Jets Fans: Don?t Be Scared to Be Optimistic By Joe Caporoso | June 3rd, 2008 E-mail | Print | Share I was reading through Rich Cimini?s mailbag today and a nice piece by Sporting News on the Jets offensive line, when I caught myself starting to feel very good about this upcoming season. Is this such a bad thing? Is it wrong or foolish to believe the Jets can be a very good team this year just one season after going a dismal 4-12? The answer is no. The Jets have talent, a good mix of experience and youth, a creative coach with a good defensive mind, and a very manageable schedule. Let?s take a look at how this team has developed the past 2 and 1/2 years under Mangini. In 2006, the Jets surprised everybody and made the playoffs for a few reasons. Chad Pennington provided consistent quarterback play. A group of average players had career seasons: Victor Hobson, Bryan Thomas, Cedric Houston, Anthony Clement, etc. Another group of young players had their breakout year: Kerry Rhodes, Jerricho Cotchery, Justin Miller, and they got a surprisingly high amount of contributions from their rookie class. Beyond that, they took advantage of an easy schedule and found ways to out scheme more talented teams. Unfortunately in 2007, Mangini and Tannenbaum overestimated their talent level. They were foolish for relying on Clement another year at tackle and for thinking Adrien Clarke could fill in for Pete Kendall competently. Hobston and Thomas were major letdowns at linebacker, and their consistent receivers from the year before were injury plagued. By the end of the season, the Jets had a roster lacking talent and the skill set necessary to fit the coach?s desired systems: a 3-4 defense, and a power rushing offense. As we all know, the Jets have revamped their roster. Theoretically, they should have 5 new starters on defense from opening day last year (Pace, Gholston, Jenkins, Eric Smith/Abram Elam, Justin Miller/Dwight Lowery), along with 3 new starters on offense (Faneca, Woody, Richardson). Beyond that, first round pick Dustin Keller should see major reps as a H-Back and #3 receiver. They have a new cast of role players on offense with Bubba Franks, Jesse Chatman, Chansi Stuckey, and Marcus Henry all in the mix. What kind of team do I expect the Jets to be in 2008? 1. I expect them to have a clock controlling offense, that relies heavily on the running game. As I said before, expect a very productive year from Thomas Jones. Yet, beyond him expect Leon Washington?s role to increase. Regardless of what some writers are assuming, the additions of Jesse Chatman and Musa Smith are no threat to Washington because they are both entirely different backs. Chatman is a power running back in a similar mold to Thomas Jones, who should be good in short yardage or to give him a quick break. Smith is a combo fullback/halfback, who could also be used in short yardage and might not even make the roster. Washington is the team?s hurry up/3rd down back/ and has a decent package of plays scripted to get him in the open field. 2. Staying on the offense, I expect Kellen Clemens to win the starting job and be a competent starter who plays at a similar level to Chad Pennington in 2006, with hopefully less interceptions. The Jets should take advantage of the running game to set up occasional shots down the field, and should work the intermediate passing game with Coles, Cotchery, and Keller. Expect Cotchery to move into the #1 spot this year, and have more receptions and yards than Coles but still expect both to be at or above 1000 yards. 3. I think the defense is going to be very, very good. They finished the year playing at a high level last season and they have done nothing but get better. There is excellent depth at the outside linebacker, and a big time nose tackle in place who is highly motivated. Kerry Rhodes and Darrelle Revis are both rising stars in the secondary, and David Harris should be even better in year two. I am not going predict any stats for players or records for the team this early, I will save that until training camp is well underway but the Vegas line for the Jets is 7.5 wins, which is a good sign since it is up 3.5 just from the off-season. Personally, I am taking the over. Minicamp Show - Mandatory minicamp starts Thursday and Chris Baker is supposed to show up and talk about his contract situation, should be interesting. This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 3rd, 2008 at 2:29 pm
The problems with the Jets going from 06 to 07 were many, but they started with bungling the Kendall deal. It's all well and good to see virtue in the team's negotiating position, but playing hardball when they had no plan B was just plain stupid. And Clarke was no Plan B. The right side was weak enough in 06, and now they had a huge hole in the left side. Plus no bench. Ugly went in, and ugly was what we saw all year from the OL. DL. Poor results from moving Robertson into NT in the 3-4 were evident in 06, too. They did nothing to resolve that last off season, and nothing improved in taht regard in 07. Inexplicable, really. LB. Picking Harris was great, but he didn't make up for the continued non-contribution of Vilma, Thomas's drop off and Hobson playing himself off the team. This unit has to be better this year. Last off season as with Robertson they let another year go by with Vilma's poor fit not addressed. How did that work out? DB. In fairness, they entered the off season without a single solid starter at CB. Picking Revis was a great move. Leaving the other CB situation unresolved was not. Perhaps they were counting on Miller, who got injured, but they should have imo found a way to cut Barrett, who we saw far too much of last year. WR. Finding the talent in Cotch was one of the best parts of 06, but going into 07 with McCariens ill suited to the 3rd WR spot, perhaps the most important bench spot, was a stupid move, too. Everybody knew he sucked, and there he was. When Coles first was hurt and then went out, this was a huge factor in the team's folding last year. RB. Jones and Washington I like. So it follows I think getting Jones was a good move last year. The problem for him was the rest of the offense pretty much sucked. He should do better this year, and we all love Washington. Which brings us back to Qb. I know all the reasons why Mangini annointed Chad the starter last off season, but going into the season with him as Qb was the single biggest factor in the team's lack of success. So, if Clemens can pick it up by any meaningful percentage, the OL stays healthy and the left side plays up to its talent, the running game should improve. Baker's situation is unresolved, but the TE position should contribute more to the passing game this year. Wideout is still too thin. I hope they pick someone up. On D, all three corps should be improved, but by how much is not clear. I am still concerned about who starts at Cb opposite Revis.
