The Jets drafting another defensive lineman baffled me. Two years in a row, and two defensive lineman. The whole time, I thought for sure we would get an outisde linebacker. Nope. Just when I think I'm starting to get what Rex is up too he changes course. And I guess thats the point. That's why he is a defensive (genius) guru and I am just a guy on the internet. Now this drafting pattern has led some to speculate that the team is moving to a 4-3 base instead of the 3-4. Or maybe the team is planning to run the 46 (which incidently is still 4-3). Yeah, they hired the defensive line coach from Minnesota - and Minnesota ran a 4 man line - but I don't think that really matters. Heck before this we had a former defensive back as the line coach. And in the most overly simplistic explaination of the difference between a 3-4 and a 4-3, well, its whether or not one guy puts his knuckles on the turf before the snap of the ball. Mike Pettine sums it up. He said the best 11 defensive players will play. And after all, Rex does whatever the heck he wants on defense and consistently finds success. We have seen Joe McKnight appear on defense. We saw Shaun Ellis at nose wreaking havoc on Tom Brady. We saw a 2009 team ranked number 1 in overall defense and whatever-that-guys-name-was was playing cornerback across from Revis. We saw Aaron Maybin rise from the first round bust scrap heap and do some wonderful things for us. We also saw Eric Smith get way to many snaps on defense last year (only second to Revis, per Cimini). We saw Kerry Rhodes turn into nothing, get verbally abused, and traded. We never saw Vernon Gholston at all. Rex will do what Rex does, which is to try and confuse the heck out of you. So rambling aside, who are the best 11 defensive players on the team? Revis (1) and Cro (2) are the CBs. No doubt. Settled. Even if the opposing offense lines up in a one receiver set, I think Cro will stay on the field even as a safety type player. Sione Pouha (3) was resigned. He will be over the center almost every snap. Add to this Kenrick Ellis has apparently been asked and is losing a lot of weight. David Harris (4) is not only good but he is also making boat loads of cash. Quinton Coples (5) and Mo Wilks (6) are the recent draft choices and will play even if they don't play great. Obviously, I hope they do. From here things get much less certain. We still need two safeties, two or three more linebackers and perhaps a defensive lineman. Its going to be interesting. Calvin Pace sucks in my opinion. He had a few moments, but hey, so did Aaron Maybin with a lot less playing time. I think both of their acheivements have been based upon scheme first. Bryan Thomas is back from knee and apparently upper body surgery. People have always hated on Thomas but he has been pretty serviceable - but I'm not sure if he'll be able to return to form. Bart Scott's got some kinda drama surrounding him - but he has apprently lost weight and is looking faster (he also played OLB for at least one season in Baltimore). This Demario Davis kid is getting talked up but so what until he does something on the field. We got a bunch of scrap heap safeties to sort through. In summary, I have no idea who the best 11 players are on defense. And the more I think on it, the more I think Rex and Pettine have no idea either. We are going to need camp and preseason and maybe even a few regular season games to find out.
Its not gonna be that much of a surprise... You got Wilkerson, Coples, Revis, Cromartie, Harris, Pace as your everydown guys. Pouha on first/2nd downs Scott on first/2nd downs Davis on 3rd downs with room to carve out more Maybin on passing situations with room to improve Thomas as a rotational player Ellis possibly playing 3rd downs and giving Pouha a breather as needed (hell well be lucky if he gets on the field period) Landry/Bell when healthy with Smith resting them (this is gonna be a straight platoon based on whose healthy/not tired) Devito rotational player for 1st/2nd downs Wilson in nickle formations Then you got an open battle for dime corner, this is the big surprise for our 2012 season I dont really forsee any other major surprises
Thats still a lot of moving parts. And I think Pace and Scott are getting fazed out. Bryan Thomas is done as well. So there is going to be some open competition going on. We may yet know who wins these jobs.
Pace and Scott are getting paid HUGE money still, I promise you theyre gonna play and play big. Not to mention Pace is our only 3-4 OLB who is above average, so I would expect the franchise to really ride him out this year. Scott again plays a huge role on this team and Rex loves him. Not to mention I wouldnt expect Davis to comeout as a rookie and unseat him, especially with how much people have praised Scott for truly getting his ass back in shape (plus this is basically a contract year for Scott/Pace since they BOTH know theyre getting cut after this, so theyre gonna work their asses off). Thomas is a rotational player, and alot of the other guys are just situational/rotational. I mean I dont expect to see guys like Devito on the field in passing situations, and guys like Maybin or Wilson on the field in rushing ones.
The two things I got my eye on are Maybin bulking up and Kenrick Ellis slimming down. And they were asked to do it. So there is a plan that has yet to be unfurled.
