http://www.thejetsblog.com/2010/10/18/analysis-was-the-offensive-game-plan-too-predictable/ How am I not surprised. I love the 5-1 record, but I still see plenty wrong with Schotty and his philosophy, and the wins aren't blinding me from what is going on. Things better get less predictable after the bye. I knew something looked weird on Sunday. What the fuck happened to ground and pound? 44 throws against the Vikings in the pouring rain still annoys me. Am I finding a reason to complain? No, I'm bringing up a truth on Sunday - that shit was too predictable and it is evidence of why that beat up, shit defense looked so good on Sunday.
Now, now. I can see the posters here wanting to pile on Schotty very soon. Now if Schotty started to change formations and use movement, people would state he was being too cute. I like to attribute it to the fact that we have been successful with certain plays and will continue to run them until the defense stops them, then change it up. What I'd like to know is if the play called was blown up by the defense or was not run correctly by the offense.
is this really predicatble though? I would like this guy to compare the percentage of times each team runs the ball on first down. We are a run first team, a smash mouth team. So what if you know we are running the ball, we are still going to run it and run it well. I think that this research is a little biased per say in that most teams besides the colts, broncos, and saints run the ball on first down most of the time.
This article isn't focusing on execution. Its focusing on philosophy, which is what I've been critical of Schotty ever since Sanchez arrived. Its about time and place playcalling, and in this case its predictable playcalling. I just dont understand how things can be this predictable against such a shitty defense.
Remember, too, that every time you gain five yards or less, that puts the offense in a predicament on second down. Fail^
First hes too cute, then hes too predictable. Remember when they said our players are good enough that we dont have to outsmart the opponent.
The TD run by LT was a nice call. The play Holmes fumbled on was a nice call. Our goal line offense is LT vs the defense and has gone well all season. The Brad Smith calls don't upset the team ebb and flow. I'm not calling Schotty a mastermind but I don't think the criticism here is warranted. If you want a ground and pound offense, we should run all the time making the team predictible. We need to use the offensive weapons we have. Spreading the ball around seems to be working.
you can be both. How about run run pass. The 3rd down should anywhere from 5-1 yards which makes it very managable for Sanchez, and the offense can run anything. On any 3rd and 3-6, a slant route to Cotch or Holmes is ideal, because of how good they run their route. Its the same slant that Manning-Wayne run that is beyond successful for them. I don't ask for much, I ask for ground and pound and slant routes. That's what Rex wants. Rex and I are on the same page.
i'm not a schotty fan but it's hard to argue with the points the "O" is putting up so far this season.
I agree, but the last two weeks have annoyed me. For some reason, the divisional games were well called. But the non divisional games don't get good grades on what was going on. I just find it odd. That +10 Turnover ratio is beautiful.
When you are gaining 2-3 yards running the ball through out the game, its no surprise we pass the ball when we are 2nd & long and 3rd & long. The stats you are reading, are only from when the Jets run the ball on first down. Out of 67% of the times, the Jets will pass on second down 90% of the times. I calculate that to be around 60%. BS stats. Let me break em down for you, with no disrespect. Here are when the 2nd and 3rd down calls after Jets had rushed on first down 1. 2nd & 11 - PASS incomplete 1. 3rd & 11 - PASS incomplete 2. 2nd & 5 - RUSH 2. 3rd & 3 - PASS formation, but sacked 3. 2nd & 7 - PASS - interception 4. 2nd & 8 - PASS 4. 3rd & 6 - PASS 5. 2nd & 4 - RUSH - 2 yards 5. 3rd & 2 - PASS 6. 2nd & 11 - PASS - FD 7. 2nd & 7 - PASS - flagged for offensive PI 7. 2nd & 17 - PASS 7. 3rd & 9 - PASS - another offensive PI 7. 3rd & 19 - RUSH 8. 2nd & 9 - PASS - FD 9. 2nd & 2 - Wildcat RUSH for FD 10. 2nd & 7 - PASS - incomplete 10. 3rd & 7 - PASS - incomplete 11. 2nd & 7 - wildcat RUSH 11. 3rd & 3 - PASS - incomplete 12. 2nd & 2 - RUSH - FD Summary: Jets passed 8 times on 12 2nd down plays including the one after the offensive PI, not 10 out of 11 (or 11 out of 12 if u count the offensive PI call play) Out of the 8 times they passed on second down, they were on average 9.6 yards to go. Is is surprising we pass on 2nd and 9? EVERY single time we passed on 2nd down after a first down run, we were 2nd & 7 or longer. We rushed on 2nd & 5, 2nd & 4, 2nd & 7, and 2nd & 2. Plays are called according to situation, not because someone said Jets will pass on 2nd down 90% of the time if they rushed on first down. We weren't getting yardage on first down runs, so we had to pass. The times we did get some yards, we rushed again. Its no surprise really. Once we went run, then pass, we passed on third downs four times out of five. Average 3rd down yardage was over 8.
Commitment to the run means commitment to the run. How many 20 yard plus td's have we seen in the 4th qtr going back to last year? Those 2 and 3 yard first half gains turn into game breakers late in the game time after time. Now if they could just figure out how to get someone wide open with some consistency we will score a whole lot of points. Maybe when Holmes settles in...
Commitment to the run means setting up the run. If you ground and pound the whole game....it is not only more predicatble it wears out the RB's by the end of the game. You cant just look at what worked and assume it should work every time..you have to look at why it worked. They save a lot of SG's touches for near the end of the game for this reason. Opposing OL's are tired by the time they dial up plays for SG who can flat run over people. No defending that no matter what the defensive scheme is at that point.
Because of the upgrade of personnel and the improvement of Sanchez at QB, the Jets do not have to be an all out ground and pound. Rex himself stated the percentage of run/pass would not be as tilted to the run as last season. Now I do believe in running the ball to be successful and the Jets are second in the NFL in rushing from scrimmage. Rushing (YPG) Complete List 1. Kansas City Chiefs 164.6 2. New York Jets 159.2 3. Jacksonville Jaguars 146.8 4. Houston Texans 140.7 5. Tennessee Titans 138.2 I think we may see more running as the weather gets colder.
Good analysis. It's no secret that if your first down run is unsuccessful (ie. you're look at 2nd and 7 or more) it's a good bet that you're going to pass on 2nd down most of the time. If they were running on a large percentage of 2nd and long I'd be pissed. It looks like the original blogger wanted to make a point but didn't "dig deeper" to look at facts that contradicted his original premise.
were winning off pure talent on offense not by scheme. look at miami and the wildcat 2 years ago when they won the division. they won off of scheme and good playcalling
