2009-10 World Champion Yankees Offseason Thread

Discussion in 'Baseball Forum' started by GQMartin, Nov 5, 2009.

  1. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Oh no question. As I've said in the past, Marte, when on, is ON. He's damn near unhittable when he's throwing well.

    But you can't deny the value of a guy who can come out of the pen to get those tough lefties when needed. It's great to have Coke in that role (minus October) but it's just wonderful to have Coke and Marte to do it.
     
  2. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    This is like the little cousin of the argument that values relievers over starters. You have a guy capable of getting 3-6 high leverage outs, and you want to limit him to one or two batters at a time, and only lefties at that?

    The value of a guy who can come out of the pen to get those tough lefties out pales in comparison to the value of a guy who can come in and get those tough lefties AND righties out. And Marte can certainly be the latter. Seems like a waste to just have him face lefties.
     
  3. mj2sexay

    mj2sexay Active Member

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    Lol JoeJet sucks ass.

    As far as not overpaying for fourth starters the LAST thing I want the Yanks to do is give up anything of value for any of the starters on the trade market unless Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay really are available. I certainly don't want Derek Lowe, Edwin Jackson, or Ricky Nolasco.
     
  4. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Actually, I should have explained myself more fully. (Side effect of assuming everyone knows my full stance on an issue.)

    I'm of the mind that, yes, having a "lefty specialist" in the pen is nice, but that should never be his "only" role. There is absolutely no reason Marte shouldn't be allowed to pitch to righties. Coke either. As long as they prove they can get the outs, there's no reason to pull them.

    I'd definitely hold them back until it was time to face an elite lefty if the opposition has one, but once they get that out, they should be allowed to pitch to righties afterward. (For example, I would have put October's Marte in against Ortiz of a couple years ago and if he got the out, I'd trust him against Manny.)

    But I'd say that about any lefty pitcher. As long as he doesn't suck against righties. It's always made me shake my head when a lefty pitches to just one batter, solely because a righty comes up next. Do you pull a righty every time a lefty comes up? It's another example of the trend toward micromanagement of games, which we all know I'm not a fan of. I'm a fan of situational pitching, but not micromanaging.
     
  5. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    Well, okay... but how is that really different from being a setup guy? How would you be losing anything by giving him that role? Unless you're looking for him to come in to face a lefty in the sixth inning or something, in which case, I still think you're wasting his talent.
     
  6. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Like I said earlier, once you're a "setup guy" you're preserved until the 8th, just like a closer is for the 9th. To me, that's where talent is wasted. I'd rather use him in the 6th with 2 on, none out, with a 1 run lead and their best lefty coming up, than hold off on bringing him in until the 8th.
     
  7. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    I agree that managers don't manage to leverage. But your suggestion is still extreme and wasteful, considering how many times you're going to see the benefit of Marte in that specific situation you suggest vs. how many times you'd not use him for higher leverage situations because he's your "lefty specialist."

    That one lefty in the sixth inning in the situation you mentioned is still a lower leverage situation than almost the entire eighth inning of a one-run game, regardless of situation.

    Leverage Index
     
    #167 Cappy, Nov 17, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2009
  8. SixFeetDeep

    SixFeetDeep Red Hot Robbie Cano

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    i think a lefty guy is important because its a completley different mindset and strategy. if they can become elite at getting lefties out, you have a very useful tool in your bullpen.
     
  9. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    Please explain how it is different.

    Again, please explain. How does one "become elite" at this?

    The reason for most LHH/RHH splits have to do with the angle of the approach of the ball, the direction of the break when facing same-handed batters, and - to a lesser degree - the frequency (or relative infrequency) of seeing lefties. Some pitchers have stuff that works better against lefties or righties, and their own handedness doesn't matter as much.

    But good pitchers can get guys out, period. Look at Mo. He's good against everyone. Burnett was actually better against lefties this year by a significant margin. Sabathia was much better against lefties... downright unhittable, and just very good against righties. But I bet you're glad he got to face both lefties and righties. Joba was slightly below average against both this year, but much better against righties last year... probably because his slider was much sharper last year and more effective when paired with his currently misplaced fastball.

    The bottom line is that Marte gets guys out, regardless of what side of the plate they hit from.
     
  10. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    You know, I still didn't explain myself fully enough, and that's my fault again.

    What I meant is that given we'd have both Coke and Marte in the pen, Marte serves better as not being the setup guy so that he can be brought in whenever needed. I was using the "bring him in against a lefty" example as a guidepost, but I didn't mean to simply relegate him to that role.

    Marte, based on how he pitched in October, is a reliever, not a "lefty reliever." No different than Robertson. Marte's value is, however, increased by being a lefty, so if you have a situation in say, the 6th with runners on and a lefty coming up, you bring him in, rather than hold him back for the 8th.

    To me, he's far more valuable as an "any time, any situation" pitcher than he is a setup guy. Hell, even Robertson is more valuable, but someone has to get the job. Though let's see what happens with Joba in the spring. If he comes back with the same loss of velocity in the starting role, he might become the setup guy again for good. And that might not necessarily be a bad thing. Imagine a pen that goes from the 6th to 7th with the combo of Marte and Robertson (with fill-in work by Aceves and Coke) into the 8th with Joba, on to the 9th with Mo. That would be sick. (Even better when you consider that most days you're going to get a full 6 from the rotation.)