Its getting them both in shape to play their position. Maybin was simply way too small to be a 3-4 olb or a 4-3 DE and Olinemen were kicking his ass. Ellis was fat and out of shape, and couldnt even do a single pullup. Not to mention slimming down means he could be more useful in passing situations or in a 4-3.
But this is where I'm going here. Yes, Maybin adding weight to play OLB... we may have a new OLB. Its like a free gift if it works out. Ellis losing weight... perhaps so he can be a second DT. The weight would be great for a nose tackle. But its looking like they may not want him to be a nose anymore. This stuff about the pull up... I don't know. They brought Ellis in for a work out. Did they not determine if he was capable of a pull up then? I'm think that is some Rex propaganda to tweak a guy. Otherwise, its a big freaking insult to a guy who is about to go in the clink.
Well he was 330 pounds, I mean pullups arent exactly easy for HUGE guys to do. And I dont think Rex would just flat out lie, to tweak a guy.
3-4, 4-3, or 46, it doesn't matter. These days NFL defenses play more snaps in sub-packages than in any "base" defense. So to me the question is, who plays in those sub-packages? You're pretty much guaranteed to see Revis, Cromartie, and Wilson on the field, and the coaching staff has already declared their intentions of putting Wilkerson and Coples out there. David Harris is clearly the best LB, and Calvin Pace is clearly the best edge player on the roster. That leaves four spots. Depending on situation, I think one spot is a rotation for Pouha (or maybe Ellis) and Maybin. When Maybin comes in he and Pace line up wide (one of them probably standing up) with Coples and Wilkerson on the interior. When Pouha comes in Coples kicks out to end. Obviously two spots are gonna be safeties, and gonna be a rotation of the top three guys. The last spot will be the most rotated, or shared among players. It could be whoever the 3rd safety is, or whoever wins the #4 CB spot (Jets played more dime last year then anyone in the NFL) or it could be whoever the coaches trust more between Bart Scott and Demario Davis.
We needed a passrusher, didn't have to be an OLB. RR won't be abandoning the 3-4, but he'll throw a dozen looks at you. I'm particularly curious to see the projected 3rd down DL Maybin-Wilk-Coples-Pace. That'd be dope as heck.
Rex pretty much said that pAce was supposed to be the "designated pass rusher" last year. It didn't happen. I'm not sure anymore, unless you have a gifted, outrageous athlete, that anyone can be the "pass rusher". A few years ago, the Jets, Pitts and Green Bay were all running the 3-4. The Jets got the majority of their sacks from DBs, Pitts from OLBs and Green Bay from DL. Its becoming clear to me, aside from again, the outrageous gifted athlete, pass rush is scheme.
Why didn't Rex Ryan just scheme up some pass rush last year then? You think the Patriots have had a crappy pass rush because Bill Belichick doesn't know how enough about scheme? Scheme is meaningless without good players.
Yes, I think you are exactly correct. Scheme is meaningless without good players, but especially without good players, its all about scheme. But even the best scheme may not always work. We had some pass rush last year. It was the Aaron Maybin scheme. Unfortunately, at his low weight, he wasn't an every down player.
Pouha and Scott's snaps are going to go way down in my opinion. Neither of them should be on the field on 3rd down and it's too easy for the Jets to get caught on the field by a no-huddle exploiting them. I'm guessing Pouha plays 50% of the snaps this season and Scott a good bit less than that. I expect both of them to play more early in the season than after things settle down midway through. I think the odds are even money both are gone after the season.
Pouha and Scott are guaranteed to make $8.7M this year between the two of them. That's a lot of money for a couple of role players.
Wait a second? Very true re getting exploited by the no huddle, but Pouha just signed a new contract. I don't think he is going anywhere.
The contract he signed involves a 2.3 million hit if he is cut next season vs 6.16 million if he is not. He's going to get cut unless the Jets cap situation is much better than it looks right now or they lose the services of some other big guys. That contract was never meant to play out.
Interesting theory. I'm not too sure though. I think with Scott and Pace getting cut, a bunch of cash gets freed up. That might be enough. I'll have to look over at nyjetscap.com. Great site if you haven't already seen it.
That's where I was looking. Pouha has cap hits over 6 million each of the next two seasons. There's just no way the Jets put that kind of investment into a one-dimensional run stuffer. Next year is the year that makes the most sense for them to cut him unless they have a lot of problems elsewhere on the line, a situation made less likely by them drafting DL in the 1st round the last two seasons. Next year the Jets cut Bart Scott and Sione Pouha. They either renegotiate Calvin Pace to a more realistic figure both salary-wise and cap wise or they cut him too. Pace actually has a better chance to stick around than Pouha because he has a role in a 4 man front whereas Pouha really doesn't at this point. I don't really think any of them will be around next year though. They all violate the cardinal rule of an NFL players existence at this point: they're old and expensive.
