if a guy isn't going in the 1st round you should still take him 1st overall because you feel he is your guy? that logic makes no sense
The only ones I see doing this are those who refuse to accept the idea of drafting a QB this year, and instead insist that we must take Sewell at #2 or trade down for a bevy of picks and take a position player.
For what it’s worth, from Allbright who said early on that the Jets were hiring Saleh and keeping Sam:
One thing is for sure one side is going to be that angry dude. I have decided to sit on the fence and get splinters and then I won't get 21 off to a bad start by not getting what I want. New QB#2, loads of picks, Watson and less picks, loads of picks and a new QB#23+ or even Sam coming back and having loads of picks. I guess we either have to trust in JD and Saleh and go with what they decide is best, nothing and I mean this nothing can be worse than what we have just been reduced to, openly hoping your team loses on a Sunday, fuck you Gase btw.
No they couldn't have gotten him later. At least one other team, and I think it was two that drafted before the Giants' 2nd pick have said that they would have taken Jones if he was there.
What I'm trying to say is that if you need a FQB, and you've identified him, why would you risk losing him to some team that takes him ahead of you? Of course what often happens is that some team id's a :"sleeper" whom they think no one else has identified and they think they can wait until later in the draft while either trading back and getting more picks (greed) or taking players they've decided are more highly rated. But these are erroneous strategies. First, given the freely available data available for every prospect, there really are no "secrets", so if the guy you covet is being rumored to be a later pick, there's probably good reason for that, and your denial of that is hubris (Re: Hackenberg, C.) Second, if you've decided that other players are more important for you to pick, you probably don't need a FQB this year, because if you need a QB that has to be your #1 pick (re: Maccagan picking a Safety when two highly rated QBs were available).
according to the guy who reached for him and nobody else. he was just justifying a pick everyone knew was dumb at the time and hasn't panned out. of course of jones was actually playing really well nobody would care that he was reached for. that's the beauty of the draft. Also you know he's lying because the 1st time he was asked he gave a different answer. at 1st his response was Asked if he could have taken Allen at 6 and still gotten Jones at 17, Gettleman said "You never know. I wasn't willing to risk it." then after more shit talking on the decision he changed it to "I know for a fact that two teams would've taken him in front of 17," he told reporters. "I know that for a fact. It's tough, it really is. It wasn't easy for me to pass up [edge rusher] Josh Allen. For me, you know, in my background, that was very, very difficult. But I think that much of Daniel Jones." If he really knew for a fact 2 teams were going to take him, he would have said that the 1st time. Also the statement in itself is just false. there is 0 way he could know for a fact who another GM was going to take. Had he said I was reasonbly sure that's different, but it can't be factual and teams would never leak a pick it's all speculation. and even if a team did "leak" their pick it could have been bait to get someone to reach so they could really get their guy. Maybe jax leaked it so josh allen would fall. we don't know that. All we know is jones had a 2nd-3rd round grade in that draft and was expected to go in that range, likely 2nd round due to positional importance. the giants also picked 17th and took a DT with a 2-3rd round grade there. More likely then not they could have gotten josh allen and DJ in the 1st and the DT in the 2nd. FWIW getleman also passed on darnold and allen (Qb josh allen) the previous year to take barkley 2nd overall and differed a year to get a QB as they felt eli had more years left then he did.
it's a risk for sure. and the draft isn't a science. but long term has shown that reaching for players does not work out even with the draft being a crapshoot. you don't go against stats for the 1 time you could be right. it's like winning the lottery. You don't assume you have the winning ticket against all odds because of a good feeling about it.
As I thought, it was a thinly-veiled shot at me. Your sentence above points out your fail in reasoning. Facts, data and reasoning are all on my side, not on the side of those who want to pass on taking a QB this year. Wanting to build the team first and then hope you can trade up to take a QB, and having to burn a ton of draft capital is a stupid, backwards way to build a football team. You don't do that unless you're forced to by there not being any great QB prospects when you're drafting high and don't have to trade up. That isn't the case. I insist on his taking a QB, because I know I'm right. It's too risky to rely on Sam, there are 4 very good QB prospects in this draft, one has to have an elite QB to succeed in the NFL, and now is the right time to get one since we have a new HC and will have a new offense being installed. If this wasn't a good year for QBs, then I'd be frustrated about that, but would know that we had no choice but to wait for another year or two before we could take a QB. That is not the case, however. There are 4 very good, if not great QB prospects in this draft, and at least 1-2 others who could proved to be decent NFL QBs. I believe with every fiber of my being that anything other than taking one of the 4 QBs would be foolish and a big mistake. That is based on the knowledge and experience I've gained of watching football for 55 years and reading and learning lots about the game. I could be wrong, but I've been right way more than wrong in my years following the Jets, and all 4 of the top QBs would have to be busts to prove that I was wrong about JD not taking a QB. The only other reasonable alternative would be trading for Deshaun Watson, but it would probably cost too much in draft capital and we'd have a hard time building around him. If we could include Sam in the deal and not have to give up that much in draft capital, I'd be all for that. If I quit being a fan, it won't because of just one bad decision made by JD, but rather the culmination of 55 years or stupid decisions made by Jets' owners, GMs and HCs, and I'm sick of it. I don't have it in me to wait for next year or hope he will learn or get it right in the future. I'm so sick of this team's stupidity that he could not only draft a QB, but the right one, and I could still walk away. As the old saying goes, there's a thin line between love and hate, and I'm a hair's breadth away from hating this team and hoping that they never win another game. Gase was the last straw. Even though there's lots of reason for hope and to be excited, I'm just burned out with this team. As Kurt said, the Jets are an addiction or an affliction, and I'm ready to be rid of that addiction.
Picking the wrong QB, especially with a high draft pick, with get a GM fired (and probably the HC too). Using a high draft pick on the wrong FQB is literally the worse things a GM can do to a team. Nothing sets a team back faster than going all in on the wrong QB. The second worse thing a GM can do is to draft the right QB then failing to surround him with o-line, weapons, and a great coaching staff. Passing on the right QB "well, shit happens, no biggie". I mean, tons of GMs passed on Mahomes. Watson, Wilson and Brady too. None lost their jobs over it. But teams with a GM that pick the wrong QB will clean house after a few years. Wentz is dooming the Eagles right now, and already got Pederman canned. Tribisky is getting the Bears cleaned out. Tannyhill got the Fish gutted (lol). Browns picking Jonny Manzel got their GM/HC fired. Sanchez and Geno Smith got Rex Ryan and TWO GMs canned. Picking and sticking with Hackenberg got MacCagnan and Bowles canned, ultimately. So take Justin Fields and Joe Douglas. If Joe takes Fields #2, then Fields HAS to become our FQB fast, like in 2 season. If Fields becomes nothing more than a good game manager (Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton) who can't put the team on his back and win tough games, and just can't get us to the POs or can't get out of the first round, the excuses will get old real fast. Four short years from now we will be cleaning house and moving on from Fields AND Douglas. Just the way the NFL works. All the love JD is getting on TGG now will turn into FIRE JOE billboards real quick. I know many fans don't think Sam Darnold is the answer and would LOVE for Joe to bring in a new QB who's better than Sam. ANYTHING!!! But if Joe burns a first round pick on a QB, then the new dude HAS to become our FQB capable of carrying the team or it's the beginning of the end for the Joe Douglas era. Joe Douglas has to be REAL carful to use a 1st round pick on a new QB. He HAS to be right.
I would hope we could follow the KC example of letting the QB sit and learn his trade before throwing him to the lions on game day 1. It certainly didn't do Mahomes any harm.
