These teams already clinched spots: Bears 13-2 (clinched homefield advantage) Saints 10-5 (clinched NFC South) Seahawks 8-7 (clinched NFC West) Cowboys 9-5 in contention (record, NFC record, divisional record): Eagles 8-6, 7-3, 4-1 Giants 7-8, 6-5, 3-2 Packers 7-8, 6-5, 4-1 Panthers 7-8, 5-6, 4-1 Falcons 7-8, 5-6, 3-3 Rams 7-8, 5-6, 2-4 Games of interest: Week 16 Eagles at Cowboys Week 17 Giants at Redskins Packers at Bears Lions at Cowboys (if Eagles win on Christmas night, this game may help decide the East) Rams at Vikings Panthers at Saints Falcons at Eagles Seahawks at Buccaneers (for seeding purposes) If the Eagles and Giants tie at 8-8: the Giants would win the tiebreaker based upon a better record in common games (Eagles would be 6-8; Giants would be 8-6) If the Falcons and Panthers tie at 8-8: the Panthers would win the tiebreaker based upon having a better division record If Eagles, Giants, Packers, Falcons, Panthers, and Rams all finish 8-8: the Giants and Packers would make the playoffs as the two Wild Card teams If Giants, Packers, Falcons, Panthers, and Rams all finish 7-9: the Eagles and Giants would make the playoffs That's what I figured out so far. What is interesting is all the 7-8 teams will be on the road in Week 17. Two of them could be favored (Giants and Rams). The others will definitely be underdogs.
This could be the first year in league history where a team with a losing record will make the playoffs in a non strike-shortened season. (Cleveland and Detroit made the playoffs with 4-5 records in 1982. Eight teams in each conference made the playoffs that year. Both teams were wasted in the first round of the 16-team Super Bowl Tournament. The Browns lost to the Raiders 27-10 and the Lions were skinned in Washington 31-7.)
It is possible they could finish 7-9 and play at Philadelphia or Dallas in the first round, which are two places where they won games this year. That would be crazy.
It appears to me that the Giants do control their own fate. I heard one person (I think on ESPN) say that none of the 7-8 teams control their own destiny. I'm not sure that is accurate. I can't find a scenario where the Giants could win in Week 17 but still miss the playoffs.
I have heard that if the Giants win they're in. I believe that if they lose, and the other four 7-8 teams also lose, they are also in.
Good. So it appears I got that right about them being 8-8 and in. If they go 7-9 and all the other 7-8 hopefuls also finish 7-9, the Giants will make the playoffs. That scenario I know is accurate. Giants 7-9 Rams 7-9 Packers 7-9 Panthers 7-9 Falcons 7-9 Panthers would eliminate Falcons based on a better division record. Rams and Panthers would be eliminated based on weak conference records. Giants would eliminate Packers based on better record vs common opponents (Giants 1-4, Packers 0-5). Packers and Giants common opponents- Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Saints
The "win and they're in" is what WNBC said on tonight's news; of course that's not a guarantee that it's right, but I believe that your analysis has it correctly. Apparently the break the Giants got was SF losing to Arizona, since apparently under some circumstances SF would have made it over them. I have to admit that the thought of a 7-9 team getting into the playoffs is perversely attractive, but since it would be the Giants, I can't be rooting for that.
I don't know, they'd be a trivia question for the rest of time. "Who's the worst playoff team in NFL history?" "The Giants!" That's got to count for something. I also love the idea of them getting in based on a 1-4 vs 0-5 common opponent record. That perfectly sums up the NFC this year.
u can win a divison with a 8-8 season in the NFC, but 12-4 might only b good 4 the 4th seed over here. the nfc is a disgrace
The 2006 season is reminiscent of the 2004 season because of the poor records of the NFC teams and the playoff probables of the AFC. NFC Playoff Seeds 1. Eagles (13-3) 2. Falcons (11-5) 3. Packers (10-6) 4. Seahawks (9-7) 5. Rams (8-8) 6. Vikings (8-8) Those two 8-8 teams won Wild Card games. The Rams beat the Seahawks 27-20. They beat the Seahawks three times that season. The Vikings mooned the Packers 31-17. AFC Playoff Seeds 1. Steelers (15-1) 2. Patriots (14-2) 3. Colts (12-4) 4. Chargers (12-4) 5. Jets (10-6) 6. Broncos (10-6) The most realistic scenario right now is that the Broncos and Jets will be the two AFC Wild Card teams. That would mean five of the six 2004 AFC Playoff teams will participate in the 2006 AFC Playoffs.
Today's online version of Newsday (no print version today) says that the Giants do NOT control their destiny, but don't give the details. It apparently has to do with Philly? Anyone have any idea what this is about?
From what I can tell it has nothing to do with Philly. If Philly lost their last 2 games they would actually finish behind the Giants based on common opponent records. Green Bay is the only possible WC contender that could squeeze out the Giants if they won next week, and they would need a ton of help. In a head to head matchup between the two teams it would come down to the strength of victory tiebreaker where the Giants currently hold a 12 game advantage. Of course assuming wins for both teams next week this lead would be trimmed to 4 games. Even with that though the Packers would need a ton of help from the likes of Detroit(who's playing Dallas) and Arizona(playing SD) as well as hoping that nearly all of the teams the Giants beat lost as well.
Looks like you're right. Here is the official NFL word from the Giants web site: I can't see any reason why the Giants would be rooting for Philly, so Newsday got that wrong.
yeah, Giants don't control their own destiny. If they end up in a 3-way tie at 8-8, they could be out.
So what scenario would the Giants not make the playoffs if they win next week? Those scenarios confuse the hell out of me
It's a complicated one involving Green Bay and records against common opponents. These guys estimate the chances of it happening at 1%.
Yeah, last night I don't believe I ever bothered trying to figure out if only GB and NY finished at 8-8. That's the one scenario where the Giants could be out with a win.
