Frankly I don't mind either one, but I don't want to see another contract dispute from a player who is already making close to 10M. I'd like to allow that headache to be someone else's problem.
I thought this too, until I saw the ridiculous contract demands that have been floated for Revis. Revis and his team dont want to be the best paid CB. If they did the Jets would just resign him. They want QB money (ie: 16-17mill a year instead of 11). I dont think any team will give that to Revis. As a one year rental, Revis does not have high value.
They would get the 3 back if Revis walks, and with the KC 2nd rounder its not that big of a hit to lose their 1.
The 49ers and any other team have to decide if its better to rent Revis for a year (along with giving up draft picks) or trade up for Milliner. It might be better for the 49ers to get Revis if they feel like he is the missing piece. Other teams like the Bucs and Vikes it might be cheaper to move up for Milliner, both in draft picks and compensation.
Did not think about that. If Niners/Broncos/etc.. trade for Revis & he walks out on them they're eligible for the same 3rd round compensatory pick that Jets were looking to receive? That really adds to Revis trade value. Kind of gives the Jets a free late 3rd rounder in their trade package.
It would take more then a first and a second for me to trade Revis, especially when its a late first. Revis is a once in a lifetime talent. You need to get more then that. Only problem of course is Revis is coming off an injury and will be an FA at the end of this season so Idzik and the Jets are in a tough spot here.
I hadnt thougt of it either, someone else mentioned the team getting him would be eligible. I think that changes the equasion for the other team in the trade. The niners can offer their low 1 or the chiefs 2 with a three, and maybe a conditional 1 if they resign Revis. That gives the Jets the 3 this year where they will need it, and they could possibly make out if the niners resign Revis. From the niners standpoint they get a one year rental, for their late one or early 2 and a swap of third round picks from this year(where theyre loaded) to next year. If revis returns to form and they resign him,they would lose and additional 1, but for the best CB in the league it is probably worth it. If not all they lost is a low 1 (or early2) and a few positons in the third round.
If it's not 1 year Revis will be picking where he wants to play do to contract demands. He's not going to want to play for a loser. He has control!
I believe Revis will go to the high bidder if the team who has him under contract doesn't lock him up by the beginning of the 2013 season. It's very rare for a player to get a completely unhindered bite at free agency while still in his prime. Revis is going to want to get everything he can out of that. Lately big defensive contracts have been a disaster for the teams that gave them out. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the team that signs him. One other interesting thing: I've been thinking about the Flacco deal and what it means for Baltimore. They got their ring, which is all any team is looking for and something that most teams will pay almost anything to get. Now however they are going to pay the price for that ring, after they already have it and without much expectation that they're getting another one. It's almost like Revis presents a golden opportunity for a few select teams next season. They can give it their best shot secure in the knowledge that they don't have to lock him up if they win because his demands will make that almost impossible for them. He's like a freebie boost and if they win their fans will be so happy they won't care if Revis walks at the end of the season.
To begin with, I don't think the niners will trade up for Revis, that said... You premise has two problems. First, it should cost as much, if not more in picks to move into the range needed to draft Miliner. Second, even if it was a bit cheaper, Miliner is in no way giving you the same type of play at corner that Revis will next year, if ever. If it is a trade to win now, you want Revis, if not your waiting on which ever player drops.
I don't think there's a team in football that wouldn't trade a late 1st and early 2nd for a Super Bowl win. The question is do Baalke and Harbaugh believe that adding Revis to the 49ers makes them the prohibitive favorite to be the NFC team in the Super Bowl next year? Getting the value they did for Alex Smith gives them a huge degree of latitude in packing the roster for next season. The question is how they pack the roster. Do they want to bring more potentially great young players onto the team with the swarm they already have, knowing that the cap is going to cut them to pieces in a few years as a result? Do they go get their ring now and then let Revis walk, giving them cap flexibility down the road? Cap vs Ring. It's an interesting question.
The answer is yes they do believe that and rightly so. But that doesn't mean there will be an agreement - lots of time before that decision would even need to be made. There is no rush for the Jets. if teams don't make a good offer, GREAT !! We keep Revis. win/win.
Let's try and look at Revis's value in a different direction. http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php I believe that Tampa Bay is a logical place for a #1, and the trade value is 1,150 pts. (of course, just because I believe that doesn't mean that is his worth) Based on that assessment, the 31st pick and the 34th pick would value as 1,160 pts. What if Philly offered their 4th, the value would be 1800 pts. What if KC offered their 1, the value is 3000 pts. In this theory, the highest 1 offered would be the starting point for all bidding wars. So what do you think Revis's trade chart value is?
The compensatory pick is not guaranteed. The League looks at the number and player lever of the players that leave in free agency and compares that to the players aquired in free agency that same year. If the team gets a number of good free agents then the team (Jets or any team that trades for Mevis) get zero for him. Since we are planning to cut the payroll in 13 so we can pick up some good free agents in 14 the chances of getting nothing for our best player if we keep him next year and don't resign him are very high.
The compensatory pick isn't based on skill level, it's the number of players that leave vs the number of players that get signed. If a team brings in the same number of players as it loses, that's when quality of player is taken into account, but by rule, only a seventh can be awarded.
The best value will be a couple of weeks into the season. The 49ers will give the 31 or 34 now. Couple of weeks into the season would get a higher 1 and a 2 or maybe another 1. But i'm still holding out hope he resign. ( if his agents are willing )
