If JD doesn't get a strong enough offer for Sam, he's gonna keep him around, at least for the beginning of the season. Keeping Sam (w/o an extension or his 5th yr option) doesn't; preclude JD from drafting a QB.
I didn't say Wilson's physical ability is similar, I said Justin's is. Fields has every bit of size and athletic ability that Lance does, and tested top athlete of his HS class 3 years ago, which included Lawrence and others. And he succeeded at much higher level, and a lot less risky than Lance, who is probably going mid first round. I came across interesting article with scouts analysis on Fields. They echo some of the concerns as are on this board, but the narrative seems that when you make a perfect QB in a lab, it looks very similar to Fields. Heck even Lance with no where near Fields accomplishments is projected high. Fields needs some coaching, like Allen and Jackson. He may need to sit out part of first year, like Lamar Jackson did and learn. Or he may hit the ground running if like Herbert, whom Fields is also compared to. But you don't normally get a chance to draft a talent like that unless you have a top pick, which we happen to have this year.
Can you though? Look at the Super Bowl winners going back 10 years. There's maybe one or two teams that didn't have elite QB's. I don't even mean very good. I mean elite, hall of fame level QB's. I don't doubt you can consistently make the playoffs if you get everything but the QB right but you're very unlikely to win it all without one.
if i interpreted your post wrong my apologies. Fields has been highly regarded since HS & is a superior athlete w high intangibles.Theres alot to like.Now hes got some things to work on,Some of it mental & some of it cause hes coming from a watered down scheme.Thats where my concern comes in. I dont question others having conviction for him.I like him alot more than i do Wilson. I have conviction for Lance. Just like his physical package alittle more than Fields.Hes Very instinctual in all aspects in the same boat as Fields where he has things to work on but wouldnt be surprised if he starts & wins early. My ideal 1st round would be to trade down w Cincy Take Kyle Pitts & trade up from 23 to 12-15 & take Lance.
I'd like to trade down from 2 and get Smith or Chase, then trade up from 23 to get Lance. In year 2, Lance would be stepping into an offense that has established weapons and some who are just getting started.
I think people will find that if they stop clamoring for a QB this year the draft gets a lot more productive. It prevents you from crazy notions like trading high picks to use a #1 on Lance.
I have to disagree with this. As you said in the first sentence, the GM needs to find a balance. If the passing game is deficient the answer isn't to not devote resources to it, but to increase resources, to try and reach that ideal balance. Of course most teams never do, and usually wind up relying on the run or the pass whichever their talent supports, and in the modern era of the NFL - the past 20 years or so - the rules and interpretation of those rules have swung heavily to favor the passing game. While I accept the limitations of the current roster, with Darnold underperforming - much of which is the result of lousy coaching and poor surrounding talent - and that this isn't likely to change overnight, even if the Jets draft Fields or another potential FQB. This is why I think it's important to focus on building up the OL and weapons - ideally using FA for part of that - because no matter who the QB is, Darnold or Fields, or whomever - the won't succeed without that. My hope is that Douglas uses the #2 pick for Fields (or Wilson or whomever he thinks can be the FQB), and then focuses the bulk of the premium picks on OL and weapons, whether WR, TE, or RB. Ideally, if he could trade back from #2 and still get Fields while gaining a couple more picks that would be great. But if worst comes to worst and he doesn't think Fields or another QB is worth the #2 pick, I;m on board with trading back to get more premium picks to use towards these objectives.
I think there's a difference between being what you term elite and a QB who slings it all over the place though. Brady doesn't do that, I don't think Peyton did either. Nor would I say did Montana. They are clearly very good QBs but they threw in a very controlled calculated way and they had support. Wilson was more of an elite game manager where he won (and lost) with Beast Mode and a great D. That's what I'm thinking rather than, say, Flacco.
This. If JD feels none of these QBs are the 2nd coming of Mahomes, then he needs trade back, still get one of them, them spit his resources between BPA on O and D. We're too far away with too many holes on both sides of the ball. JD needs to start plugging our many holes with top young talent, wherever he can find it. And probably the next draft too. Eventually we'll feel like we have our QB and a pretty good team, both sides of the ball. THEN JD and target a specific player that puts us over the top, whether that's another top WR or PassRusher. But right now we have SO many holes JD has to simply draft raw talent, and that includes QB if there is one.
There is some truth in what you say, but Sanchez and Rex were 10 years ago. The NFL is rapidly changing, evolving, and the conditions in which that happened are rapidly disappearing. Also, just because one has a great offense doesn't mean that one cannot have a balanced team. It isn't either/or.
I understand that you want to maximize the value for the pick, and still end up with a good QB prospect from the draft, which is a fine strategy. For me the QB position is so critical that I want to take the best QB prospect that can become elite QB for the Jets. I wanted it to be Trevor, and therefore was very upset with a couple of meaningless wins we had, which erased that option. And Lance is a good option too, but Fields is simply a better prospect. You can argue physical package is slightly better on one or the other, but Fields is right there as one of the most gifted athletes with big arm. The problem is that Lance only played one season for a tier 3 school. Played in one game entire last year. It just scares me a bit and introduces a greater risk if he will be our FQB. Yes, in your scenario we can get more other assets and if we get lucky may still get Lance. Or we don't get lucky, can't trade up, and don't get him. Overall, it's just a much higher risk that we don't end up with FQB than simply drafting Fields, who will definitely be gone in top 4, and basically is a Lance physically, but much more proven.
