Its interesting how we focus on the downside of Fields career and play down his upside. And with Watson we play up the upside of his career and completely ignore the downside. I know some people dont want to hear this and they will focus on why these flags are not worth sweating. But we should at least recognize the risks of what so many are happily plunging into with Wilson at #2. Lets have no illusions. If this picks busts our rebuild will unravel. Lets kick the tires on Wilson's history for real and ask what are the red flags. How did this guy come out of nowhere? Flag 1 - Inconsistent from year to year, and only one good year. Wilson's first season starting at BYU was decent. Not remarkable but okay, throwing 12 TDs to 3 ints for 1578 yards. He did get hurt at the end of the year so he only had 9 starts. His 2nd season he seriously regressed, throwing 11 TDs to 9 ints, and 2382 yards. What is also noteworthy is he after week 5 he missed 4 games due to injury, and both the QBs that replaced him, Baylor Romney and Jared Hall, had more success moving the ball and had better passer ratings. Basically he was the third most effective QB in his second season. In his third season he looked much better and upped his game, finishing with 33TDs to 3 ints and 3692 yards. That is a good season. Not a great season for a top college prospect, but a very good one. So he had an average season, a bad season, and a very good season. However, the lack of consistency cannot be denied. He does not have the history of sustained success at BYU. One good season in three is not a lot to go on for a QB. Flag 2 - His one good season was a cakewalk. Wilson’s one good season was played under exceptional circumstances that were caused by the pandemic. As a result, he played against weak competition. BYU’s schedule ranked 106th in the country, by far the worst of any school in the top 30 of the Sagarin computer rankings. Lets look closer at who Wilson shinned against: Navy 55-3 Troy 48-7 Louisiana Tech 45-14 Houston 43-26 Texas State 52-14 WKU - 45-10 Boise State 51-17 N. Alabama 66-14 Central Florida 49-23 The first thing that jumps out are many of the huge wins are against defenses that DII QBs could trounce. That is padded stats, not bigtime play against a quality opponent. Its not something you can hang your hat (or the #2 pick) on. How excited can we get about a guy whose one good season was against teams that were laughably outmatched? The one decent team he played last season was Coastal Carolina and he lost 22-17. He has no record of beating a true quality team. That is a concern. Most of this schedule is a massive drop off from teams like LSU or OSU. He would take a fair amount of adjustment to move up to that level. Imagine the drop off from going agaist the Buffalo Bills or Miami Dolphins. Is he really ready to lead an NFL team to success? Are you willing to gamble our future on a guy who has only looked good against bottom tier talent? Flag 3 - Concerning injury history. During his senior year in high school he had a torn labrum in his right shoulder that required surgery. In his freshman year of college he had a torn labrum in his left shoulder that required surgery. In his sophemore year had a fractured right thumb and torn ligaments that required surgery. Three out of his last 4 seasons he has gotten hurt and required surgery. Only in the cakewalk season did he stay healthy. As Jet fans, we know a thing or two about QBs needing shoulder surgery. They are prone to re-injuring them. Injuries are always a worry. This is another dangerous factor against Wilson as the #2. Do we want to use that pick on a player who is injury prone? This should be a considerable red flag. All of these flags are large enough to say Wilson is not a safe pick at #2. Some of them are clear flags that his career could be a total bust, from injuries to inconsistency. If we take Wilson he will be my avatar. If that is our fate I'll get behind it. But lets not go into this ignorantly and riding a wave of hype. This decision is our future.
All of these concerns have been discussed at length and either answered to the satisfaction of those open to drafting Wilson, or continuing to be deal-breakers for those who aren't. All I can say is if you watch all the tape available with your own two eyes objectively, I don't see how you can miss the obvious talent and ability. Hell, if you want a shortcut, go over to the Darnold, Fields, Wilson... thread and watch the videos posted by Borat done by TJ O'Sullivan and see the pinpoint accuracy and timing Wilson has, regardless of receivers being open or covered. Yes, these will continue to be "concerns" for some, but for pro talent evaluators, not so much.
Lets discuss these concerns in the open and not hidden on a 70 page thread about 5 QBs. We got a lot of people claiming he is the pick. We've done the hype, now we gotta talk about this rationally. In reality his injury history alone makes him about a mid round pick at best, by a team with fewer holes, who can afford to take bigger risks then we can. Hanging our future on a QB who is injury prone before they even come into the league is foolish at #2.
He's had 1 relevant injury (labrum in throwing shoulder) and put one of the better college QB seasons in recent memory in the books since it was repaired.
So the same surgery to his non throwing shoulder wont be re-injured? How about the surgery to the thumb on his throwing hand? The point is he has missed time 3 out of the last 4 seasons. I know were excited but in reality Wilson's season was against the pee wee league and its not even close to being "one of the best college football seasons in recent memory". You are locked into a serious bias at the moment.
Easy there with the bias claims Mr. "Smith is a combination of Jerry Rice and Randy Moss". Try to make less than 3 threads about him per week before talking to me about bias. The injury to his non throwing shoulder is not relevant, no. It's something that doesn't affect his ability to play and can likely be fixed during the offseason. Drew Brees had a far worse shoulder injury to his throwing arm early in his career and played over a decade of HoF level football after, and rehab wasn't as sophisticated back then as it is now. And yes, it was one of the better college QB seasons in recent memory. Show me another guy who completed 74% of his passes at 11 Y/A with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio. I'll wait.