In general, I like the article. I see the season unfolding pretty much as he sees it... clock-controlling... heavy doses of running which opens up the occasional shot downfield. I see Clemens starting at QB also, unless he really blows it at TC. I see Cotchery fianlly emerging as the #1 against the aging Coles and having a great season. If Chansi stays healthy I look for him to contribute greatly. I would have liked for us to find a real deep threat, an experienced, prototypical TO/Moss-like WR in F/A, but perhaps that will still happen. Not absolutely essential though. And the TEs... not too much mention besides Keller, but we've got the potential there for more plays. I don't know what will become of #40 Joe Kowalewski now, but whatever... I expect less 3-and-outs this year and more 3rd down conversions as Schottenheimer throws a multitude of looks at them. The new O-line is the biggest factor though, IMO, which the writer fails to emphasize. The confidence factor should be high as a result. 1st downs will come because the attitude will be, "We can do it and nobody's gonna stop us." Keeping the chains moving will accomplish two things: score points and keep the opposing OFF off the field (read: Tom Brady). I agree with his analysis of our DEF too. This team has the potential to be an awesome DEF. The one corner is still up for grabs, but I feel like we have enough talent to present a good one in time for September. The addition of Jenkins is huge. Jenkins is a monster and from what I'm reading, coming here is almost like some sort of "rebirth" for him. His weight is down and he's ready to prove to the world that the Jets made a terrific decision in going for him. With him as the anchor (the anchor we really haven't had with the misplaced Robertson as NT), all things are possible and it will start from the inside out. If opposing DEFs have to start out every play worrying about Jenkins, that paves the way for LBs and everyone else to have a field day. But now, as far as the initial statement, "Don?t Be Scared to Be Optimistic" we're still Jets fans, remember?
That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. The rest of the article was good, but saying Chad was the biggest factor in going 4-12 is just dumb.
I'm not even going to be able to mention this to my Polish wife. She'll be devastated. Maybe if I don't make any more comments about the "Kielbasa Kid" in her presence, she won't even notice he's gone.
In OTAs, Andre Woolfolk was hurt the first 1 1/2 weeks, then on his debut, was 2nd team. Mangini is no idiot on DBs. Watch mini-camp very carefully. Andre has the talent and I believe Mangini realizes this, but of course he must earn it. I am stepping out on not just a limb but a strong branch declaring that by mid camp, Andre will be either in a heated battle for the other corner spot or will be the opposite corner, and if he does not end up the corner, whomever proves they can hold down that spot will have been pushed so hard they will be solid and Andre will be the nickel.... WU out
It's all going to come down to injuries, QB play and coaching, not necessarily in that order. If the Jets get lucky on injuries then their poor depth won't be much of a negative factor and they have a chance to do something next year for 9 or 10 wins. If Clemens is ready to go they might get to 9 even with a few injuries. If the coaches actually coach well enough to execute the plan on defense that'll help also. Lots of people have said it's the player's fault for not executing on defense the last couple of seasons. My take is that if this is true then it's the GM's fault for having lousy players on the roster. One way or the other the lack of execution on defense can be traced right to the top, either the head coach or the GM. That has to change this year for anything to be different.
I'm not so sure anything has to change at the top for us to have improved execution on defense. In fact, I'm glad we haven't had much change. I'm talking about Tangini's approach and commitment to the 3-4. Last year, we just weren't able to amass the proper personnel for it. We still basically tried playing the 3-4 as much as possible and the execution wasn't what we expected, so if they're at fault, fault them for that. But this year, instead of changing anything involving that 3-4 commitment, they did the opposite and took positive steps to commit even further. That's a good thing, IMO. I'm quite satisfied with what we've done this offseason and, in fact, I'm surprised I don't see a lot more articles applauding that. We've got a significantly improved 3-4 now. But I suppose no one will applaud it until they see the "proof of the pudding." Wait until our DEF comes out roaring this year and sports writers take notice big time. Then you're going to see all kinds of articles on how well Tangini did in the offseason.
I hope your right about this. I think Pace is the key. If he is for real and we can get somebody to play Cb our Defense might surprise.
It's still going to be on the coaching. The Jet's defense in 2004 was a direct result of Donnie Henderson being put in complete command of the unit and the things that he did to improve it's play, starting with creating a completely new MLB role in the defense to take advantage of Jonathan Vilma's sideline to sideline instincts. In 2005 the Jets lost Jason Ferguson to free agency and Eric Barton to injuries and had a bunch of other injuries keep players out of the defensive lineup for parts of the year and it all fell apart. That's why I say injuries are the first factor and then coaching is next in line. The 2003 and 2004 Jets were miles apart in performance on defense and the biggest difference was Donnie Henderson and his attitude and coaching replacing Ted Cottrell's laidback style.
Expect Cotchery to move into the #1 spot this year, and have more receptions and yards than Coles but still expect both to be at or above 1000 yards. ok i am optimistic for playoffs but seriously? why would we expect this? i expect cotch to get 85-100 catches but why expect to get 1000 yards... each
If they both stay healthy they probably both will be in the vicinity of 1,000 yards at the end of the season. That's the track record both of them have established at this point for 16 starts. If they get hurt obviously that won't happen. If Coles gets hurt early I think Cotchery could pretty easily put up 1,300 yards as the main target all season, maybe 1,500.
Quiet! He hasn't awaken from his afternoon nap yet. But I guess if that thread titled "The Jets Since 1960" didn't wake him up, nothing will.
