I don't understand the love for Kizer. IMO all he has going for him is his size and arm strength. IMO he's an awful prospect. He isn't accurate, and evidently isn't a very good leader if he wouldn't win at Notre Dame with all the talent they have. I've seen him play several times and was totally unimpressed. I have zero interest in him, and wouldn't take him in the 3rd round. I think you were right the first time. I rate the QBs: 1) Mahomes - in the 2nd or 3rd round 2) Trubisky - in the 2nd or 3rd round 3) Watson (but don't think he would succeed in the NE due to lack of arm strength, so don't want him) 4) Webb (3rd round or lower only) 5) Peterman (3rd round or lower only)
I'm not necessarily "down" on him as much as I am up on the other guys. I think Watson's arm strength is gonna hurt him unless he goes to a dome or good weather team. He has an inconsistent deep ball and he often looks to be one read and run instead of looking for a second option, which is another concern for me.
If I ever get time I'll post some time stamps in DB videos of plays that changed my mind. I think he's much more refined as a pocket passer than people give him credit for, and surely than I did at first.
I don't watch college football just watch some games off and on just don't get the knock on Nathan Peterman. Why is he not considered a top QB? He seems extremely mobile and at the same time has really good accuracy on his deep balls. Comes from a pro style offence. What is it that drops him down to the 3rd/4th round?
First, I'll point out that my top 2 tiers of QBs (Mahomes/Kizer vs Trubisky/Watson) are essentially stratified based on ability to handle pressure. Trubisky is far too willing to stay on his mark and let pass rushers come at him, whereas Watson is too often willing to run once he sees his first read covered or at the first sign of danger in the pocket. They're both excellent QB's when everything is clean, which is why I think they can both be good game managers but not top 10 guys that take over an offense. Trubisky I see as Andy Dalton, and Watson I see as a weaker-armed Dak Prescott. Mahomes and Kizer are far better when pressured, but for vastly different reasons. Mahomes has the Russell Wilson/Brett Favre ability to break plays down into a video game and just work magic on the run until something comes open. Kizer handles pressure in a much more conventional way which I see directly translating into NFL success. He has a really good feel for pass rushers without ever seeing them, and he's great at making subtle moves WITHIN the pocket (unlike the other 3 QBs I've listed) to extend plays. Kizer has a lot going for him. Obviously being 6'4" 230 with almost 10 inch hands gives him "prototype" size. He's also a fairly dynamic runner and has a strong arm to "make all the throws". However, I'm not going to bombard you with clips about his athleticism and strong arm because his sophistication as a pocket passer is what made me change my opinion on him. In fact, looking at him as a "prototype" is what turned me off about him the first time I watched his tape. I'll also note that a lot of the moves I'm going to point out in these games are extremely subtle, so much so that it might seem that I'm grasping at straws to try to pump him up. However, these little maneuvers in the pocket are crucial at the next level, and a huge reason why I loved Mariota as a prospect (and why I think he's been succeeding right away). These little glides and dips often are the difference between sacks and completions, as they can buy time for receivers to get open, generate better angles for throwing lanes or even do something as simple as setting up leverage for a lineman that's been beaten. I also exclusively looked at 3 of his 2016 games, since it's been proposed that he "fell off" this year. -0:17: This is the first play from scrimmage. He gets through 2 reads on the front side and doesn't like what he sees, he slides to his left around oncoming pressure and gets to the backside and delivers a strike. This play is a microcosm of what I just talked about; the movement is barely even noticeable (it's just one shuffle to his left) but if he doesn't do it he probably gets stripped. He recognizes the problem while his eyes are still downfield, and instead of doing something dramatic like breaking the pocket to run/make a throw on the edge, he makes a sophisticated little maneuver. -0:48: His right tackle is beaten immediately off the snap and he senses it without seeing it, shifts around it and fires a dime deep downfield. This is the type of play that transcends the talent level around him.... His lineman is instantly beaten, his receiver isn't open and he turns it into a long touchdown. This kind of stuff differentiates franchise QBs from game managers. -3:29: Just another great throw to someone that isn't even open. -3:49: He consistently goes through his progressions. I'm not going to point out every time he does it, but I'll sprinkle a couple