Yes, it would be bad to pass on Smith, Sewell, or Chase and take Wilson or Fields instead and then that QB bust, but it would be far worse, to take one of Smith, Sewell, or Chase and he busts, or is just an average NFL player or even if he's great, but Wilson and Fields proved to be true FQBs and led their team deep into the playoffs every season. The draft is risky. It's an art, not an exact science. There are no guarantees, but there are several things we know for certain...one doesn't get the opportunity to draft a FQG very often, so one had better take one when you get the chance; lots of teams need QBs, and if you're drafting outside the top 10, your chance of getting one of the top QBs isn't good unless you can find a team willing to trade down with you, and even then, it's going to cost you the ranch to trade up, which will hinder your ability to build around him; QB is the most important position on the team; the Jets have had lousy QB play for decades; and one doesn't have a realistic chance of winning a SB without an elite QB. It is worth the risk. The Jets MUST draft a QB in the 1st round.
Another reason why it would be dumb to wait until next year to take a QB. Still, the most important reason, is that one should build the team around the QB, not build the team and then try to plug in a QB.
The question is not if Darnold is the guy or not. It's more who is the right guy ti That's basically how the Pats, Packers and Chiefs did it. Was is really a bad strategy? The problem is people when they think about QB they think in absolute. Just like Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes/Aaron Rodgers just happened overnight. They needed time, the right coaching and to adjust their game.
You know, the more I think about it, there really is no reason why JD can’t keep Darnold AND still draft a QB in the first round. I get that it does not maximize resources (we could get picks back for Sam....though not clear what....we can’t say he sucks on one hand but expect a bunch of high picks in trade...either he’s good and will bring decent picks or he sucks and will bring shitty picks), but it does minimize risk to some extent. We can keep him, let him compete, and then if he plays well we either sign him or trade him. The downside is that if he does well and we want to keep him, it may cost more than exercising the option now. The other downside is it has the potential to stunt the growth and development of the rookie. I don’t know which path is best....Darnold has been the worst QB in the league, but he has had terrible coaching and no help on the field outside of Crowder. But on the other hand, I am in no way sold on Fields (has had bad games when playing good defenses) or Wilson (small, tier 2 school, shoulder injuries)....I don’t know....I think either may be good but wouldn’t be shocked if they bust, but in any case I don’t really see either as a huge step up at this point. Could be wrong here...and Fields may be the right way to go.... very interesting decisions for JD and the new coach, whoever that ends up being
I just don't see this as a realistic possibility. I think there is more chance that Miami takes Fields (and than trades him or Tua) than him lasting until say Bengals pick at #5. Guys like Fields, who have size, athleticism, arm, and NCAA career Fields had just don't come around very often, and recently these guys succeeded quite well in NFL. Guys like Lamar, Allen, Murray, Herbert. These guys had even more question marks than Fields. Since Andrew Luck got drafted I don't see anyone who checks more boxes, aside perhaps Burrow (and Trevor this year). Teams that need QBs take QBs high, knowing they have areas to improve and question marks, and maybe even not ready to start day 1. So, as ideal as it would be to get more picks and still get Fields, I don't see it happening. If we want to get a QB prospect out of this draft that maximizes a chance at FQB, it will have be at #2 spot.
Sounds intriguing, but I don't think we can afford to trade up. To trade up that far would cost our #2 and maybe one of the #3s or our #4 in addition. No way we should do that imo. I'd rather take Fields at #2 and then take Freiermuth with the #23 or #34 pick. He may not be as explosive and dynamic as Pitts, but is a mismatch in his own right, and is a better blocker, and could be a great weapon as well.
My thought process is the compensation in the trade down w Cincy would likely offset the move up for Lance,Ideally not cutting too far into the warchest.
What does "sling it all over the place" mean to you? It sounds like you think of a careless, reckless passing attack, maybe 50-60 throws a game and maybe only 15 rushers. I don't think any of us are looking for that on a consistent basis, so I think our difference may be semantics.
I know you love Pitts, but what about trading down to say 10 or 12? For that we should get at least a 2nd and 3rd round pick. With that #10 or #12 pick we take Lance, Then depending upon where they are ranked, with #23 we could take one of Terrace Marshall Jr., Creed Humphrey or Trey Smith. With our 2nd round pick, if one of those 3 is left we could take him. If we traded Sam and got a 2nd, we could use that 2nd to take Freirmuth, Javonte Williams or Brevin Jordan. If we only got a 3rd for Sam, then perhaps we could pair one of our 3rd round picks with our 4th and trade up to get a playmaker we like in the 2nd (although I really dislike trading up and don't think we can afford it). Then we'd still have two or three 3rd round picks with which to address the OL again, RB if we didn't get Williams, a RT like the kid from Cal that you mentioned, or maybe even a CB or Edge if one was there that Dougas and the HC liked.
