we lost a game we had no business even being competitive in. BOO HOO. GOOD JOB JETS! Way to fight and play above your talent, ESPECIALLY without our top 3 receivers!
Our defense caved in the end but this was easily the best game they played today. Complimentary football helps both sides of the ball.
JV, you're stating the equation too simply. There are situations where you clearly take the FG, and there are situations where you clearly go for it. This isn't one of those clear situations either way, but to say "it's just not smart" is living in the past. I hate to be "that guy," but bear with me. Here comes math and guesswork. GO FOT IT Let's say the Jets have a 60% chance (reasonable?) of getting two yards = 60% chance of instantly winning, plus 80% chance of holding the Bucs if you don't get it = 92% chance of a win. KICK FG Assuming you make the field goal 100% of the time, which we know is a stretch = 0% chance of instantly winning, plus 75% chance of holding the Bucs (on the shorter field after kickoff), plus 50% chance of winning if the game goes to OT = 87.5% chance of a win. Obviously I'm not insisting those probabilities are correct, but I think I'm being generous, actually. Especially with the 100% field goal, and Brady being only 50% to win in OT. At the very least, surely you'll agree that there are times when it's technically correct to go for it on 4th there.
you forget to factor in the Brady 80% chance to win if you give him the ball last ESPECIALLY against the Jets.
The decision to go for it was great, not so much the playcall and certainly not the decision by Zach.
Based on what Zach was instructed to do, he made the correct decision. I blame the play call. Hell, I blame the decision to go for it. Fucking stupid.
I don’t buy into these percentages when it comes to winning a NFL game. You have very limited shots to win a football game and this isn’t baseball where you can play the percentages over a 162 game season and come out on top if you hit 60% or more. I think game situation and circumstances matter a lot as well. It’s Brady and all but we just saw their sideline explode with a massive distraction at that point and had only given up 20 points in the game. I’ll take my chances with Brady making the 3-5 perfect throws he had to make to tie the game rather than win it and let the coin flip determine our fate if need be. The NFL has fallen in love with these percentages on fourth down and “going for the win” and stuff like that. The percentages can say you convert at a 70% clip but doesn’t factor in that you might only come into that situation once in a game. So it’s either a 0/1 or 1/1 scenario.
I get a kick how the board is dissecting the fucked up call by Saleh like it was a differential equation problem. Let's face it, our defense is bad and and that needs to be addressed in the draft. Zach is making progress; give him a TE and a legit #1 and the Jets should make a steady move up the pack in 2022.
When was the last time you saw a QB burrow for 2 yards on 4th down? Me, I've never seen that. You see 4th and inches, 4th and 1 all the time but 4th and 2? Never. This was all on the rookie QB playing hero ball when the coaches slipped up and gave him the opportunity. How many times have we seen Brady walk up to the line and go get that foot and a half the Patriots needed? That's exactly the scenario that was likely playing in Zach's head as he moved up to the line of scrimmage. Now if he'd had a directly overhead camera showing him exactly how long 2 yards is he'd never have gone hero there. His odds on getting that 1st down were probably under 10% even if the Jet's OL got some push. But give him the opportunity to make it all about him and he'll do that. He does have Aaron Rodgers attitude. Unfortunately he doesn't have his skills. And Aaron Rodgers probably would have been driven out of Green Bay on a rail if he started as a rookie.
I've all but given up on listening to anything you say. You said @MaximusD163 has an agenda. Yours is as clear as day. Hey, the guy you said was the only QB worth taking in the first round is rated worse than Wilson. Go spin that.
I get what you're saying but the math is based on doing these things every single time it's beneficial to do so over the course of a season. Deciding to situationally not do them defeats the point of trusting the numbers. There are dozens of 4th down situations over the course of an entire season, the numbers do generally work out with that large a sample size.
Smartest guy on TGG I've been told. And you know what? He very well may be but his recent takes are cringe worthy. Just awful.
I don't need to spin that. I said you had to take Lawrence if you had the #1 because he was the consensus best player in the draft. I never said he was going to be great. I said the entire class of QB's had about a 50/50 chance to produce a franchise QB and Lawrence accounted for most of that chance.
You don't get it yet. You've been sold a mirage from the moment the Jets decided to take Wilson and did a very poor job of concealing the fact. The only reason I get it is that I have been around for a couple of generations of these mirages and I know exactly what they look like. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me a half dozen times? Well, that just makes me a fool if I fall for it. For you this is maybe 3 times the Jets have sold you the same tired dog and pony show. You'll figure it out.
But how does 70% help you in a singular occurrence? When you shift in baseball because you’re going to get a guy out 70% of the team across 20 at bats in a three game series it makes sense. When you go for it on 4th and 2 in the only chance you’ll get at it all game, the percentages don’t play to any advantage because it’s based on everyone going right on one single play.
If that's an argument for kicking the FG, you're doing it wrong. if we go for it, we have a chance to win by getting a first down. By your reasoning, kicking a FG is suicide. Brady has an 80% chance to tie it, and then Brady gets it again in OT (most likely) and scores again.
