Pederson is a real idiot - it was obvious the ball was tipped, so it can't possibly be PI. And God these Eagles receivers are awful.
Hoping for a patented Eli pick six to end it. I despise the Giants so it's easy for me, but it's easy for any Jets fan to be rooting against them - the worse their record gets the better the third round pick for Williams becomes. It could end up being almost a second rounder if they keep losing.
Say you're down 17-9 and just scored a touchdown. Make the following simplifying assumptions (in reality it's more complicated but this model shows the general idea): 1. Extra points are always good. 2. 2 point conversions are good half the time. 3. By the end of regulation, you will score another touchdown, and they won't score again. 4. You have a 50% chance of winning in overtime. Say you kick the extra point to make it 17-10. Then you'll score another touchdown to make it 17-16, kick that extra point to tie it, and force overtime. You'll end up with a 50% chance of winning the game. Now say you go for 2. Half the time, it's 17-11. So another touchdown plus the extra point wins you the game. The other half of the time, the 2 pointer fails and it's still 17-9. When you score again, you're down 17-15, giving you a 50/50 shot of forcing overtime. So your odds of winning the game are 0.5*1+0.5*(0.5*0.5+0.5*0) = 0.5+0.125 =0.625. So you'll end up with a 62.5% chance of winning the game. That's why you go for 2.
So, half the time you win outright (2pter is good), a quarter of the time you're no worse off than kicking PATs (first 2pter misses, 2nd one hits), and a quarter of the time you fail (both 2pters miss)? That actually makes sense. I'm a bit surprised the numbers still work even if you're terrible at 2pters tho.
