I don't get it. Isn't the conventional wisdom that Vegas makes the spreads so that 50% will bet on one team, and 50% the other way? With the Jets favored by 4, I can pretty much guarantee that 90% of the action will be to take the Jets giving the points. I mean we were favored by 8 against Denver. I know that the loss took us down a peg or two and we were at home, but does anyone actually feel less confident about us beating the Niners than the Broncos?
i dont like betting on the jets because if they loose its a loose loose situation, anyway i wouldnt do the bet because it is on the west coast and I remember someone said that since Mangini coached the Jets that they never won a game at 4:05 or 4:15 (it was something like that)...ill check out that now
I don't bet period. But I'm pretty sure that the vast mast majority of non-Jet, non-Niner fans will be taking the Jets giving the points. It's too close of a spread for how bad of a team the Niners are perceived to be. A lot of it must be because of our bad performance in Denver. If we would have won I think we'd be 10 point favorites. 1 game shouldn't swing it so much.
Have you read on this board how bad some actual Jets fans think the team is after that loss? The bookies may have a better grasp on psychology than I thought.
alright i just check out that 4:15 and 4:05 thing and whoever posted it on here was wrong because Mangini won at 4:15 against the dolphins in 06 and the chiefs in 07. We also beat the Steelers at 4:05 in 07...so that fact is wrong
Of course the years where we've been good with Mangini ('06 and '08) we haven't had many late games b/c we've been bad the year before. I'm sure we had the most in '07, but we sucked that year so that throws off the record. Not that bookies would look into that anyway.
That's just coincidental nonsense. It has no bearing on whether or not the Jets will win on Sunday. Furthermore, it is not a 4:05 game. The game will be played at 1:05 local time.
Good ol gil, you are more than correct on your prediction of where the action is going. Over 95% of the action is on the Jets. There is a theory called the Bar Stool Pundit Theory. What this means is that you go into a bar and ask someone who they think is going to win. Do this enough and you'll get a pretty good idea where the public(who Vegas is trying to kill) is. This is even more common in the case of the Jets low spread against a bad team. This is exactly what is going on with the Jets-- people are betting them like they have access to Doc's time machine. With that said, fading the public is grand idea if: 1. You have an infinite bankroll like Vegas does, which you don't. 2. You are fading the public in cases where the sharps haven't already moved the line to begin with. 3. You are taking an enormous assumption that Vegas' prediction and calculated risk is correct. I.E this worked great for me last year and I ended up picking 62% for the year. This year, I'm struggling to float at .500. Actually right now I'm below .500 You do well when Vegas does well and you suffer when they do. Recently, they have been getting killed fwiw
well when that was originally posted it was meant for this year. oh wait guess what our 4 or 4:15 games were? New England (game 1) Oakland Denver holy shit half the AFC west! worst still, is that we fucking lost to the AFC west, like they are some super division. yet, their record in games not involving us, makes them one of the worst, if not the worst division in the NFL. Since not even their division leader inspires confidence in them. Just as any team in the NFC north doesnt either. Hell any division with the '08 lions in it, has to at least qualify for the voting of worst division right?
The Jets lose 3 points because they're playing away, and add that to the fact that the Jets have never won in San Francisco, as well as many believing the Jets aren't as real as we made them out to be. Basically it would be +10 if we were playing at home and had beaten the Broncos .
Means opposite. So with 95% on the Jets you fade and side with the 5% on San Francisco. Btw fwiw, the 50/50 myth I would even say is hardly ever achieved. Although that would be an ideal situation it hardly ever happens
I'd guess it usually comes closest when it's good team vs. good team, which means the home team is usually favored by three. Like this week's Pitt-Dal game, though I'd guess that the public may be a little overly high on the Steelers based on last week.
You're right on all points (except the Jets did win in SF in 1983). But that doesn't matter when you're talking interconference match-ups anyway. The fact is the Jets are a better team and they should be pretty angry. The 49ers winning last week helps too I think. The Jets will go out to SF and kick butt, giving 4 points shouldn't be a problem here........T. Jones should have a field day and with Harris back on the other side of the ball, I think Gore can be held in check.
