The NFL is over optimistic about high pick QB's at this point. It's an over-correction due essentially to Peyton Manning's success. In the 20 years after Peyton Manning was selected #1 there were 26 QB's taken on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd pick of the draft. Of those 27 only 7 were successful with the team that drafted them. The successes include Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck - whose careers were cut short by injury. They include Cam Newton who was successful early but ultimately washed out with the team that drafted him. They include Matthew Stafford who was unable to win with the team that drafted him for reasons unrelated to his talent. The only QB's drafted in the top 3 who had long successful careers with the team that drafted them were Peyton and Eli Manning and Matt Ryan. 15 of the 27 QB's taken were outright busts with the team that drafted them. A couple more, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, were not busts but their original teams moved on shortly after they signed high money 2nd contracts. The trend recently suggests that we may have another successful long term #1 QB in Joe Burrow but it is hard to ignore his injury history at this point and it is very possible this will prevent him from being the *first* guy since Peyton Manning to be clearly one of the top 5 QB's in the NFL over the course of his career.
That is interesting, for sure. I still wonder how much the situation you go to factors in to your success. Football is a team sport, and all these top picks head to terrible teams. Sometimes they can get turned around like the Browns and (hopefully) the Jets right now, but it is not a guarantee. So 15 of the 27 being outright busts is a little surprising, but also not. I get how that could happen.
Sounds like bakers camp asked for an extension and browns said, we don't know who we want as our QB next year and want to evaluate it. That report of wanting an adult at QB is hilarious. Sent from my M2007J20CG using Tapatalk
You think the Browns have really been turned round? For sure? They've had a shit ton of top picks and one, maybe two, good seasons in reality. Now they could build from here if they get Watson, or Baker could make a leap - the team's in place to do that. Or they could fall back with or without Watson too. I'm thinking there's a better than even chance in two years the Browns are back to square one and the last few years are seen as a slightly upward blip in an otherwise historically epic period of suck. Not unlike the Lions in truth, a few years of relative success, a few of mediocrity and now they are pretty much back where they started. That's not what I want for the Jets at all.
I think the Browns have built a pretty good team. They went (11-5) in 2020, then Baker was hurt most of the year last year and they went (8-9). We will see which direction they go in 2022, but they clearly have made a lot of progress since that 2017 (0-16) season.
If Watson picks the Falcons, Ryan to the Colts is the next logical step. Recoup a 2nd this year and a conditional 1st next year. With Watson not going to Cleveland, the Browns don’t have a better option than Baker.