    Right now, without any moves being made, I'd like a rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy going into Spring Training. Give Aceves a shot at the 5 spot (and obviously Joba gets a good opportunity to stay in the rotation.) I know, I know, Joba's a starter. Well, unless he proves he can throw the same as a starter as he does a reliever, he's not a starter. (That doesn't mean I've changed my mind on him, but he does warrant criticism in the rotation.)
     
  11. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    A couple of things:

    1. Leverage is still (typically) higher in the eighth inning than almost any situation in the sixth. The "any time, any situation" guy is still almost always best used in later innings. This isn't always the case, but in close games, it usually is. I mean, in your example, why not just bring Mo in in the sixth inning?

    2. The way he was throwing last year, Joba as a reliever isn't all that impressive. Honestly, I'd rather have Marte or Robertson.

    He does warrant criticism, but I don't think going to the pen is really a solution. He wasn't particularly effective out of the pen this postseason. It was the same inconsistent bullshit he dealt with all year as a starter.
     
  12. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    I see your point. Again, I'm not saying he shouldn't ever be used in the 8th, but I'd rather he wasn't crowned "setup guy." Honestly, I don't even know why anyone is a "setup guy." A closer is one thing, especially when you have Rivera, but every other pitcher in the pen should be available at any time.

    As for Joba, I don't know what to do with him. He threw harder out of the pen. He needs to throw hard to be effective. He doesn't throw as hard as a starter. So given the number of guys we have to start, I'd give him a shot at the rotation, and if he doesn't cut it, I'd rather he work it out in the pen. *shrug* In the end, I just want him to be effective wherever he winds up. Obviously an effective starter is better than an effective reliever, but I'll take whatever "best" I can get.
     
  13. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, but what you'll lose in that situation will be more than offset by what is gained. Bullpens are never managed optimally. But Marte as the "setup guy" is less sub-optimal than how the situation you're proposing would be handled.

    This isn't quite true, though. Yes, he threw harder out of the pen this year, on average... but it still wasn't as hard as he threw as a starter in '08. And it's not even close.

    So the problem isn't the velocity of Joba the starter vs. the velocity of Joba the reliever. The problem is that the overall velocity of Joba in 2009 is far below the velocity of Joba in 2008, pre-injury.

    I'd rather send him to AAA to let him work it out.
     
  14. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    As I said, I won't go crazy if Marte becomes the setup man. I just prefer he's not.

    As for Joba, yes, his overall velocity was down, but the question is why. With what little information we have to work with, the issue of lower velocity came from changing him into a starter. We know that some of his mechanics were tweaked to enhance his longevity under longer appearance conditions. His velocity nudged back higher once we were in October and his defined responsibility became bullpen work.

    Given all of that, it's not unreasonable to surmise that he would perform better as a reliever in the short term with the pro club. Sending him to AAA is definitely an option. I'm just not sure I want to send him down. Not if he can be fixed here while helping the club win. Though I guess if he spent a month down south, if the bullpen/rotation proves solid without him in the spring, it would be okay.
     
  15. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    No. The issue was not that he was "changed" into a starter. Remember, he was a starter first, and was still throwing that hard late in games. Both in the minors and in 2008, he showed that he could maintain his plus-plus velocity into the seventh inning and later. We've seen enough to know that the issue of lower velocity (at the level we saw this year) was not from the difference between starting and relieving.

    Here. Look at this: Link

    That's the Pitch F/X data from Joba's start against Boston (Beckett) in July of 2008. Look at his velocity there. Many/most of his fastballs were above 96mph. His last fastball was 99 mph in the seventh inning! That is the Joba that got all the hype! And deservedly so. That is the Joba that the Yanks would be crazy not to start.

    Here's the next start. Link

    Again topping out at 99mph in late innings.

    Hmm... do we know that? I know I had surmised earlier that his mechanics were tweaked, but I don't remember if anyone in the organization has come out and said that, and we certainly don't know that any tweaks were to "enhance his longevity." My guess at the time was that it was to protect his shoulder, and that's still my guess.

    It nudged higher compared to his 2009 velocity as a starter. But his velocity out of the pen in 2009 was still lower than his velocity as a starter in 2008.

    He was averaging 95 and topping out at 99-100 as a starter in 2008.

    He was averaging 94-95 and topping out at 97 as a reliever in 2009.

    That's still not the Joba we all fell in love with.

    Joba's fastball in 2009 -- regardless of whether he was starting or relieving -- is not what it was. And, honestly, it hasn't been the same since his DL stint in 2008.

    Given his problems, I'm not sure he would be helping the club win out of the pen. His postseason performance wasn't exactly lights out.
     
  16. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    I don't know why I keep trying. :rolleyes:
     
  17. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    What, having a conversation? This bothers you?

    What's the deal?
     
  18. dwalsh

    dwalsh 2006 TGG.com Rookie of the Year Award Winner

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    typically I don't like quoting NoMaas, but this is an article I agree with.

    http://nomaas.org/?p=317
     
  19. ace_o_spades

    ace_o_spades New Member

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    Rich Harden would be awesome, when he's on he's unhittable
     
  20. dwalsh

    dwalsh 2006 TGG.com Rookie of the Year Award Winner

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    yeah, the two FAs I would love to see the Yankees take a chance on are Rich Harden and Nick Johnson... NJ as a DH would probably be able to stay healthy and when he's healthy he's a hell of a hitter
     

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