This is not really the same. When you point out red flags about Smith I listen and weigh them heavily. We got to if we want an honest evaluation. Feel free to point out any to me at any time. Ignoring alarming red flags and explaining them away with fanboy excuses is an actual bias
There have been too many great QB seasons to mention in the last 5 years. Lets just go with the guys in this draft. In 2019 Fields had 41 TDs and 3 ints, against the eastern big 10. Trevor Lawrence had 36 TDs with 8 ints in the ACC. Mac Jones had 41 TDs and 4 ints in the SCC. Trey Lance had 28 TDs and 0 ints at NDS. All of these are against far superior defenses then what BYU faced last year. Zack Wilson had 33TDs to 3 ints, in a revamped schedule. Lets put it this way. BYU was one of 88 D1 teams that didn't opt out of 2020. BYU's strength of schedule was ranked 106th in the nation. That means at least 17 D2 teams had a harder schedule then BYU in 2020. Again, the 106th hardest schedule in the nation. That is not some big accomplishment to tout. In all fairness, that being Wilson's only good season is a considerable red flag.
I'll stick up for you a little bit Ouchy. I think there is potentially a very legit downside to Wilson and I'm very leary of spending the #2 overall pick on him. If he turns into a top 12 NFL QB for 10+ years its a fine move. But if he doesn't? Holy shit.
Thanks, but don't do it for me, do it for the team. The reality is all three of the red flags I mentioned are too big to ignore. There is no reasonable way we can justify the risk at #2.
Well..they are not Rolling with Sam Darnold? Right?? Wouldnt that be a Shocker??? and unfortunately no D Watson running wild in Metro area..sigh And we cant get Lawrence (thank you fucking idiot Gase and your meaningless Win ggrrr) So its a gonna be Wilson ..Fields or Lance I am a Optimist so I wont say " pick your Poison" ..but let just say I have fingers and toes crossed with Candles lit haha The Dark Horse has to be Fields having those tough Opponents from both SEC and Big 10
With the obvious disclaimer that I don't have access to the scouting/evaluation expertise that the Jets do I agree. Not worth the risk. I actually wouldn't be afraid to continue on with Darnold at all as I've previously posted. He may not be an all time great in the making but I think he's solid at worst. What the Jets REALLY need in my opinion are good players, especially on offense and now that they finally have the golden opportunity to fix the living hell out of that problem if they squander it all on a bust QB pick it is going to be VERY hard for me to personally swallow. Sewell looks like a Hall of Fame player and if they trade down they could get either a guy like Pitts or one of the WR guys.... the Jets haven't had anybody even close to that impact level since Santonio Holmes 75 years ago. And for the school of thought that A) we need a new QB for sure (I'm not so sure) and 1A) this #2 pick represents the best and perhaps only chance at efficiently getting one.... Its not like that is some insane opinion, but I suspect many of those espousing it hadn't even heard of Zach Wilson at this point last year. Someone new and shiny comes along most every year to get everybody excited. It would be my strong preference to just chill out and get some surefire good offensive players FIRST. Clean up your mess, see what you have with the Darnold/new coaching tandem when he isn't getting slaughtered on most every snap and getting one chance to convert a 3 and 9 because you handed off to Frank Gore the first two times for no reason, and go from there. If they use the #2 pick on Wilson holy crap they better be sure they aren't making a mistake and I don't think there is any way to be sure you aren't.
Well NC is a Friend...and if they pick Wilson I can take solace that NC did his homework (he usually does a good job) on the BYU QB versus the rest of what's out there and I will leave it at that heh
Mahomes just had the same surgery so KC is probably cutting him soon. Lawrence also had the same surgery so he’s falling to the 2nd round.
I have a relative that played at Navy and against Paxton Lynch. I watched the Navy - Memphis game personally and shit my pants when Denver selected him in the first round. Elway has CTE. No doubt. True, Wilson competition is suspect at best. But his talent is far superior to previous lower division selected QBs. But I will tell you this... if Jets do not selected Wilson, I will absolutely have him on my fantasy team. That kid goes for the home run constantly!
No need to go to extremes to defend the injuries. Neither Lawrence or Mahomes have been injured three of the last four seasons. That is enough to be a pattern that has to be accounted for. He's not going to be playing North Alabama again next year. People are going to actually hit him.
Ouchy has a point about Wilson no doubt. He has a injury history that is troubling. The strength of schedule is also a concern IF you rush him in to the starting line up. Regardless if the pick is Wilson or Fields both players in my opinion need to sit for a year to get brought up to speed. The thing is Wilson has a natural ability to throw the football with an awesome release and is accurate. It doesn’t matter if you play D2 or high school or for Alabama if your guy is covered he’s covered and if you can hit those windows it’s special. My worry if we draft him is we will ruin him like we ruined Darnold by getting him to start too soon because he’s the number 2 pick. It killed Darnolds confidence.