in just to demonstrate it. -3:59: I love this play because the announcer (the Jets radio guy) explicitly says "Kizer doesn't see the rush coming...". He never turns his helmet to see that his right tackle got smoked (which happens a lot, guy sucks) yet he somehow knows to drift to his left. He just keeps sliding and sliding until his receiver wins on his route and makes a nice throw. -0:05: Scans the entire field with feet constantly buzzing -0:17: Hitches up underneath pressure and makes an accurate throw while getting hit -1:28: He consistently shows downfield precision, not just accuracy. He hits guys right in stride to allow them to run after the catch and score instead of making them slow up and sit down. -2:24: Despite being way outside the pocket, he buzzes his feet right before he throws. I think it's a good demonstration of how good his muscle memory is in his footwork. -4:41: This play is ludicrous, make sure you watch the replay angle they showed so you know what I'm talking about. No one is open on 3rd and 9 and his right tackle (guy sucks) can't even pick up a stunt on a 3 man rush. Kizer stares down the out route and pump fakes to draw the defender over to it with a free rusher in his face. Then he resets and fires a strike into the throwing window he just opened up while that same guy buries him. That's anticipation, patience, composure, intelligence and physical ability all in one play. -0:26: Looks right to hold the safety then makes a good downfield throw -0:45: Full field progression, snaps to his second read and makes a throw from the opposite hash to the sideline from a quickly closing pocket. Shows good anticipation as the receiver wasn't fully out of his break. -1:35: This might've been complete if there wasn't DPI, but it shows good touch because this is the only spot the ball could've been in to be safe and give the receiver a chance. -1:45: Another precise downfield throw where he doesn't make his receiver slow down and hits him in stride. -3:14: More pocket movement, drifting until he finds the touchdown -5:29: More pocket movement and a great throw The fact that he's a dynamic runner on top of all of this is the icing on the cake for me. I think he'll be a franchise QB somewhere.
Big Cat, First of all, thanks for putting this together. Great job! I know it took a lot of time and effort to put that together, so thanks for the effort. really appreciate it and enjoyed watching with your comments in mind. You make a compelling case, and I learned somethings about Kizer. I see what you are talking about and like those things. This definitely raises Kizer in my estimation quite a bit. I still don't want the Jets to take him, however. While I think he has a chance to develop into at least a decent, if not quality starting QB, I don't see a FQB, I'm not sure he'll make it. He could just as easily be a career backup. Following are my reasons why. Positives (ranked in order of importance to me) Can read Ds Goes through progressions Good pocket movement/presence/feel for pressure Strong arm Good accuracy on deep passes Negatives (ranked in order of importance to me) Not very accurate - constantly throwing too high or behind receivers, or underthrowing them Decision-making - tries to go for HR too much and tries to force ball on some situations Calls own number too much and is too slow to be much of a threat running in the NFL and doesn't have the power to compensate (Cam) Needs work on touch I watched each entire video. Following are a sampling of negative things I saw. Most of the bad throws I cite came when the pocket was clean or relatively clean and he had little or no pressure. Vs. Syracuse 5:17 Bad sack 6:59 16 yard sack ala Geno 7:23 Horrible decision, interception - no receiver even there, 3 defenders, threw it right to defender 8:49 Badly underthrown pass 9:13 Threw behind the receiver Vs. Duke 0:41 Bad throw that cost a TD 3:26 Terrible pass to flat 4:26 Pass way too high, even though completed, cost a lot of YAC 5:00 Pass way too high, poor touch, would have been an interception in the NFL 5:30 Held ball too long and took sack 5:56 Terrible high pass 6:11 Didn't lead WR enough, threw behind 6:52 Terrible decision 8:36 Bad underthrow 8:58 Terrible decision going over middle 10:30 Held ball too long in the shadow of his own goal line, should have checked down or thrown ball away, instead was trying to force ball deep and took sack 10:57 Still trying to force ball deep and made a horrible throw resulting in an interception 11:40 Game on the line and he rushed the throw and was inaccurate 11:48 Game on line, had a clean pocket and the WR was wide open. A completed pass could have resulted in a TD. At a minimum would have put them in FG range and could have tied game. Instead they lost. Vs. Army 0:26 His pass was so bad, he almost missed the TD 1:22 Terrible decision. His receivers were covered. His pass could (should?) have been intercepted. He could have thrown ball away, but the better choice was to run right. He could have picked up yardage and quite possibly have scored. 1:35 I don't think the pass would have been compete anyway. IMO it was too high and out of bounds. 1:45 Not good or precise throw. If he led the WR, it would have been a TD. Instead he threw it behind the WR's back shoulder and the WR had to turn and try to track the ball. 2:23 Poor read, and then compounds it by not seeing the defender standing there in the backfield. Sack. 3:01 Bad read and decision. 3:14 They scored a TD, but again it was a bad pass, thrown behind the WR, but the WR makes a good play to catch the pass. 4:03 Stares receiver down, holds the ball too long and then throws the ball too late. 4:16 Slant pass, throws behind WR 4:29 Badly underthrown pass 4:36 Held ball too long. It's good that he was looking to pass rather than run, but this is an instance where he should have run. He would have had at least a 20 yard gain, if not 30 or more as the entire right side of the field was open. 5:16 Clean pocket, WR wide open, ball thrown too high and too hard 5:29 Almost waited too long to throw 6:24 Badly underthrown pass 6:34 Terrible high throw 7:08 Terrible decision - the WR had 3 defenders around him
There's definitely more bad tape than you'd like to see, but I think his positives lay the groundwork for a successful career a lot more than the positives for other prospects. I'd rather see a guy get through his progressions and maneuver the pocket while doing it, with some struggles in between, than an entire reel of him just throwing line drives to wide open receivers. As far as all the bad plays you pointed out specifically, that's sort of the point I was referring to in my stratification between Mahomes/Kizer and Trubisky/Watson. I could also put together a pretty terrible lowlight reel of Mahomes, with him running around the pocket with the ball in one hand like a loaf of bread then firing it into triple coverage. But I choose instead to focus on all the times that it works, because I think he has special traits. With Trubisky and Watson, it's a lot harder to find bad tape, which is probably why so many people have them 1-2. However, it's also a lot harder to find the transferable skills and "wow" plays I've been referencing than with Mahomes-Kizer, which is why I have them 3-4 instead. I'd rather take a swing on a guy who could be a franchise transformer than settle for the next game manager. I compare those guys to QBs like Dalton, Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill, guys who can give you a good regular season record but make it hard to go far in the playoffs without an elite roster backing them up. People may not agree with this, but I think it's better to NOT have an answer at QB than to settle into thinking a guy like Andy Dalton is your answer. He's going to eat up 12-15 years of the Bengals' franchise without ever giving them anything more than solid QB play, and unlikely a SB win unless they give him an absurd team. Although our situation seems much worse, at least we're constantly searching for an answer who might give us better, instead of being complacent. Just my 2 cents for why I like the type of prospects I do.
You also should consider that the games you used in your analysis were all rather weak competition. All of those games should be ND mismatch talent wise. How about his performance in USC, Stanford, Mich. St. games? I don't know how he did but it would be a better test of his talent. Big Cat great job on breakdown.
He doesn't have great arm strength. On deep balls, he elongates his throwing motion to generate more power which will cause problems for him in the NFL.
WOW Big Cat! Thanks for that detailed analysis! I need to look at it more carefully when I get a chance, but I appreciate your effort.
I agree with every single word in this article. Probably the first person I see completely eye to eye with on this QB class. https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/williamson-breaking-top-4-quarterbacks-2017-nfl-draft/
If I only went off what this article contained, out of these four, I would say the Jets should definitely take Mahomes, possibly take Kizer, and pass on Watson and Trubisky. Not that Watson and Trubisky can't be top QBs, but they're going to need the right team to do it. Both Mahomes, and to possibly a lesser degree, Kizer, have had to learn how to deal with lots of pass rushing pressure, which they'll surely be under with the Jets. Kizer may be closer to ready than Mahomes, but not by much, if at all. Mahomes is definitely rough, but given his big arm and playmaking ability, he'll be able to help out right away. And if the Jets don't add somebody like Fournette or Howard, the QB is going to have to able to improvise, and this is a Mahomes strength. I'd like to believe that he could last until their 2nd pick, and they could take Fournette or Howard at 6, then get him, but I think that's taking a big chance on losing their potential FQB.
